Are Diesels Set To Outstrip Hybrids in America?

With U.S. regulators looking to revise fuel economy standards amid concerns for energy security and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, research published today by UBS and Ricardo points to combined annual diesel and hybrid gasoline vehicle sales in the United States of $2.7 million by 2012.

The Ricardo /UBS research report "Is Diesel set to boom in the US?" sets out the legislative and consumer drivers of engine technology for the North American automotive market over the coming decade, as well as the many candidate technologies available for future vehicle products.

At present, hybrid gasoline technology appears to be the preferred route in the United States, not least due to its attraction as a visible badge of green awareness amongst higher income purchasers. Many original equipment manufacturers plan to launch hybrid products in the next few years, but the report highlights that this technology faces substantial manufacturing cost penalties, which are unlikely to be eroded even in mass production. Diesel has a clear cost advantage over hybrid, even when fitted with the type of complex exhaust after-treatment technologies necessary to meet future, more stringent emissions regulations.

Diesel already dominates in Europe. The conditions may now be right for a big acceleration in diesel sales in the North American market. Ricardo forecasts that combined diesel and hybrid gasoline will represent 15 percent of the U.S. light vehicle market by 2012, with sales of diesels outstripping gasoline hybrids by 1.5 million units versus 1.2 million. UBS highlights that European automakers and a number of global suppliers look set to benefit from the diesel trend.

jon21 - 5/25/2007 10:57:27 AM

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No---- tooooooooooooooooooooooooooo mannnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnny tree huggers live in the USA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BminiW - 5/25/2007 9:14:21 PM

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Diesel is perfect for Tree Huggers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

jon21 - 5/25/2007 10:58:54 AM

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I do wish I could get a BioDiesel Plugin Hybrid someday!

drell1emc - 5/25/2007 11:14:44 AM

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Americans will welcome the diesels, they do alot of highway driving where diesel have an advantage. when it's time for them to replace their current cars, diesels will be the clear choice. MB is stepping the game up by bringing the diesel hybrid over next year. So the other major manufactors well follow

kart1 - 5/26/2007 1:57:39 PM

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"Americans will welcome the diesels"

That may be true, but it has not happened so far.

kpaxx - 5/25/2007 11:36:36 AM

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I love diesel cars for everyday driving they are the best option. My last diesel car went to >1mil KM.

toolatetorace - 5/27/2007 11:07:24 AM

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You must drive for a living. Our road tractors at work will get those kind of miles and there is not much left of them after those kind of miles on less than ideal roads and if you lived in the rust belt and I'll bet you don't,, the only thing you would be hanging on to is the steering wheel .

BigShow50 - 5/25/2007 11:44:28 AM

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Hey drell1emc, follow what? As for MB coming out with hybrid diesel, keep in mind they will only be capable of producing a "Mild Hybrid" system. As for Toyota Corp, they are ready to unleash their next generation "Full Scale Hybrid" with Lithium-Ion, with optional plug-in and/or mated Diesel system(reason why they have picked up part ownership of Isuzu for diesel technology which is actually much easier to engineer oppose to hybrid technology, and to make diesel that much better through Toyota's R&D)...So from that point on, guess who will continue to follow the leader? This should answer the question to this topic.

drell1emc - 5/25/2007 12:24:16 PM

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I knew about toyota, and even nissan transistor program. I just stated the first company to arrive next year. not a MB fan, matter fact I only drive nissan

Neverfollow - 5/25/2007 12:27:51 PM

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Diesel Hybid technology already exists in the German camp. The same emission regulations in the US that effect all automotive diesel engines coming to the US, will still effect the diesel hybrids as well.

Pardon my ignorance here but don't all hybrids use Lithium-Ion batteries?

I'm not sure why Toyota couldn't have developed diesel technology on their own without buying Isuzu from GM. I don't see either of those companies being a tower of power when it comes to diesel technology, especially compared to the PHD's in Germany who have had decades of experience building them in mass production.

w209w114 - 5/25/2007 12:59:25 PM

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I couldnt have said it better myself. The Germans have been implementing diesel engines successfuly since the 50s. A Mercedes-Benz diesel to this day holds the worlds record for the most miles. Having owned one of these myself I can assure that they are are one of the most reliable engines out there, by far exceeding anything the Japanese or Americans have to offer.
Performance Diesels are an exciting new class of vehicles focused on "squeezing the most juice" out of its engines while still being environmentally friendly.

-They are much "greener" to produce than hybrids,

-Pose less of a threat to the environment when its time to dispose of the car.

-Will be much cheaper to fix if repairs are needed.

