TOP STORY-The question that's on the mind of EVERY BMW speculator

Even though I was on vacation for the last couple weeks at the gorgeous Woodmark Hotel outside of Seattle and The Inn Above Tide in Sausalito, my mind was never far away from the questions and concerns that haunt us car nuts 24/7.

****special note: 001 will be reporting from the road for the next 9 days(Monterey, Vancouver BC and Las Vegas)covering various cars...Look for these special reports starting next week with the best Concorso Italiano and Concours D'Elegance photo gallery****

Now back to this week's top story...

While on vacation, I received this email and it got me thinking...

Will buyers of the new M5 have the heyday buyers of the last M5 had because of the rarity and mystique that surrounds this awesome car?

If you bought the last one for MSRP or less and you were one of the first owners, you made out like a bandit.

One of our readers poses this question that is on EVERY speculators mind (see email below)…

And trust us, there are more speculators of this car than true buyers...everyone wants to try to cash in on these phenomenon’s.

The temptation is just TOO great to turn and burn these babies!

Rather than giving my opinion on this subject this week, I’ll let our bloggers sound off and I will give my opinion in our next issue.

Here is the email…

Dear 001,

I just got the call from my BMW dealer 'cause they have the allocation for my '06 M5. I've been on 'the list' for a few years and fortunately have an early spot in line. In early 2000, I bought my first M5 (also early on the list) and was able to trade up a year later for a 2001 M5 ( I was on the list twice) by simply giving back my 2000 M5. There was such a long waiting list that my dealer was able to give me every penny back for my 2000 M5 and resell it for more. In fact, at the time, I could have probably MADE money on it.

I currently have a 545i. I'm really happy with the 545 and I am not so sure I want to spend $94K for a faster version. I was thinking about picking it up for several months and then trying to flip it to break even or make a couple bucks. Based on your knowledge & experience, do you think the valuations will hold up as in the past?

The differences this time around are:

1. When the '00 M5 came out, a 400HP sedan was unheard of. There was nothiing even close that could touch it. Today, we have E55, RS6, 300 SRT-8 and a couple others that are in a similar power ballpark. More choices means less overall demand in my book.

2. The '00 M5 was a meaner, tougher version of an already beautiful car, with perfect balance. The '06 starts with controversial styling and adds more goofy flares, etc. To me, that means there will be less demand.

3. Given the economy compared to early 2000, I suspect the nationwide demand for 100K cars is a little lower now than then.

So what do you think? Do you think there's enough demand to pick it up and flip it? Maybe there's a greater demand on the west coast than the east coast. Gas guzzler tax alone is 3K, so I don't want to go under water with it too early.

After 4 years, AutoSpies continues to be the best resource on highline information. Keep up the good work!

An educated Auto Spies consumer

So what do our blogging experts think?

You make the call...

aussie2u - 8/18/2005 11:54:50 PM

+1 Boost

I was on the list in 1998 for the new E39 M5. The dealer called during Christmas '99 and said she had arrived. It was unbelievable to be able to drive this new 400hp rocket sedan to the track, on the track, and then out to dinner again and again without a single worry. With power to spare and BMW covering every piece, part, and maintenance item except the tires, it was heaven. After Guy Ritchie went and made the BMW Short Films with Madonna, the car's "star" potential just soared higher. I had people hanging out of their cars during that first year taking pictures of it! Sure I could have made money like many did and flipped this car. But thats not what real car guys do.

Real car guys will buy the new M5 based on what it looks like from the drivers seat out, what it feels like accelerating with the sport button engaged, how it's matched rev downshifts will help them carry more speed through the corners.

On the other hand, it's sad to think that many of these first time M5 buyers won't know what a BMW message forum is, may have learned about the car from MTV or a photo they saw in MAXIM, will think it's an automatic with a fancy parking lever, and OMG, someone's gonna think it will look cool after they put 23" bling-bling's on it! These are the folks that will bet their zero interest loans that they can spin in and out of this car faster than Greenspan can announce the next rate hike. That is if they don't first slam it into a tree sideways answering their cell.

