If you paid attention to the sales reports over the last few months, you might remember that I penned an article last month stating, that with the current economy in dire straits, most everyone was losing steam. It may actually boil down to the big winner in 2008 may be the one who loses less sales for the year, rather than who can post the biggest gains.
As the mainstream makers all tend to slide, it is interesting to note that few smaller focused makers are actually posting gains. These companies arguably have found their niche, and are attractive to those still buying in the market. With that said, even looking at all of the poor sales the market appears to still have buyers, but these buyers are looking and demanding more for their money.
So take a look at the luxury market, and we still see similar sales carnage with a few notable exceptions actually being up. Look pretty close to BMW and Lexus figures over the last few months and you notice that while BMW is back on the rise, Lexus continues to lose momentum each month. If the current trend continues then Lexus, continual bleed off of sales will intersect with BMW's slight increases and we will have a changing of the guard.
Sometimes these shifts in power are only for a month or two, but in this case the only really new model in Lexus stable is the IS-F all other are basic refreshes. BMW on the other hand, has a freshly redesigned 3-Series, the all new X6 SAV, and the 1-Series already in the stable to bolster sales. By all accounts these are major releases and the early sales will continue to bolster BMW’s sales.
When will this shift occur? If the trend continues, then the math indicates we will see the changing of the guard in June sales or possibly in July. At that time BMW should be in the better position to maintain the lead until Lexus next salvo of new models.
So are you ready for a changing of the guard?