A Tough Nut To Crack: Toyota's Tundra Fails To Make Sales Estimates In 2007

Close counts when it comes to horseshoes, darts and hand grenades (to a certain extent).  But when it comes to automotive sales and forecasts, it clearly either a hit or miss proposition.

When the New Tundra came on to the scene, Toyota conservatively stated it targeted 200,000 in sales for 2007.  It seemed like an easy target to hit.  After all Toyota is a conservative company, and never really boasts more than it can accomplish. After all if you always hit your targets you look real good.

After a huge marketing push, many pro and con press articles, last ditch discounting, a few minor recalls tossed in, Toyota fell just short of the mark selling a grand total of 196,555 units.  While this is an impressive start for a new model by most counts, it also makes a statement that the US pickup market place is a tough nut to crack, and loyalty is fierce amongst the brands.

If you remember back at the introduction of the Tundra many of us stated that this was the dawning of the death of U.S. dominance in the pickup marketplace.  While it may be a start of the end of some models, even in a declining domestic market such as this, Toyota may still have quite a way to go for dominance.

So what should be Toyota’s next step?  Lower prices, more advertising, or let the market just settle around them?

SDswtc44 - 1/4/2008 1:36:38 PM

-5 Boost

I think this year was a nice introduction for the Tundra. Yes there were problems but at least Toyota did something about them. I think next year will be a bigger year for the Tundra and the Sierra doesnt stand a chance

BigShow50 - 1/4/2008 1:37:23 PM

+2 Boost

Simply make major revisions on the current model and might as well price them @ a relatively low price, let alone offer some crazy incentives on fiinance and leasing if they are willing to look at dominace in this sement.

Porschinator - 1/4/2008 1:57:37 PM

+7 Boost

Truck is finally full sized which is good. The Gas mileage is behind GM's trucks on average. Base price is also higher as well as Toyota never gaining ground in the construction niche. Current Gas prices has also hit the entire segment.

DaHarder - 1/4/2008 2:00:38 PM

+4 Boost

Certainly a solid effort, and the engine is a gem, but...

From a styling standpoint, Toyota really tried way too hard to look like a 'Big Boy' truck, and as a result created a look more comical than imposing/masculine (in my opinion).

In addition: All the recalls didn't do much to persuade potential buyers to switch from their domestic trucks.

Agent009 - 1/4/2008 3:08:19 PM

+5 Boost

Correction to you.. Toyota has repeatedly said 200,000 was the goal for 2007.

enthusiastx11 - 1/5/2008 11:31:45 AM

+1 Boost

here you go lexus. a press release on toyota.com stating the sales goal of 200,000 for 2007. can't believe you're so uninformed about your favorite company!

http://pressroom.toyota.com/Releases/View?id=TYT2007100228445

enthusiastx11 - 1/5/2008 11:32:55 AM

+3 Boost

and toyota has broadcasted the 200,000 goal MANY times. how did you miss it?

EL34 - 1/4/2008 2:49:46 PM

+2 Boost

The Tundra is dead.

R.I.P.

:-(

Agent009 - 1/4/2008 3:08:57 PM

0 Boost

A bit premature.. may be better if you said R.I.P. Titan

montyz81 - 1/4/2008 3:19:33 PM

+2 Boost

It is too bad, the Titan is the best truck on this list (in my opinion) I suspect the next time around the Titan will sell over 100k units per year and create a problem for Tundra sales. That said, Nissan's first attempt with the Titan is far more successful then Toyota's first two attempts. Nissan should build off of that.

1970toyotamarc - 1/4/2008 3:17:11 PM

-2 Boost

Oh I bet you just couldnt wait to pounce on this one.

First, as another poster pointed out, Toyota did not claim that for the 2007 calendar year, that the Tundra would sell 200,000 units, as they knew that it would not be on sale for the whole year. The fact that it came so close anyway is astonishingly good.

Second, your analogy about horseshoes and hand grenades is actually good, but your dismissal of it in the case of sales is wrong. Close does count in sales. Because close in this case meant a 57% improvement in sales over last year (millions of dollars in revenue), pretty remarkable.

Finally, Toyota obviously DID figure out the truck market, as they improved sales in a shrinking market. All the other makes went down, and the Tundra went up. Which basically means consumers bought Tundras instead of F150s, Silverados, et al. Seems like a pretty solid outcome if you ask me.