-Still Achieve great MPG

cthip - 5/25/2007 1:59:12 PM

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prius currently uses nimh batteries
li+ is expected to replace it soon

993Turbo - 6/1/2007 8:34:55 AM

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Most hybrids use NiMH batteries not lithium ion. Those are the same as your cell phone. They were used however in that new electric sports car.

EnnNorak - 5/25/2007 1:08:16 PM

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King Hybrid is dead. Long live King Diesel!

Lexus - 5/25/2007 2:56:06 PM

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Actually, the problem is trying to convince American consumers on diesel. Another problem is that many U.S. consumers don't like diesel, myself is included.

Threepoint1415926 - 5/25/2007 3:52:04 PM

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And why dont they? Why dont you? I have no idea why Americans have such a bad vibe from diesels. The 70's Ameri-trash of yore are gone and well forgotten. You can get diesel nearly anywhere and they're quiet and fast. Being addicted to gasoline engines has seriously hurt consumers interests here in the states.

Bmw8ter - 5/26/2007 11:28:32 AM

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The negative perceptions of diesels here in the U.S. is partly due to consumers thinking they're going to choke on the exhaust, but the other part(most important) might be because of the auto manufacturers not wanting to dole out the cash to incorporate diesel engines into their product lines; afterall, our domestic auto makers are struggling for cash as it is.

LexusLunatic - 5/27/2007 9:37:01 AM

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i love how toyota has used the hybrid technology. i have seen the lexus ads about them a lot. i think diesel is another good choice for fuel efficiency and low emissions.

remember the honda insight was not a popular choice for hybrid when they were first to come out but toyota did it in the best time and they are #1 in hybrid cars .diesel is #1 in europe. ppl like diesel not all but some. not all have hybrid either. so it is fair game for both. at least they both help the global warming.

BigShow50 - 5/25/2007 2:57:11 PM

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C'mon EnnNorak, actual implementation of hybrids into the automotive market has been only 10 years especially Toyota and Honda, As for Toyota to pick up Isuzu is to get the ball rollin' and combining what Toyota knows with others(Isuzu). This will save them millions of dollars in R&D and implements the savings into other areas for diesel/hybrid. Makes perfect business sense. And when you are comparing a technology that has been in the game for at least 50 years by MB...it's only now that MB( a company known for diesel tech is now making true effort for cleaner diesels) could have they done this much sooner??? Absolutely!!! But now they are threaten to alternate fuels(hybrids for example) Let the ignorance con't when comparng the 2 types. This is like saying, who would have thought Toyota was going to surpass GM in the 1st Global quarter of 2007??? They can do the same with Hybrids vs' whatever it maybe. It's only a matter or time. By the way for the people who boast about MB's great diesel tech, so what's the need to mate a hybrid then?(bad enough they are making only a "Mild Hybrid") Just leads me to believe you boys being a little hypocritical with your comments?

w209w114 - 5/25/2007 4:21:33 PM

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"By the way for the people who boast about MB's great diesel tech.... hypocritical with your comments?"

There is no denying that their diesel technology is on the cutting edge. They will make a diesel hybrid only to be competitive in the segment (did u think they were going to stay behind?) but wont focus much on them like others who want to make everything a hybrid.

no1listensanyway - 5/25/2007 3:27:14 PM

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Nope, I think Americans appreciate the complexity of hybrids. I know diesel has come along way, but the perception of them being noisy, smelly and slow is still very prevelant in most consumers eyes. Diesels are almost like taking a step back in technology, where Hybrids are taking a step foward.

w209w114 - 5/25/2007 4:25:44 PM

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This is true about the mentality of America. All we are used to here are trucks being diesel.

gsh23 - 5/25/2007 3:35:00 PM

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diesel sucks. leave that for the truckers and europeans to use. america will run on ethanol before diesel will ever catch on. however it will be interesting in the next decade. heavy government subsidies for ethanol will be pushing consumers to use less gas. gas companies are going to lobby for diesel restrictions so they can start selling diesel to offset less demand for gas.

Agent63 - 5/25/2007 4:00:15 PM

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Diesels don't suck. If it weren't for those trucks how did your car get delivered to the dealership? They don't suck as much as you think they do now huh?

Diesels popular in Europe for a reason. It just hasn't been widely used in the US Market. Hybrid's only popular now because of marketing. The world of business really plays a key role in getting exposure for such technology. Diesel requires the same & MB is the leader in that.

Great mileage and clean burning too. As far as I see it Hybrid & Diesel are two great innovations in the auto world. It may slow down global warming and in that aspect it's already a success.

