As we all know, the Obama administration seems to have solidified the direction of fuel economy and emissions regulations for the next decade. An automaker’s “fleet average” - i.e. the average fuel economy of all the vehicles an automaker sells adjusted by sales volume - must be 35.5 mpg by 2016 (up from 2009’s fleet requirement of 25 mpg). At first blush, this looks like a death sentence for big powerful trucks like the Tundra.
However, it's important to note that the President stated that plug-in electric and hydrogen powered vehicles will qualify for “super credits” - meaning that selling one plug-in electric and/or hydrogen powered vehicle will cancel out 2 or more “regular” vehicles.
Because of "super credits," these new fuel rules won’t necessarily result in more fuel efficient trucks, nor will they significantly impact truck sales. Because the fuel economy and emissions rules are “fleet averages,” there’s plenty of wiggle room for big trucks and SUVs.
The math is pretty simple. For every plug-in Prius that Toyota sells (which could be rated as high as the Volt, which Chevy claims at 150 mpg) they can sell 5 Tundras with “fuel economy” room to spare (see graphic). Using EPA ratings of 16 mpg for the Tundra and 150 mpg for the plug-in Prius, the “fleet average” is 38.33 mpg! That’s what Obama means when he talks about “super credits” - super credits mean that SELLING ONE PLUGIN-IN IS GOING TO BE "SUPER" FOR TRUCK SALES.
Of course, the plug-in Prius might not get the 150 mpg rating. If the new plug-in Prius (due in 2011) only rates 100 mpg, Toyota can sell 3 Tundras for every plug-in and still come out above the required average. Toyota isn’t alone either. Chevy has the Volt, and Ford and Chrysler are both planning on selling plug-ins.
Even if you take the plug-ins out of the equation and just look at regular hybrids, the ratio is just about 1 to 1. For every 50 mpg 2010+ Prius that Toyota sells, they can sell one fuel guzzling 16 mpg Tundra. Toyota sold about 159k Prius in 2008, which just about makes up for each and every Tundra.
The math is a little simplistic, but the point is made: Trucks are here to stay (just as they should be). All you haters can snap out of it now.
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