I'll pass on this new M5 simply because the "old" one is too good. An additional hundred horsepower and SMG would be nice to play with, but at a $20k+ premium over the already "perfect" E39 M5, I don't think it makes sense.

I'm betting this time around there will be far fewer car guys waiting in line for the poser's to flip them for their next toy.

pauloc - 8/19/2005 4:06:14 AM

+1 Boost

Here in the UK M5 is going MAD. A shortage from Germany means that there is very few around and i am lucky enough to have the new one.

Been offered in XS of $9000.00 premium.

It is far far better than the previous effort which was great. This car is truly UNBELIEVABLE. Until you live with it every day you really do not have a clue.

I think it will be strong for 12 months then tail off as M6 will be aroung and then new M3 will be close to launch............but thats just my opinion!!

Chip - 8/19/2005 4:18:32 AM

+1 Boost

My local BMW dealership has a 2 year waiting list at best.

Dont tell me this car isnt unbelievably hot.

I'll wait patiently.

BMW777 - 8/19/2005 3:49:38 PM

+1 Boost

Ok for all of those who say that buying an M5 will have to pay over sticker and that no dealer will charge sticker is false. I work at such a dealer in the west and we have a list of about 73 people and not a single person will pay over sticker.
As mentioned earlier, we will all be lucky to get 12 M5's for the year. For those on the list and want to get one faster than 2 years plan on paying well over sticker. The E39 M5 brought close to 40k over sticker I expect the dealers on the coast to get at least 50k plus for the cars the whole production run.
For those who say BMW has problems, look at what the problems were. For one the new 745 when it came out in 2002 it was a new car through and through. The engine was new, 6 speed transmission, chassis, fiber-optic laced interior. Everything was new and what were the problems you ask, Software, that is it, no mechanical problems, no engine problems, anything. Software problems, the best kind of problem to have, no taking apart the car just plug it in and reprogram. The only problems were glitches in the most state of the art autombile. Learn to form opinions for yourself instead of taking others opinions as fact.

Chip - 8/19/2005 5:04:32 PM

+1 Boost

Anyone who has extreme interest in exotic autos already know the demand for this car.

To "hot dog"- you must drive an infiniti or lexus because no BMW M model has ever sat on a dealer lot. PERIOD.

They move- quickly.

The new M5 is without a doubt the hottest car on the planet right now. (excluding anything from Ferrari to Lambo to Bentley)

500hp- 5 seats- 5 liter V10- 5 series brilliance.

No car comes close. Dont call it ugly. It looks modern and mean.

Face it "hot dog" --- you want one and cant have it.

Mark - 8/22/2005 9:11:40 AM

+1 Boost

A fool and his money are soon parted.....

Yet not everyone with money is a fool. Thanks to all the automobile companys that build cars for us to yearn and desire, even if most of us will never own [a new] one...and provide a reason for all of us to rant and rave at each other.

Will the new M5 be a bust? No, not with all the people in this world with money to buy whatever they want. Not with people that will strech their lives down to the bare bones just to own such a car. Where do you justify spending 90K on 'this' car...why not 'that' car? Would I buy one, probably not but that's my personal preference. I'd rather buy the last generation M5, or spend it on a 911 C4S.

Don't knock someone just becuase they are willing to spend 30K more for a car than it's MSRP. Congrats to you and your life for being able to do that.

Chip - 8/24/2005 5:49:21 AM

+1 Boost

In Saint Louis Missouri and Chicago Ilinois, the "roadster" you

are indicating sold in the first 3 seconds off the truck. No shit!!!

The first three times I tried to purchase one, they were gone in seconds. And with major mark-ups.

I finally got an Alpina Roadster brand new for only $2,000 over msrp.

BMWS sell. They drive and perform the best. Very Very Reliable.

Doesnt anyone on this board wear Gucci or Armani?

You pay for what you get. The BEST !!!!!!