Agent63 - 5/25/2007 3:57:21 PM

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Mercedes is definitely going to be the leader with their bluetec diesels. Now having hybrid and diesel working together now that is what you call great engineering. Taking what's popular in the US Market and implementing it with what's popular in Europe to make a great fuel efficient and low emission car is a great idea.

w209w114 - 5/25/2007 4:17:22 PM

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I agree. They are making a hybrid (specifically for the US market) to be competitive in the segment. Americans love gadgets, electronics, and new tech even if they arent the best, its still new and axciting making it a hot product.

neutral - 5/25/2007 4:19:23 PM

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GM.....Please bring the Cadillac BLS with the 1.9L diesel and the '08 CTS with that ridiculous 2.9L diesel. The 2.9L should be one of the most used GM engines (in my opinion), right next to the 2.4L ecotec and the 3.6L.

Somewhere I heard that theres supposed to be a diesel GMC Acadia (or its sister vehicles) powered by the 2.9L diesel. Does anyone know about this?

w209w114 - 5/25/2007 4:26:02 PM

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Nobody ever thinks that maybe they arent gas for a reason. Think about how much 18 wheelers will consume if they were gas powered. Or how about how well they will hold up on long road trips and extremely high mileage.

Diesels were once mean polluting macho forest killing machines, but NOT ANY MORE. Money talks, and when consumers realize how economical diesels are over hybrids we will finally have a winner.

truecarlover - 5/25/2007 6:46:27 PM

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I don't think people realize that this problem will not be solved in 10 years time and it will be a multi-pronged approach(hybrids, diesels, cylinder deactivation, ignition shut down and idle). Personally I would take a new clean burning diesel over a hybrid. I also heard their is a new synthetic diesel that reduces emissions and gases even more (Sunoco and Audi co-devoloped it). I think the R10 race car uses it. The technology to make hybrids a "knockout" just isn't their yet. Though it's better than the status quo.

nvme - 5/25/2007 9:22:04 PM

+1 Boost

that is why BMW has installed stop/start!!!

Bill - 5/26/2007 6:50:36 AM

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Volkswagen offered this feature long before BMW.

Will_ - 5/25/2007 7:36:48 PM

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Hybrids have proven themselves as efficient gas-saving, emission-cutting products. No creepy diesel-worshipping can change this. It's sad that so many people here knock hybrids just because they're a Euro loyalist. Calling Americans stupid (not specifically saying anyone here did...yet) is what's truly stupid. Americans support diesels because they do what they're supposed to do. With the Prius 3 coming out soon, it doesn't look like hybrids are going anywhere for a long time.

mp2dtw - 5/25/2007 10:43:59 PM

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Does this mean we'll smell like Paris now? That diesel stench is inescapable there. According to the BBC, the French have the highest percentage of diesel cars.

1970toyotamarc - 5/26/2007 12:07:15 PM

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While I was driving along on the highway, getting 55mpg in my Prius, I noticed a new Jetta diesel. It was white and black. Well only black in one spot, right above the muffler, on the shiny white bumper. Diesels may be good for CO2, and I know that is all that anyone talks about right now. (Not to knock it at all, it is very important.) But emissions is about more than CO2, it is also about every other noxious exhaust emission. And until a diesel can be fast, quiet, high mileage and clean emitting, I will stick with my hybrid. I know diesel is getting there, it is evident from Bluetec. But by the time diesel is fully able to meet those conditions, the next hybrids will be along, creating a target even further away.

Neverfollow - 5/26/2007 12:22:54 PM

+3 Boost

There are very few "Clean Diesels" in the US at this time. This is what we are trying to get across to Americans. What you are seeing on the bumper of that Jetta is Carbon. That will be trapped by the new particulate filters on the new engines. The "Bluetec" technology will take care of the Nox and greenhouse gases. They will not stink like a bus stop or airport and they will be very quiet running. Every diesel engine you see on the road in the US today is the old technology. Don't judge until you drive one.

SupraNeverBack - 5/26/2007 3:01:04 PM

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2012 Toyota alone will sell more than 1.2million hybrids.

I don't see many will buy dirtier, more expensive, less fuel efficient, noisier, slower diesels over cleaner, cheaper, more fuel efficient, quieter, faster hybrids.

w209w114 - 5/26/2007 6:22:37 PM

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hybrids arent cheaper. Look at how much of a piece of crap a Prius is for what its worth compared to a regular car.

XYZZ - 5/27/2007 4:39:11 AM

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...

XYZZ - 5/27/2007 4:42:19 AM

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how do you explain that "piece of crap" having the HIGHEST OWNER LOYALTY of ANY model in the u.s.?

even squeaking past the Corvette?

XYZZ - 6/2/2007 5:30:44 AM

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"The Prius hybrid gas-electric mid-size sedan posted
all-time best-ever sales of 24,009, an increase of 184.9 percent over May 2006."

formula, you are a DNF in the facts and forecasts dept.