Back in December and again in April I wrote an articles depicting the beginning of the decline in the Luxury Car market in the US. At that time I trended the progress of the luxury car market stating from the July of 2007 the beginning of the sales woes for many luxury manufacturers to the present. Well it is time again for another update and at least one outcome of the predictions I had made at that time.
First up are the given factors:
1. The figures you will see are for the last for the last 12 months marking the beginning of the crumbling of US sales to the present, and are for trending purposes only within that time frame.
2. The manufacturers are grouped into three categories compromised of the players of that region.
a. The “Pacific Rim” grouping is comprised of Lexus, Acura, and Infiniti.
b. The “European” contingent is represented by: BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Volvo Land Rover, and Jaguar.
c. The American delegation is represented by Cadillac and Lincoln
3. All figures are based on gross sales rather than DSR percentages reported by some manufacturers thereby placing everyone on an even playing field.
Group Sales:
Our Pacific Rim group is holding to the industry trend as far as sales performance is concerned selling 597,121 units over the last 12 months losing a collective total of 58,287 units over last year. Sales figures are down 8.89% over this period. Not bad for the current economy, but showing that their customer are sharing the same concerns and encountering the same difficulties of the masses.
Pacific Rim | | |
Current | Previous | Actual |
41928 | 56193 | -25.39% |
51981 | 58515 | -11.17% |
45912 | 51133 | -10.21% |
52048 | 59718 | -12.84% |
44429 | 45880 | -3.16% |
40041 | 44099 | -9.20%a |
64792 | 69403 | -6.64% |
48362 | 54301 | -10.94% |
47960 | 49289 | -2.70% |
49733 | 52401 | -5.09% |
58887 | 58766 | 0.21% |
51048 | 55710 | -8.37% |
597121 | 655408 | -8.89% |
-58287 | | |
The European contingent is actually fairing a bit better in general compared to the Pacific Rim. Their sales have totaled an impressive 787,641 units however they are down collectively only 18,268 units. More volume and less than 1/3rd of the losses for the period, equates to a drop of only 2.27%. Obviously the economic concerns for these buyers are different from our aforementioned group.
European | | |
Current | Previous | Actual |
59284 | 67740 | -12.48% |
67786 | 72088 | -5.97% |
66216 | 68068 | -2.72% |
65979 | 70948 | -7.00% |
56878 | 58937 | -3.49% |
53187 | 57910 | -8.16% |
81752 | 86876 | -5.90% |
69424 | 68604 | 1.20% |
66720 | 61605 | 8.30% |
65040 | 62515 | 4.04% |
70493 | 66095 | 6.65% |
64882 | 64523 | 0.56% |
787641 | 805909 | -2.27% |
-18268 | | |
On a side note if we broke out the big three German manufacturers on their own and performed a direct comparison against the big three on the Pacific side of the equation. We find that collectively the Germans actually outsold the rival group with 630,252 vehicles. But the most interesting note is they are only down 159 units in sales for the same period. Down just an amazing .03% for the last 12 months!
Germans | | |
Current | Previous | Actual |
48723 | 52598 | -7.37% |
55788 | 57248 | -2.55% |
54736 | 54311 | 0.78% |
51910 | 54957 | -5.54% |
45491 | 46187 | -1.51% |
41628 | 45279 | -8.06% |
66002 | 71057 | -7.11% |
55731 | 53890 | 3.42% |
53692 | 47851 | 12.21% |
51381 | 48216 | 6.56% |
55162 | 50138 | 10.02% |
50008 | 48679 | 2.73% |
630252 | 630411 | -0.03% |
-159 | | |
Last, but not least, is our American delegation. With all of the bad news coming out of Detroit you might assume massive double digit loses. As a group though, you would be dead wrong. With sales totaling 320,792 units they have lost 23,074 units in sales to date, to drop just 6.71% for the time period. The Americans percentage wise, have held on to more sales than the Pacific Rim Group!
American | | |
Current | Previous | Actual |
24055 | 29141 | -17.45% |
21713 | 31260 | -30.54% |
24699 | 28671 | -13.85% |
28366 | 33713 | -15.86% |
23993 | 24905 | -3.66% |
22777 | 23334 | -2.39% |
31501 | 35521 | -11.32% |
25785 | 26660 | -3.28% |
31496 | 25818 | 21.99% |
30162 | 27579 | 9.37% |
29904 | 29015 | 3.06% |
294451 | 315617 | -6.71% |
-21166 | | |
In a nut shell as groups the Pacific Rim group is suffering the same issues as the industry as a whole is experiencing. The Americans seem to be holding on by their fingernails slipping only in small but manageable increments. The Europeans actually are fairing the best actually only being hindered by the remnants of Ford’s Premium Auto Group. Take that part of the equation away and you see the Germans by all counts have held on to everything they have. This is a pretty remarkable feat just in itself.