In response to some of the other Tundra haters who have posted...The Tundra has demonstrated better mpg than its rivals; its base price may be higher, but content wise the rest of the line is competitively priced; more models and configurations have been made available for 2008.

enthusiastx11 - 1/5/2008 11:34:52 AM

+1 Boost

toyota broadcasted the goal of 200,000 everywhere. amazing how you can conveniently forget what is common knowledge in the automotive world. here's the press release from the toyota marketing machine:


http://pressroom.toyota.com/Releases/View?id=TYT2007100228445

1970toyotamarc - 1/5/2008 5:02:49 PM

+2 Boost

So you found ONE comment this fall by one Toyota representative who apparently got caught up in the same hype that all u haters have gotten into. This 200,000 number took on a life of its own thanks to the plethora of media jumping all over Toyota this year. Almost all comments referencing 200,000 over the past year indicated a goal of "about" 200,000 or 200,000 once the plant produces at full capacity. But it got turned into this TOYOTA WILL SELL 200,000 this year. Toyota is NEVER that specific. Why this one guy left out the word about or approximately is beyond me. I'm sure it was just a slip.

http://www.truckblog.com/story-1121-toyota_tundra_plant_opens_in_san_antonio

"When the plant reaches full operations next spring, it will have the capacity to produce 200,000 Tundra full-size pickup trucks."

http://www.truckblog.com/story-982-toyota_sets_big_goal_for_tundra

"We're focusing on about 200,000 [Tundra sales] next year, which would give us about 10 percent market share, and we'd grow from there."

enthusiastx11 - 1/6/2008 2:51:04 AM

+1 Boost

1970:

press releases about major product launches are carefully reviewed and then sent to the ENTIRE media world. this wasn't ONE guy making a mis-statement. it was toyota corporate making an announcement to the world. that's why we saw the 200,000 number EVERYWHERE.

r15mohd - 1/4/2008 3:36:39 PM

+2 Boost

009, you never cease to amaze me...

missed the target, please tell me how you find this as upsetting news. their projected target of 200,000 vehicles was only able to amount to 196,XXX vehicles..which is about 2% within it's said projection.

2%, you gotta be kidding me...if i was 2% off of the lotto, i would still be happy, because that means i'm hitting the lotto 98 out of every 100 times.

toyota did WELL for their first true pick-up amongst the rest, and like 1970 said...they were able to take sales away from the big3.

r15mohd - 1/4/2008 3:47:44 PM

+3 Boost

plus we should take in to effect that trucks sales on awhole has been on a tremendous downhill in sales. taking about twice the amount of time as would be.

Toyota did well, i still can't get over the 2% spread you claim they "miss" on. for a new vehicle introduction to one of the hardest segments, especially in america! well done, Mr. Toyoda will be proud...

Luxurious - 1/4/2008 3:53:25 PM

+2 Boost

wow what a failure! 3,445 Trucks short of project goal, which is a failure of 1.7%!
Good job 009, you are briging Toyota down!


Sarcastic..

no1listensanyway - 1/4/2008 4:21:57 PM

+4 Boost

I would hardly call that a miss of making estimates, Toyota was almost at their mark of 200,000. They reached this not only with a slowing economy but also the new GM trucks.

I think the real story here is how close the F-150 and Silverado came in sales. Usually the F-150 crushes the Silverado.

pushrod27 - 1/4/2008 5:57:30 PM

+3 Boost

The F150 is an old design competing against a brand new Silverado.

Also, i never understood why the sales for GM trucks are split between the Silverado and Sierra nameplates. They are basically the same truck. If you combine the sales of GM trucks sold under both brands, then it is GM that has always crushed the F-150.

toolatetorace - 1/4/2008 10:26:09 PM

+1 Boost

someone had to get it . The award gets rotated

diesselxp - 1/4/2008 7:36:59 PM

+2 Boost

JUST TUNDRA IMPROVED GOOD SALES IN DECEMBER AND Year-to-Date (YTD) Dec 2007:

TOP 10 Pickups Sales Figures
Year-to-Date (YTD) Dec 2007

1# Ford F-Series
690,589 -13.2% YTD
Dec 2007: 55,069
Dec 2006: 70,580

2# Chevrolet Silverado
618,257 -2.7% YTD
Dec 2007: 53,560
Dec 2006: 52,396

3# Dodge Ram
358,295 -2.0% YTD
Dec 2007: 32,118
Dec 2006: 32,875

4# GMC Sierra
208,243 -1.2% YTD
Dec 2007: 19,782
Dec 2006: 17,541

5# Toyota Tundra
196,555 +57.4% YTD
Dec 2007: 19,219
Dec 2006: 12,468

6# Toyota Tacoma
173,238 -3.2% YTD
Dec 2007: 13,289
Dec 2006: 15,857

7# Chevrolet Colorado
75,716 -19.3% YTD
Dec 2007: 5,410
Dec 2006: 7,858

8# Ford Ranger
72,711 -21.3% YTD
Dec 2007: 5,564
Dec 2006: 8,349

9# Nissan Titan
65,746 -9.2% YTD
Dec 2007: 4,785
Dec 2006: 5,575

10# Nissan Frontier
64,397 -17.2% YTD
Dec 2007: 4,708
Dec 2006: 5,728


NOT BAD RIGHT JUST IN 10 MONTHS(2007 toyota TUNDRA from february to december 2007)

toolatetorace - 1/4/2008 10:29:46 PM

-1 Boost

Consumer Reports just added insult to injury by giving a "not recomended" to the Tundra this year and instead awarded a "best buy " to the Silverado . That has to hurt

