Running The Figures: What Is That New Volt REALLY Going To Cost You?

We have heard a lot about the Volt these last few days.  As with many new products many of the claims over the last year have since proved to be suspect at best.   However sorting the fact from the fantasy is part of the reality we face in the automotive world and fact is usually is far from the general opinion. 

With all of the discussion about just how much the Volt is going to save the world (not to mention GM) I decided to run some quick and dirty numbers just to see how it really stacks up.

Keep in mind we are too early into the process to tell you the following figures are gospel, but it is a combination of what we know right now and yes your mileage will vary. But here they are:

The Facts

1. The Volt will have a MSRP of $41,000 and qualify for a $7500 federal tax credit. It is important to note that this is a TAX CREDIT not a rebate.  If you are in the highest tax bracket out there the most you save is $2,600 overall bottom line.

2. According to the Wikipedia site devoted to the Volt (Which appears to GM maintained BTW) the EPA should rate the Volt around 48 MPG combined city and highway. 

3. Battery range is estimated to be around 40 miles. The Volt in many situations will NEVER use the gasoline motor thus can become a true EV.  GM says to estimate $1.50 a day to charge the battery.

The Variables:

1. Electricity and gas price will vary so only a snapshot in time can be used.  Gas is locked in at $2.59 per gallon of regular, and $2.89 per gallon for premium and diesel for this reason.

2. The Volt needs to be charged after each drive to become effective, if not your figures will be far worse.


The Rules

There is a lot of competition in this market and the cars almost always sell for something other  than the MSRP or have rebates. 

1.    Conventional models, hybrids, and  diesels all are trying to take a slice of this market and need to be considered. 

2.    All cars in this class have above average resale so it will not be computed in the end result. (remember this is a quick and dirty comparison)

3.    Lease options vary depending on a variety of factors so we will assume you bought the vehicle on a 5 year loan with 0% interest to be fair to all.

The Figures

The first three are pretty easy to do since there is only a fuel expense to figure. All breakouts are on avg miles per day.

Conventional: 2011 Honda Civic

Base	$16,000
Credit	$0
Total	$16,000

 

				Cost to	Total	Total	Annual	Annual
Miles/Day	MPG	Gallons	Fuel Cost	Recharge	Daily	Energy Cost	Payment	Total
33	29	1.1	$2.95	$0.00	$2.95	$1,076	$3,200	$4,276
40	29	1.4	$3.57	$0.00	$3.57	$1,3034	$3,200	$4,504
80	29	2.8	$7.14	$0.00	$7.14	$2,608	$3,200	$5,808
100	29	3.4	$8.93	$0.00	$8.93	$3,260	$3,200	$6,460

Hybrid: 2010 Prius

Base	$23,000
Credit	$0
Total	$23,000

 

				Cost to	Total	Total	Annual	Annual
Miles/Day	MPG	Gallons	Fuel Cost	Recharge	Daily	Energy Cost	Payments	Total
33	50	0.7	$1.71	$0.00	$1.71	$624	$4,600	$5,224
40	50	0.8	$2.07	$0.00	$2.07	$756	$4,600	$5,356
80	50	1.6	$4.14	$0.00	$4.14	$1,513	$4,600	$6,113
100	50	2.0	$5.18	$0.00	$5.18	$1,891	$4,600	$6,491

 

Diesel: 2011 Volkswagen Jetta TDI 

Base	$23,000
Credit	$0
Total	$23,000

 

				Cost to	Total	Total	Annual	Annual
Miles/Day	MPG	Gallons	Fuel Cost	Recharge	Daily	Energy Cost	Payments	Total
33	36	0.9	$2.65	$0.00	$2.65	$967	$4,600	$5,567
40	36	1.1	$3.21	$0.00	$3.21	$1,172	$4,600	$5,772
80	36	2.2	$6.42	$0.00	$6.42	$2,344	$4,600	$6,944
100	36	2.8	$8.03	$0.00	$8.03	$2,930	$4,600	$7,530

The Volt will have electricity figures provided.

