Do The Math: What Are Your Odds In A Toyota? Better Than The Press Wants You To Believe

Do The Math: What Are Your Odds In A Toyota? Better Than The Press Wants You To Believe

A little perspective, please.

That's my gut response to the near-hysteria caused by Toyota's recalls to address concerns over unintended acceleration.

Yes, the company's recall of 6.5 million cars — 2.3 million for sticky accelerator pedals and another 4.2 million for pedal-grabbing floor mats — is the automaker's nastiest black eye in memory. Worse, unintended acceleration is the ultimate headline-grabber, one of the scariest scenarios for any driver. The specter of a runaway car worries people far more than, say, the engine sludge build-up that affected some Toyotas in recent years.

The company screwed up, and any consumer with an affected model should get it fixed immediately. But without minimizing the issue, we are talking 19 alleged fatalities among roughly 20 million Toyotas sold here over the last 10 years. That's roughly one death linked to the recall for every million cars Toyota has sold. That's small comfort for those victims, of course, but your lifetime odds of dying in a plane crash (1 in 6,137 flights), a lightning strike (1 in 56,439) or an earthquake (1 in 120,161) are all vastly worse than your chances of dying in a runaway Toyota.


Read Article

Joe_LimonJoe_Limon - 2/4/2010 11:42:41 AM
+2 Boost
The same could be argued for any recall.


Joe_LimonJoe_Limon - 2/4/2010 11:53:57 AM
+2 Boost
Actually, no I change my mind, the same can't be argued for any recall, most recalls don't require deaths to initiate.


Joe_LimonJoe_Limon - 2/5/2010 1:09:27 AM
+1 Boost
I'm sorry I stopped reading when I got to "Some allege that electromagnetic interference could be causing the electronic throttles in Toyotas to become stuck open; this is completely unsubstantiated. It’s also possible that alien tractor beams are to blame."

Electromagnetic interference isn't some mad scientist thing that can only be created in the laboratory. I was having lots of difficulties in shielding an ecu from a tiny 600cc engine from the emf it produced from all of its moving components.

And there still is the other theory that the sensors wear out/break. lol that happens all the time, only with most vehicles they are controlled by a much more reliable mechanical throttle linkage.


Joe_LimonJoe_Limon - 2/5/2010 1:55:13 AM
-1 Boost
"Regarding your claim that a death is needed to initiate a recall."

I said no such thing! Most companies do recalls when they find out about an issue and come up with a fix for it. Not years later after people have died and you have already spent untold millions covering your tracks.

The very fact that consumers have to even be told that they have to shift into neutral is absurd. Toyota's are appliances, could you imagine buying a toaster and being told that you are stupid if you let your toast burn because the popping mechanism wasn't designed properly?


Mason3RobertMason3Robert - 2/4/2010 11:47:24 AM
-1 Boost
009, Im sure your having a consistent oragasm with all of this Toyota bad news but whats the point of this particular article/post? When speaking about odds and probability there is nothing concrete aside from over 4 Millions cars being recalled.....mostly preliminary.

I commend Toyota, not for the mistake but for the actions to fix the mistake and I have no doubt they will come out on top, probably right in time to debut the 2011 Toyota Camry.

ALl that to say, 009, I hope you're having fun.


Agent009Agent009 - 2/4/2010 12:55:50 PM
+1 Boost
Actually, I am refraining on over half of the Toyota posts. It is getting really crazy.

I often wonder if this was GM would it be so crazy?

The biggest issue surfacing so far, is not the fact there are issues.
It is the refusal to acknowledge them as issues and the appearance of multiple cover ups.

On the surface (and I repeat on the surface), it appears they were working so hard to protect their rock solid name that they went to extremes.

If the continual digging uncovers bonafide acts of this nature they are in for real trouble.

Would the American buyer now trust an automaker that has lied to them numerous times?

For everyone's sake I hope none of this is true.


ContXContX - 2/4/2010 12:02:51 PM
+1 Boost
Right, because Toyota was so willing to accept their mistakes...
http://www.leftlanenews.com/report-toyota-only-issued-recall-after-tremendous-pressure-from-federal-officials.html


lexworldlexworld - 2/4/2010 12:17:22 PM
0 Boost
Man talkin about the devils advocate! Agent009 nails the word Toyota Hate with a capitol H!..........


Agent009Agent009 - 2/4/2010 12:59:28 PM
-2 Boost
If everything stopped right now. Toyota would be fine. Decades of excellent products will over shadow this short window of time.

Currently out of 6 cars in the stable, 2 are affected by this recall, and 1 will not be.


