New Fuel Economy Rules Won't Stop Truck Sales - Big Thirsty V8's Forever!

As we all know, the Obama administration seems to have solidified the direction of fuel economy and emissions regulations for the next decade. An automaker’s “fleet average” - i.e. the average fuel economy of all the vehicles an automaker sells adjusted by sales volume - must be 35.5 mpg by 2016 (up from 2009’s fleet requirement of 25 mpg). At first blush, this looks like a death sentence for big powerful trucks like the Tundra.

However, it's important to note that the President stated that plug-in electric and hydrogen powered vehicles will qualify for “super credits” - meaning that selling one plug-in electric and/or hydrogen powered vehicle will cancel out 2 or more “regular” vehicles.

Because of "super credits," these new fuel rules won’t necessarily result in more fuel efficient trucks, nor will they significantly impact truck sales. Because the fuel economy and emissions rules are “fleet averages,” there’s plenty of wiggle room for big trucks and SUVs.

The math is pretty simple. For every plug-in Prius that Toyota sells (which could be rated as high as the Volt, which Chevy claims at 150 mpg) they can sell 5 Tundras with “fuel economy” room to spare (see graphic). Using EPA ratings of 16 mpg for the Tundra and 150 mpg for the plug-in Prius, the “fleet average” is 38.33 mpg! That’s what Obama means when he talks about “super credits” - super credits mean that SELLING ONE PLUGIN-IN IS GOING TO BE "SUPER" FOR TRUCK SALES.

Of course, the plug-in Prius might not get the 150 mpg rating. If the new plug-in Prius (due in 2011) only rates 100 mpg, Toyota can sell 3 Tundras for every plug-in and still come out above the required average. Toyota isn’t alone either. Chevy has the Volt, and Ford and Chrysler are both planning on selling plug-ins.

Even if you take the plug-ins out of the equation and just look at regular hybrids, the ratio is just about 1 to 1. For every 50 mpg 2010+ Prius that Toyota sells, they can sell one fuel guzzling 16 mpg Tundra. Toyota sold about 159k Prius in 2008, which just about makes up for each and every Tundra.

The math is a little simplistic, but the point is made: Trucks are here to stay (just as they should be). All you haters can snap out of it now.
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inspirion7 - 5/20/2009 11:30:23 AM

0 Boost

As usual, trucks are the sacrificial lamb in this sort of legislation, but what of the V8 sport cars and luxury vehicles? I think the reason no one every brings up this point is these vehicles are status items we deem more desirable and can accept chocking on their exhaust easier than a truck.

Hose - 5/20/2009 2:37:28 PM

+1 Boost

Sham and Scam! 5 trucks @ 16MPG for 150 miles = 46.875 gallons of fuel... + 1 hybrid @ 150 MPG for 150 miles = 1 gallon. Therefore, 47.875 gallons of fuel for 600 miles driven = 18.8MPG for this "fleet".

Might as well not even bother with the legislation.

Hose - 5/20/2009 2:38:49 PM

+1 Boost

Oops... that's "900 miles driven" by this fleet... still 18.8 MPG

d1862093 - 5/20/2009 4:43:37 PM

+2 Boost

I guess you don't have to be a high school graduate to write for autospies. Because if the author had a diploma he would have been able to do a simple search and find out that's not how CAFE standards are calculated.

As one poster correctly pointed out. The average fuel economy is not calculated as an arithmetic mean. The correct average for his hypothetical 5 trucks and 1 Hybrid example is 18.8 mpg.

Not to mention the fact that the real world testing of the Prius plug in isn't even achieving half that 150 mpg figure. Using the number that Toyota is getting of about 65 mpg and the correct way of calculating the fleet average, it would take 3 hybrids for every truck sold to achieve 36.8 mpg.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporate_Average_Fuel_Economy#Calculation

For a second there I thought we were screwed. Thank god big trucks and SUVs will go the way of the dinosaur with this legislation. I guess all those big truck/SUV drivers will have to find some other way to overcompensate.

tundrahq - 5/21/2009 12:50:33 PM

+1 Boost

You are correct - average fleet numbers aren't calculated using our overly simplified method. Hence our paragraph that said as much in the article (you probably skipped reading it). The POINT here is that trucks aren't going anywhere. Obama's "super credits" are proof of as much. You'll also note (being a high school graduate and all) that the specifics of the program have yet to be disclosed. The fleet number is likely going to be "adjusted" based on wheel base, which means larger vehicles won't have to meet such lofty fuel economy goals. This new program is great, but it's not the revolution some people are hoping for. BTW, next time you move or buy a big piece of furniture, send me a picture of you stacking boxes on top of your little car. I think that would be cute.

mcpercr9 - 5/21/2009 1:55:14 AM

+1 Boost

Didn't know a Tundra was worth all that thought? Tundra really...