RS4inPA - 1/5/2008 4:09:48 AM

+1 Boost

the tundra is GARBAGE. it has a weak c channel frame and a cheap interior. plus it has doesn't have a diesel option. do a search on you tube where ford compares their frame to toyota's and you will see what i mean. in one of the videos the toyota's bed is banging into the cab. when it comes to trucks their is a lot more to it than just a polished exterior.

toolatetorace - 1/5/2008 9:56:57 AM

+1 Boost

..........and dont forget that little sand cast aluminum differential housing containing that garden tractor sized ring and pinion that you can barley see when you are following it.I cant imangine that thing holding up too long in when one starts to show off all the alleged power it has or , entering it in a truck pull.

DrFill2001 - 1/5/2008 9:18:27 AM

+2 Boost

This post is GARBAGE!
Tundra is the ONLY truck to show a market gain, an over 50% increase. Motor Trend Truck of the Year. Easily wins comparisons to the "competition".
Outsells every Ford vehicle except F-150! And is forcing GM to bring the 6.2 to the battle, just to stay in competitive!
Trying to call the Tundra any kind of failure is like calling the redesigned Chevy some kind of success.
What a joke!
You got another one?
DrFill

toolatetorace - 1/5/2008 9:46:57 AM

+1 Boost

A 50% market increase is not much to brag about seeing that they did not have much of the market to begin with.. As you can see , the GM / Ford market share did not slip that much . The ammount that they did reflects the soft economy . If they would have lost 25% each than it would be a concern . The Toytie buyers are those that just come of the sidlines and can say " I got a big truck too "

pacotacolol - 1/5/2008 9:57:15 AM

+1 Boost

toyota toyota toyota. thats all you here about these days.

enthusiastx11 - 1/5/2008 11:28:01 AM

0 Boost

toyota not meeting a sales goal IS A BIG DEAL.

for the past couple of decades toyota almost ALWAYS meets their sales goals. wonder why? that's because they set goals they are CERTAIN they can achieve and then use their PR/marketing machine to tout to the world they the beat their goals again. it's a very smart strategy.

guaranteed that there's a lot of internal toyota battling going on over missing this very important sales goal.

RealitySmack - 1/5/2008 7:42:08 PM

+3 Boost

People stop getting on each other's nuts!

The claimed number is a PREDICTION, a goal, a target!

DrFill2001 - 1/6/2008 12:56:24 AM

+3 Boost

Hey, Tool-ate, F-150 lost the exact amount the Tundra gained, about 70k units!
In other words, EVERY SALE Ford lost was picked up by Tundra.
Start worrying.
Check out the redesigned F-150 next week.
Keep worrying!
Have a Chevy tow against the Tundra....
DrFill

XYZZ - 1/6/2008 2:20:40 AM

+3 Boost

domestic fanbois can worry EVEN MORE, considering--

look at the long-term reliability charts CR provides. even the OLD tundra, without that superb new 5.7, was TOUGHER AND MORE RELIABLE than ALL domestics.

especially in the DRIVETRAIN, on 4x4 models.

5 years from now, i predict the new tundras will ALSO have a better record than domestics only HALF as old.

RS4inPA - 1/6/2008 8:09:08 AM

+1 Boost

here you go Toyota fan boys.
these videos will show you what a poor engineered piece of junk the Tundra is. when it comes to pickups there is much more to them than just putting in a large motor. check out this link..........http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRfE_XAk2mE

RS4inPA - 1/6/2008 8:12:13 AM

+1 Boost

and another link. check out the "sturdy trapzoidal frame"......what a joke. toyota put a 1970 frame on a 2007 truck. thats engineering:)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWjTbiYo3x0&feature=related

XYZZ - 1/10/2008 4:38:07 AM

+1 Boost

the type of frame used on the tundra is THE SAME AS the domestics use on their HD models. the domestics just use SIMPLER, CHEAPER frames on the 1/2 tons.

closer looks at the video reveal that the trucks with the more stable frames have their TIRES AND WHEELS dancing around like crazy underneath. while the tundra's wheels are more stable.

guess which trucks will need MORE FREQUENT TIRE AND SHOCK replacements over time, when consistently run on rough roads?