Pacific Rim Individual Performances:
Lexus
Starting up in sales back in July of last year we have witnessed a steady drop in sales with only one bright spot since September of 2007. Actually it is pretty depressing to see such a dominate force fall so rapidly. Sales losses have consistently mounted since the beginning of the year, and June saw sales losses drop lower than even underperforming Acura. With a low point of an almost 30% drop in sales last month and precious few models on the horizon the outlook for the new few months will be pretty grim indeed. With few small displacement models in their lineup, it seems Toyota may have sent Lexus off to do battle without the ammunition to succeed. Overall, the manufacturer is down almost 8% for the 12 month period.
Lexus | | | |
| Current | Previous | Actual |
June | 20253 | 28869 | -29.85% |
May | 26593 | 31847 | -16.50% |
April | 23350 | 25995 | -10.18% |
March | 24939 | 28855 | -13.57% |
February | 21277 | 22518 | -5.51% |
January | 20229 | 22118 | -8.54% |
December | 34555 | 37235 | -7.20% |
November | 24848 | 26719 | -7.00% |
October | 25119 | 24006 | 4.64% |
September | 25114 | 25700 | -2.28% |
August | 32199 | 31074 | 3.62% |
July | 27141 | 26959 | 0.68% |
| 305617 | 331895 | -7.92% |
| -26278 | | |
Acura
With 12 months of negative sales, one might begin to question the viability of Acura. I know I certainly do. While new models have helped a bit, the biggest problem is there simply is little in the showroom that begs for buyer to come in. An interesting note here is that of the 12 month span 4 of them resulted in over 20% loss in sales from the prior year. These losses are already on top of the losses from the prior year as well. With just over a 15% drop for the time period, all that is left is to pull the defibulator out of the closet get ready to perform CPR.
Acura | | | |
| Current | Previous | Actual |
June | 12371 | 16766 | -26.21% |
May | 14893 | 15920 | -6.45% |
April | 13025 | 15193 | -14.27% |
March | 13288 | 16986 | -21.77% |
February | 13084 | 13658 | -4.20% |
January | 11168 | 13017 | -14.20% |
December | 17582 | 19056 | -7.74% |
November | 12910 | 17200 | -24.94% |
October | 12886 | 15877 | -18.84% |
September | 14369 | 16323 | -11.97% |
August | 16436 | 18263 | -10.00% |
July | 14381 | 18203 | -21.00% |
| 166393 | 196462 | -15.31% |
| -30069 | | |
Infiniti
OK, 12 months ago I was ragging on Infiniti for dated models but few a refreshes new models has started to change that, until the latest downturn. A small lineup and one strong performer moved Infiniti from the red to the black with the introduction of a few well place refreshes. However the lack of an economical offering is now taking it toll on the Marque as gas prices rise. Infiniti totals out with a very slight 1.52% drop over the period, performing the best by far in retaining sales in the face of mounting pressure.
Infiniti | | | |
| Current | Previous | Actual |
June | 9304 | 10558 | -11.88% |
May | 10495 | 10748 | -2.35% |
April | 9537 | 9945 | -4.10% |
March | 13821 | 13877 | -0.40% |
February | 10068 | 9704 | 3.75% |
January | 8644 | 8964 | -3.57% |
December | 12655 | 13112 | -3.49% |
November | 10604 | 10382 | 2.14% |
October | 9955 | 9406 | 5.84% |
September | 10250 | 10378 | -1.23% |
August | 10252 | 9429 | 8.73% |
July | 9526 | 10548 | -9.69% |
| 125111 | 127051 | -1.53% |
| -1940 | | |
European Individual Performances:
BMW
Talk about holding your own in a crisis! BMW has only dropped 653 units in sales over the last year time frame. You probably remember I said a while back that BMW would over take Lexus about this time of the year. This prediction may come full circle it seems. With a fresh line up in the pipeline, BMW seems well placed to take over Lexus as the number one by already beating them in sales for June but also in April as well. You heard it here first folks the power shift has already started and I don’t see it changing anytime soon. BMW is well placed and has a rabid following so I fully expect them to improve on a relatively flat year. BMW sales have only dipped .23% for the last twelve month.