2011 Chevrolet Volt

Base	$41,000
Credit	$7,500
Total	$33,500

 

					Total	Total	Annual	Annual
Miles/Day	MPG	Gallons	Fuel Cost	Recharge	Daily	Energy Cost	Payments	Total
33	48	0.0	$0.00	$1.25	$1.25	$456	$6,700	$7,156
40	48	0.0	$0.00	$1.50	$1.50	$548	$6,700	$7,248
80	48	0.8	$2.41	$1.50	$3.91	$1,427	$6,700	$8,127
100	48	1.3	$3.61	$1.50	$5.11	$1,866	$6,700	$8,566

Now I will be quick to point out the  going green is priceless to the environment.  But looking at these figures the price of going green still is substantial for the early adopters.

The question is: Will the public still embrace the Volt after these figures become public knowledge?





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ceric - 10/15/2010 1:09:36 PM

+1 Boost

You get full tax credit unless you get hit by AMT.

Agent009 - 10/15/2010 1:33:20 PM

+3 Boost

I adjusted the Volt total to reflect that scenario. So the end user can deduct $7,500 of of their tax total owed. It still didn't swing the Volt from last place.

Michael - 10/15/2010 1:21:29 PM

0 Boost

If the vehicle is leased, the assumption is that the leasor is given the full tax break of 7,500, thus significantly reducing the figure listed in your table for the Volt.
The next figure which is not taken into account is the anticipated resale. I strongly suggest that we check out Edmunds in the near future as I expect that they will have a true cost of ownership available soon.

Agent009 - 10/15/2010 1:26:10 PM

+4 Boost

Resale will be greatly affected by battery life and replacement cost.

But you probably can look at GM hybrids for a basic benckmark. But then again all of the cars above have very good resale figures.

Agent009 - 10/15/2010 2:24:07 PM

+4 Boost

Just ran the lease deals and it isn't pretty:

Down Payment 36 Month Total
Civic $1,400 $159 $7,124
Prius $2,500 $199 $9,664
Jetta $2,000 $239 $10,604
Volt $2,500 $350 $15,100

Michael - 10/15/2010 1:25:11 PM

0 Boost

It also strikes me that perhaps the level of options included on a vehicle should be taken into account as well as comparing the vehicle to something that is more likely to be compared, e.g., I would imagine that perhaps the Prius level 4 might be closer for comparison, and that vehicle is over 30k.

Agent009 - 10/15/2010 1:31:00 PM

+4 Boost

The striking thing to me is that the more you drive the less of a difference you get. After the Volt runs out of battery it is all downhill after that. With the hybrid at least there is not penalty for driving over a number of miles in a day.

A quick survey in my office resulted in 8 out of 10 drivers driving more than 50 miles a day which made it unfeasible. if you putter around on a few errands and keep it on full electric you save the most.

ImOnABoat - 10/15/2010 2:01:04 PM

+2 Boost

How about maintenance costs for first 3 years? VW $0, not sure about the rest. Not to mention I previously worked at a VW shop from 99-05 and I never once heard someone or confirmed via onboard computers that someone was receiving 30c - 42h mileage with any diesel. Averages were in fact much higher. Some TDI beetle owners got crazy numbers like 55+ (Old lady drivers especially).

Give the tables a added column for best case fuel efficiency as I'm sure the volt numbers are also in question.

Agent009 - 10/15/2010 2:39:15 PM

+3 Boost

Always a factor but Toyota, and VW now cover that portion. Honda shouldn't be much of an issue on a lease.

Joe_Limon - 10/15/2010 2:42:30 PM

-4 Boost

Nice to see you run through the numbers 009. I expected the expensive volt to come in last. But why did you use the 48mpg on the volt? Wasn't that the fuel economy for the car running at 80mph with full ac through the mountains on no charge? If the prius was tested alongside the volt I'm sure it would be somewhere closer to 40mpg.

