The GREAT Auto Industry RESET: Is The Car On Its Way To Becoming Extinct In 100 Years?

Can you hear that?

It is the sound of the automotive industry's screeching brakes.

In a very intriguing piece on the lagging auto industry, it seems clear that there is a "reset" in process. Not only has the industry taken a large hit from the macroeconomic times, but there is an overwhelming paradigm shift in the attitudes towards autos. Add in the possibility of even more restrictive CAFE standards and we're looking at scary times for the manufacturers.

They just aren't essential anymore, especially when the initial investment continues to rise, servicing isn't getting any cheaper and gas prices continue on its upward trend.

If you have heard the Spies say it once, we have said it a 1,000 times. The enthusiast is a dwindling majority.

What say you Spies, are we in store for a new social norm?

The Atlantic reports:

Are we moving beyond the auto age? Writing in Esquire, Nate Silver provides hard statistical evidence that America's once-overwhelming car-culture and driving habits have peaked. This article in Advertising Age (h/t: Patrick Adler) provides additional evidence that we may well be in the early stages of a reset in attitudes about driving and car ownership, especially among younger folks. Here are some key statistics from the article:

"In 1978, nearly half of 16-year-olds and three-quarters of 17-year-olds in the U.S. had their driver's licenses, according to Department of Transportation data. By 2008, the most recent year data was available, only 31 percent of 16-year-olds and 49 percent of 17-year-olds had licenses, with the decline accelerating rapidly since 1998."
"Twenty-somethings went from driving a disproportionate amount of the nation's highway miles in 1995 to under-indexing for driving in 2009."
"It's not just new drivers driving less. The share of automobile miles driven by people ages 21 to 30 in the U.S. fell to 13.7 percent in 2009 from 18.3 percent in 2001 and 20.8 percent in 1995."

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morhpthanu - 6/5/2010 10:03:43 PM

+3 Boost

This study cant go by age because of the changing age limits in different states and for people that had parents like me, I didnt get my license until I was seventeen and a half because my parents wouldnt let me get it until then. Just because I got my license at that age doesnt mean im not a car enthusiast.

Steve - 6/5/2010 10:58:43 PM

+8 Boost

Anyone who thinks they can forecast trends a century out is delusional.

Joe_Limon - 6/5/2010 11:05:11 PM

+2 Boost

The thing this article lacks is what is society going to use in place of the automobile? Public transportation does now, and will always lack freedom.

Lexus - 6/6/2010 1:24:31 AM

+3 Boost

Who wrote this article? ha...ha..ha.. So they think 100 years from now everyone in the U.S.A will NOT be driving? ha...ha...ha...

rxh8me9000 - 6/6/2010 3:10:07 AM

+3 Boost

In those days most people drove. Now a days lots of people walk,ride bikes,take buses and trains so its just times changing not necessarily enthusiast dying out. In 100 years I can care less if people drive or fly to the local supermarket because I wont be here to witness it.

kornholio - 6/6/2010 10:58:05 AM

+3 Boost

^ I agree with Accent Planet. Kids are not getting their licenses because they can't afford to buy cars anyways. And the parents are not much better off- so no gift car from mom and dad either.

LACMAN - 6/8/2010 8:26:44 AM

+1 Boost

Well I'll be d*mned! AccentPlanet made some sense?!?! He actually posted from our planet and not another world! :)

upwards - 6/6/2010 11:24:04 AM

+3 Boost

Yes in the 80's a full sized family car fully loaded was less than 20k fast forward to today and you will be doing good to get a fully loaded civic for that price.

800over - 6/7/2010 12:26:13 PM

+1 Boost

Not to mention the skyrocketing cost of insurance. Insurance for a 16 year old can be crazy on anything whereas my parents paid nothing to be added to their parents policy.

thstone - 6/7/2010 4:31:25 PM

+1 Boost

As a parent of two teenagers, I can attest to the fact that kids have changed.

Many teens today could care less about driving. Why?

1. Chauffers. Mom and dad have driven the kids everywhere, everday, for their entire lives and continue to do so regardless of their age. When we were 17 or 18, there was no worse embarressment than to be dropped off at school by your mom. Today's kids are quite happy to have a chauffer for life.

2. Cost. Between the cost of a car, insurance, gas, and maintanence; fewer kids can afford a car of their own. Fewer kids work part-time today because people in their 20's and 30's now have the jobs that teens used to get.

3. Traffic/Perceived Danger. Here in LA, traffic is a nightmare and its easy to see that some kids/parents would rather not have their 16-yr old out in that mess.

4. Generation-D. This is the don't-give-a-damn generation. Many of today's teens are basically hopeless. They could care less about anything. They grew up in an age of plenty, being spoiled by their parents who were more worried about their self-esteem than preparing them ready to live independently. They have been babied their whole lives and mom/dad have always bailed them out of any jams. They are basically cannot funtion as adults.

5. Other concerns. With everything else on their mind (Halo 3, Glee, Facebook, global warming, Obama, saving whales, more Halo 3, iPhone app's, and being barraged by sex, sex, sex, in the media 24/7), who has time for real life and learning to drive?

Most teens simply say, "Screw it. Mom or dad will drive me."