BMW | | | |
| Current | Previous | Actual |
June | 20944 | 25220 | -16.95% |
May | 25469 | 26689 | -4.57% |
April | 26735 | 25310 | 5.63% |
March | 23115 | 25325 | -8.73% |
February | 20775 | 22274 | -6.73% |
January | 16935 | 21811 | -22.36% |
December | 30199 | 30945 | -2.41% |
November | 23808 | 22602 | 5.34% |
October | 23451 | 20822 | 12.63% |
September | 20901 | 20339 | 2.76% |
August | 26562 | 22421 | 18.47% |
July | 24295 | 20083 | 20.97% |
| 283189 | 283841 | -0.23% |
| -652 | | |
Mercedes Benz
Without the looming shadow of Chrysler detracting attention from Mercedes, it seems this brand has caught a new life. The old saying to invest in gold when times are tough seems to ring true here. With the new S-Class and C-Class in the lineup, buyers are seemingly flocking into Mercedes dealers to invest in their own form of “gold”. Sales for the division are actually up a modest 1.25% of the 12 month period. Call it badge envy or whatever you want, the Mercedes name seems to be some peoples idea of a hedge in hard times.
Mercedes Benz | | |
| Current | Previous | Actual |
June | 19576 | 19589 | -0.07% |
May | 21785 | 21771 | 0.06% |
April | 20271 | 20895 | -2.99% |
March | 20808 | 21612 | -3.72% |
February | 18564 | 17304 | 7.28% |
January | 18275 | 17069 | 7.07% |
December | 27301 | 28115 | -2.90% |
November | 22819 | 22079 | 3.35% |
October | 22820 | 20598 | 10.79% |
September | 22459 | 19873 | 13.01% |
August | 20980 | 20602 | 1.83% |
July | 18586 | 21591 | -13.92% |
| 254244 | 251098 | 1.25% |
| 3146 | | |
Audi
Once considered the 98 lb weaklings of the German three. Audi has shown some real moxie of the last year sporting more increases than losses. If it wasn’t for a disastrous December month, Audi too would be in the black like Mercedes. However since we have to count everything, Audi comes in with a 2.78% decrease in the last 12 months. The biggest problem here is I am hearing constant report that Audi it almost of cars with several model back ordered for months. A great problem to have I guess. However this is not a model to follow if you boast of world domination. You have to have the cars to sell or your buyers will go elsewhere.
Audi | | | |
| Current | Previous | Actual |
June | 8203 | 7789 | 5.32% |
May | 8534 | 8788 | -2.89% |
April | 7730 | 8106 | -4.64% |
March | 7987 | 8020 | -0.41% |
February | 6152 | 6609 | -6.91% |
January | 6418 | 6399 | 0.30% |
December | 8502 | 11997 | -29.13% |
November | 9104 | 9209 | -1.14% |
October | 7421 | 6431 | 15.39% |
September | 8021 | 8004 | 0.21% |
August | 7620 | 7115 | 7.10% |
July | 7127 | 7005 | 1.74% |
| 92819 | 95472 | -2.78% |
| -2653 | | |
Jaguar
Think selling an icon to a foreign entity is a recipe for disaster? Not if you are Jaguar. As the news continually broke of the impending sale of Jaguar, sales jumped by double digits! In both April and May sales rose over 25%, however June’s slight dip of just over 3% has placed a slight damper on the party for now. In reviewing the figures of the last 12 months the affects of Ford ownership are quite apparent, but with the release of several new models Jaguar it seems, is coming into it’s own finally. Sales over the 12 month period were down about 10.8%, which is far better than parent Ford.
Jaguar | | | |
| Current | Previous | Actual |
June | 1360 | 1410 | -3.55% |
May | 1757 | 1379 | 27.41% |
April | 1785 | 1424 | 25.35% |
March | 1752 | 1667 | 5.10% |
February | 1063 | 1191 | -10.75% |
January | 664 | 1390 | -52.23% |
December | 1522 | 1553 | -2.00% |
November | 1114 | 1256 | -11.31% |
October | 1030 | 1366 | -24.60% |
September | 1061 | 1158 | -8.38% |
August | 1359 | 1704 | -20.25% |
July | 1136 | 1997 | -43.11% |
| 15603 | 17495 | -10.81% |
| -1892 | | |
Land Rover
So EVERYONE is dumping their SUV, right? Maybe the correct answer is only some of them. With nothing equating to real fuel economy Land Rover is down no doubt. But how about less than 10% in the 12 month stretch? Hopefully Ford looked in to why Land rover is holding on to sales before jettisoning them to overseas owners. Did ford throw out the baby with the bath water?
