Do You Believe It? Ray LaHood Predicts Every US Family Will Have At Least One Hybrid Or EV By 2025

Only if the Fed makes it cost effective via credits will that come close to happening.

Not unless there is a widespread change in the way the population thinks over the next 12 years.

People have predicted lots of things. Almost all predictions are wrong because they take today's thinking, add some wild optimism, and voila! You have "The Future."

If the misappropriation of taxpayer dollars in the form of tax credits for EVs keeps worsening (administration wants it to go up from $7.5k to $10k) then we'll just see more affluent BMW and Prius owners move to Volts or ELRs or Teslas. Woohoo. The estimated cost of this $10k credit, according to the administration, is $4.2 billion. That's if it pays for 420k EVs. The government's optimistic "1 million EVs" goal would make this more like $10 billion. I'd be happier if that kind of money went towards high speed rail funding and other good public transportation initiatives. That would improve quality of life for far more people in the long run and would serve the purpose of effectively removing more vehicles from roads, decreasing congestion as well as oil dependence and pollutant/GHG emissions. This tax credit seems more like the government giving Detroit a handjob than something fiscally responsible. As for this guy's prediction, I don't think so. "Every family" is quite an extraordinary prediction and I can't imagine a scenario where it will come true. A massive increase in fuel prices will drive people towards EVs and hybrids and FCVs and other high-mpg vehicles, but "every" family is just silly to say.

The next thing you know they'll start subsidizing big oil!

Okay let's drop the EV tax credit. However, in order for this to be fair, let's also drop all gas subsidies. That would put gas at $6-7 a gallon. Sound fair?

Take today's Tesla, already a near perfect car, double its range to 600miles due to "moores law", half its cost due to volume / production / technology efficiencies, and recharge them wirelessly using induction. That's already in the near forseeable future. Now add graphene super capacitors, charging in seconds or minutes, and a BMW'esque model lineup of small, mid, large, crossover, SUV... and why wouldn't half of America have one?

Because it would be really fucking expensive that's why. Be honest with yourself and stand at a busy intersection for fifteen minutes. Take note of what cars you see. Figure out the average cost. Compare it to a Tesla. See how far off you are. Then slap yourself.

I guess you didn't read his post. He said in 12 years the cost of a tesla will be half what it is now. (35k?) But again I guess you'd have to read. 1st quarter sale of hybrids up 20%....now make up 4% of sales (and that doesn't include EVs) Companies will keep making more of there fleet hybrids. If gas prices continue to rise over the next 12 years (anyone think they won't) then you'll see a higher uptake of hybrids/diesels/EVs.

I'll still have diesels in my driveway.