Yeah, no way.
But according to a chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, he is predicting that US auto sales will be back at the "normal" zone of 15 to 16 million vehicles sold in 2011. To say that's a little rosy would be putting it nicely.
That's because there are so many factors we would have to forget, like...
1) Has the housing market found a bottom? I wouldn't say so.
2) Gas prices are on a gradual rise
3) Unemployment is still significant
4) December 2010 US SAAR data revealed around 12.5 million vehicles sold. In this market, seeing a 2 - 4 million bump is a bit...ambitious.
5) The basis for the strategist's argument is not entirely applicable since the recent economic downturn isn't entirely comparable to previous happenings.
Is 00R onto something or will cars soon be flying off dealer lots like hot cakes?To be straightforward, I am reasonably confident that this forecast could very well be the most ridiculous thing I have seen in the past 12 months related to the automotive industry.
James W. Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, sees U.S. auto sales bouncing “back to normal” by year’s end. “Normal” being “a rate of 15 million to 16 million vehicles.” Bloomberg painted a nice Chart of the Day, which seems to support that gutsy theory.
Paulsen and Bloomberg charted the recoveries after the 1981-1982 and 1990- 1991 recessions, and overlaid them with the current sales rebound. If that rebound behaves like the previous rebounds, the chart says anywhere between 14 and 15 million by year’s end, but let’s not quibble...[Source: The Truth About Cars]
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