Also, I don't understand how you got 41,000-7500=38,400?

Agent009 - 10/15/2010 3:43:19 PM

+3 Boost

48 MPG was on the Wiki page for the Volt which is was what GM expects to see from the EPA when the rate it. That page appears to be updated daily by GM or someone close to them.

38,400 was a typo from a correction it is 33,500 which i just corrected, the rest of the figures are correct.

Agent009 - 10/15/2010 3:49:13 PM

+4 Boost

Chevy was going to promote leasing and I guess what is so scary is the lease figures aren't any better. Even with a zero fuel cost figures for the Volt all three of the competitors are cheaper to own.

Yes the Volt is greener, but typically not too many people will pay a premium to be green. They want cost savings.

I'm not sure what the angle is quite yet.

Joe_Limon - 10/15/2010 5:17:25 PM

-4 Boost

ok :)

That seems fair an unbiased.

I still hold that the best way to save your wallet and the environment is to pick up an old Honda CRX. ;) good fuel economy plus no new pollution in making the car.

uaw_lax - 10/16/2010 12:13:10 AM

-1 Boost

1. The volt is the biggest of all the mentioned cars.
2. I am not sure if the 48 MPG is in fact true or even if the Wiki page was not generated by a fan since GM has it's own website dedicated to the Volt,

Joe_Limon - 10/16/2010 1:32:54 PM

-1 Boost

size rating is based on interior volume not the number of seats you can cram into a vehicle.

Joe_Limon - 10/16/2010 3:21:57 PM

-1 Boost

Oh really? Do you have any evidence to back your accusations? What is the interior volume of this compact?

uaw_lax - 10/16/2010 8:03:22 PM

-3 Boost

Sportbike Show me where I said what class the Volt was in. All of your comments are lies backtracks or spins.

uaw_lax - 10/16/2010 1:46:08 AM

-2 Boost

2011 Volkswagen Jetta TDI Volkswagen claims 0-to-60-mph acceleration times of 9.8 seconds for the five .

Honda Civic 0-60 mph in about 9.6 seconds with automatic transmission

Video: Chevy Volt Does 0 to 60 in 8.53 seconds, Gets Over 40 Miles EV Rang

Also with the standard Volt you get 7' LCD NAV (extra for the other mentioned cars), and a cool customizable cluster not found on any of the other mentioned cars. To sum it all up the volt comes well extremely equipped for it's price and is bigger and faster than the competition has a longer warranty but is being compared to the base models cars above. Not to mention it has the potential to be driven gas free.

tango - 10/16/2010 5:24:21 PM

0 Boost

For me the decision to drive a diese or a hybrid is based on one solitary thing. I want to give less money to OPEC and the other non-OPEC countries that slavishly follow their lead. I couldn't care less what the cost of the Prius or the Volt will be as long as I can afford the one I want. Plain and simple.

uaw_lax - 10/18/2010 6:20:33 AM

-3 Boost

do not insult Tangos intelligence he will mot buy a car that cant fill his needs so he will be buying a Volt.

Escalade1 - 10/18/2010 6:33:09 AM

-1 Boost

Leaf is only useful for city driving the Volt can go across the country on its own my money is on the Volt

uaw_lax - 10/18/2010 7:20:55 AM

-4 Boost

Chevy volt top speed of 100 plus mph 0 to 60 of 8.53 seconds.

Leaf top speed of 76 mph 0 to 60 10 seconds.

amtexas - 11/1/2010 3:34:09 AM

+1 Boost

The world is not what it used to be, so many emerging economies, China, India and many others with their emerging middle class and new drivers. There is just no way there is going to be enough gas for everybody, oil demand will continue to increase and oil production will only start to decrease in the coming years. Oil price will go up again soon, these are the last years of cheap oil. Try to run a Prius on $8/gal (or even more) gas vs. Volt at $1.5 for the first 40 miles.