XYZZXYZZ - 2/5/2010 6:51:05 AM
+2 Boost
yup. i suspect the off-duty cop also initially MASHED THE GAS to downshift and pass somebody, thereby JAMMING the pedal behind the floormat.

even with the sticky pedal cases, how many drivers were there who ALSO likely MASHED THE PEDAL to get past the sticky point?

imho, THIS is the TRUE, final contributing factor which has been so elusive. floormats and sticky pedals, most can manage. MASHING the gas, only a few hotheads tend to do. (and how many investigators tried THAT in failed replication tests?)


XYZZXYZZ - 2/5/2010 7:02:05 AM
+3 Boost
and then, the FINAL, FATAL critical factor, was incompetent drivers who likely DO NOT KNOW what the "N" is for. they've been driving since they (barely) got their license, using ONLY P, D, and R.

once again, as agent009 pointed out, for the 20-odd millions of toyotas sold, or even among the 7.7 M in these recalls, there were ALL OF a measly 19 casualties.

even among the drivers in this country with room temperature IQs, there HAS to have been at least 19 dumb enuff to kill themselves in PERFECTLY SAFE and CONTROLLABLE cars.


SteveSteve - 2/4/2010 2:35:40 PM
+2 Boost
Facts and emotions live in different universes, Agent009. The fact that a person stands a greater chance of dying while walking across the street than while driving a Toyota, gets overshadowed by the emotional response to 9 deaths, and imagining "what if it were me, or someone I knew?" The rational gives way to the emotional.

The facts also state that more people die world-wide from elephant attacks each year than shark attacks, and yet, elephants are perceived as "intelligent, gentle creatures," while sharks are perceived as "killing machines." Again, emotions trump facts.

All we need to do is read the postings by Autospies members to see overwhelming evidence to support my "emotions over facts" statement. Just browse the rantings of the BMW, Audi, Mercedes, Porsche, Lexus, Toyota, US-made haters/faboiz.

The Voice Of Reason is checking out, for now. Feel free to deboost me, all you want. I'll be back tomorrow to see the number of votes I get for Reason, and how many I get for Emotions :-D


thstonethstone - 2/4/2010 4:42:21 PM
-1 Boost
Easy to say as long as you're not the next one dead. Problem is, you have no idea whether you're number 20 or not. But I can absolutely guarentee you won't be #20 if you park your Toyota until its fixed.


bfghemicudabfghemicuda - 2/5/2010 12:13:50 PM
+1 Boost
So Badgewhore, The woman that had her gas pedal stick and propelled her to @100 mph and she went out of control and died which happened few years ago, NEVER HAPPENED! You said " But these recalled toyota never killed anyone". Come on!!!!


XYZZXYZZ - 2/6/2010 5:55:44 AM
+1 Boost
badgewhore COULD in fact be correct. the sticky pedals may have CONTRIBUTED to crashes. but ultimately, DRIVER actions may be the true arbiters of who crashesr and who does not.

investigators have had trouble pinpointing the cause(s). and almost invariably fail to REPLICATE the conditions.

probably because only the RARE dumb driver MASHES the gas, AND for whatever reason can NOT just shift to N.


quizzquizz - 2/4/2010 6:52:43 PM
+1 Boost
Why should any Autospies member care about Toyota? Unless one of us is a member of the Toyoda family or is somehow employed by Toyota, what's the big deal? A global manufacturer screws up and is being unfairly (maybe, maybe not) mocked/persecuted. Whether it's VW, GM or Honda, why do some posters take it so personally? As if it was "their" company being vilified. Some readers are treating this like they have a horse in the race. Toyota/GM/Ford/BMW they're all the same - business entities who just want to make money.


XYZZXYZZ - 2/5/2010 8:22:32 AM
+2 Boost
slowly, SLOWLY, we're zeroing in on the ACTUAL numbers.

i've seen 19 a few times now. for the number INJURED.

the number KILLED is less than 10. just 4 in san diego. and 4 (5?) in texas.


ExGCExGC - 2/5/2010 8:33:30 AM
+5 Boost
From what I've heard from a friend who works at Toyota, there are a total of 10 car accidents being investigated for the accelerator problem (as opposed to the floor mat problem). In none has there been a final conclusion that the accelerator was to blame. That of course doesn't mean it did or didn't. In almost all of the cases being investigated, the car was high mileage - 120,000K or more - and had not been serviced at a dealership in a long time. This doesn't mean that there is not a problem, but it puts the scope of it into perspective.


XYZZXYZZ - 2/6/2010 4:58:13 AM
+1 Boost
interesting insight. thanks!

imho, there is 'toyota mindset' that often strikes owners. used to the appliance-like RELIABILITY even with minimal to no maintenance, many owners DO NEGLECT and sometimes completely IGNORE maintenance!

also, to avoid high shop rates, many DO NOT go to the dealer for service. (i admit to doing both! i don't neglect maintenance, but do do it most MINIMALLY.)
Copyright 2026 AutoSpies.com, LLC