EXCLUSIVE: Tomorrow's sales numbers for the big three? Here's the inside scoop before tomorrow's bell

The Spies give you a heads up before tomorrow's announcements

From a confidential analysts report to investors

Automakers will report May U.S. auto sales results tomorrow. We are expecting another weak month for the U.S. Big Three, and a light vehicle SAAR of approximately 16 MM (slightly better than the 15.7 MM we derived from our mid-month survey, but weak relative to the first four months of this year and the 16.5 MM achieved in May of last year). We estimate GM sales will decline in the -12% to -13% range, Ford -8% to -10%, and Chrysler -15%. We expect the Asian OEMs to collectively be up around 10%, with Toyota leading the way (up mid-double digits), followed by Honda (up 10%). Nissan could be down 6%. Besides the overall sales results, we expect the Street to focus on mix trends. We are particularly focused on pickup trucks--a critical earnigns generator for the Big Three U.S. automakers which has recently begun to show signs of stress. GM and Ford will also reveal Q3 production plans when they release numbers tomorrow. Given the company's market share decline, already high inventories (86 days at the end of April), and a stated desire to avoid expensive (and brand eroding) incentive campaigns, we believe there's risk of double digit cuts to GM production in the back half of 2006.

Suppliers with significant GM exposure appear to be at risk of earnings misses in the back half.

DiamondJim - 5/31/2006 6:11:30 PM

+1 Boost

this news is discounted in the stock months ahead of time. current price reflects what's on tap for the future, as a consequence whomever trades on this news is obviously an amateur or is just one of the many computer trading programs set to trade on ineffiencies.

courtstone - 6/7/2006 3:12:58 PM

+1 Boost

Stinky you couldn't have said it more clear!
I am a 26 year old level headed guy here in Texas. I used to have two fords and a chrysler. And not only do i value looks and sophistication, I also look for build quality, resale value, road manners, performance and again, quality.

I agree the new Escalade is bad...it demands attention. The chrysler 300 is nice too, but what will we think of them 3-4 years from now? will they stand up to toyota/honda's quality? No i am not biased in any way. I do feel for employee's etc. that will be affected if GM goes down. I personally think that if the japanese can build a better car, then they deserve the sale. I am patriotic, but i will not side with the big three out of pitty.

I now drive a nicely equipped Honda Accord, the Sebring i had did not even compare. I dont understand why GM/Ford/DCX can't, at the least, buy a BMW/Toyo/Honda/Audi and take it apart, examine it, see what they do better!!!! See what they are doing, damn, mimic them if you have to! Its all about quality...i just feel for the real people that will lose if GM loses.