Land Rover | | | |
| Current | Previous | Actual |
June | 2200 | 4160 | -47.12% |
May | 3003 | 4269 | -29.66% |
April | 2557 | 4211 | -39.28% |
March | 3054 | 3663 | -16.63% |
February | 2819 | 3106 | -9.24% |
January | 2859 | 3433 | -16.72% |
December | 4887 | 6014 | -18.74% |
November | 4352 | 4229 | 2.91% |
October | 4237 | 4004 | 5.82% |
September | 4190 | 3469 | 20.78% |
August | 4853 | 3671 | 32.20% |
July | 4189 | 3524 | 18.87% |
| 43200 | 47753 | -9.53% |
| -4553 | | |
Volvo
Is Volvo still a luxury brand? To me Ford has generified it so much it is more akin to Buick than a true Luxury brand. But for comparison sake I feel inclined to keep them in the list for now. With a sales drop of only 10.5% over the last 12 month I often wonder why Ford is looking for buyers for this brand. It is out performing almost everything else they have, however rumors persist the Volvo may fall into other hands by the end of the year.
Volvo | | | |
| Current | Previous | Actual |
June | 7001 | 9572 | -26.86% |
May | 7238 | 9192 | -21.26% |
April | 7138 | 8122 | -12.12% |
March | 9263 | 10661 | -13.11% |
February | 7505 | 8453 | -11.21% |
January | 8036 | 7808 | 2.92% |
December | 9341 | 8252 | 13.20% |
November | 8227 | 9229 | -10.86% |
October | 7761 | 8384 | -7.43% |
September | 8408 | 9672 | -13.07% |
August | 9119 | 10582 | -13.83% |
July | 9549 | 10323 | -7.50% |
| 98586 | 110250 | -10.58% |
| -11664 | | |
American Individual Performances
Cadillac
If you think of Cadillac is as a gray hair car, then you really haven’t looked at them recently. With a relatively fresh line up in the showroom, Cadillac is picking up the pace in several sectors. The new CTS has met rave reviews, and the CTS-V has help establish the marque as a legitimate performance brand. Sales are only down 3.9% for the period and 0% interest from parent company GM won’t hurt sales in the least bit. If the current crop of cars in the showroom are marketed correctly, Cadillac may steal some of Lexus thunder over the next 12 months
Cadillac | | | |
| Current | Previous | Actual |
June | 14337 | 16647 | -13.88% |
May | 13348 | 17380 | -23.20% |
April | 14359 | 16839 | -14.73% |
March | 17453 | 18943 | -7.87% |
February | 14420 | 14142 | 1.97% |
January | 14792 | 13740 | 7.66% |
December | 21436 | 22715 | -5.63% |
November | 17041 | 17250 | -1.21% |
October | 21267 | 17052 | 24.72% |
September | 20398 | 20217 | 0.90% |
August | 19481 | 20036 | -2.77% |
July | 17412 | 19124 | -8.95% |
| 205744 | 214085 | -3.90% |
| -8341 | | |
Lincoln
With Ford’s absolutely horrible performance over the last year, I would think Lincoln’s demise would be on the horizon. But then again with a sales drop of only 11.5% for the period, I might be wrong. Is there still hope for Lincoln? Only if they have the resources to model themselves after Cadillac and target Lexus while it is at its weakest will they survive.
Lincoln | | | |
| Current | Previous | Actual |
June | 9718 | 12494 | -22.22% |
May | 8365 | 13880 | -39.73% |
April | 10340 | 11832 | -12.61% |
March | 10913 | 14770 | -26.11% |
February | 9573 | 10763 | -11.06% |
January | 7985 | 9594 | -16.77% |
December | 10065 | 12806 | -21.40% |
November | 8744 | 9410 | -7.08% |
October | 10229 | 8766 | 16.69% |
September | 9764 | 7362 | 32.63% |
August | 10423 | 8979 | 16.08% |
July | 8929 | 9125 | -2.15% |
| 115048 | 129781 | -11.35% |
| -14733 | | |
Conclusion
In summary, the trends are showing the market dropping at a fairly rapid rate. Almost every manufacturer is at risk; however those without fuel efficient alternatives in the lineup will certainly suffer the most. Brands such as Cadillac, Lincoln and even Lexus must make a move towards fuel economy with a wider range of power trains. This is where the Europeans in general already are with a variety of either smaller yet powerful engines or diesel alternatives. What will the next few months hold? You tell us.