If Tesla Became A Full Line Automaker In 2016 Which Of These Models Would Be A Success?

If Tesla became a "full line" automaker in 2016, it would be dead by 2018. They cannot go from throwing batteries into a Lotus (and pretending to be a manufacturer), the making the Model S (with no track record to speak of), to full line automaker and be taken seriously.

Unlike Mercedes, Tesla does NOT have a proven track record of excellence.

Elon Musk will sell this swindle to the first moron that believe the emperor's new clothes are real and will laugh his butt off when it all implodes.

Lol. You're the moron. No proven track record of excellence? What the f are you talking about? Since it's been on sale, the Model S has won countless awards including Motor Trend car of the year, Automobile Magazine Automobile of the year and landed on Car and Driver's 10 Best. No Mercedes on that list. It's gotten rave reviews from almost everyone who's driven it including the European press. Christian Von Koenigsegg owns one and calls it the best driving sedan in the world. It got the highest rating ever from Consumer Reports. It's the safest car ever tested according to NHTSA and Euro NCAP. It's got the most satisfied owners in the industry - 98% say they would buy one again. It's reliability has proven BETTER than the Mercedes S class. What else do you want? Do you really need to wait fifty before you can admit that Tesla is making an exceptional product?

You are what's called a naysayer. If the year was 1908 I'm sure you'd be shouting that this strange new contraption called the Model T doesn't have the record of excellence of your horse drawn carriage.

Thank goodness there were and continue to be people who are not fearful of innovation and who embrace the disruptive technologies that force industry forward.

I generally agree with M but not exactly this time. I think Tesla does have a track record of excellence. The Tesla roadster was a hoot and the Model S is a top rated car. Remember until recently Mercedes went through a spate of poor quality cars and even the much admired new Mercedes S Class is already being reported up as problematic because of its extensive electronics and associated problems.

That said, I do think Tesla will have big challenges becoming a mainline manufacturer and that's related to access to capital. Mercedes R&D budget and every other budget line is colossal. It would be hard for Tesla to readily gain access to that capital without nonstop incremental growth.

... cool pics BTW...

The number of awards you get has NOT sold any current Tesla Vehicles in Numbers that would be considered MAINSTREAM and there is NO reason to believe that sales of the currently Expensive vehicles they have that are sold to wealth people - will translate into sales to middle class America. We don't even have any statistics to support what will happen in Used car sales - outside of Tesla control.

Making an Electric Truck that has BOTH The range and the Payload Capacities will be quite different from what they do now as well.

And also remember - that up until recently - they had a virtual monopoly on the long range electric car market - which will not be the case in two or three years. AND until THAT happens - we really do not know if Tesla will be a preferred purchase over other options.

However - the likelihood of Tesla becoming a FULL Line mainstream manufacturers of cars and trucks in MOST categories by 2016 - is about equal to Nasa landing humans on Mars by that time- it is NOT going to happen - so why even ask the question?

Had to chuckle reading the list of accolades Tesla has collected. The Chevy Vega, Citation, Corvair and a host of others (Edsel?) could also make that claim yet they were not long term market successes. Right now 50% of Tesla's annual volume comes from California's two largest urban areas where great wealth prevails. "Urban" as in a city vehicle where range is less of an issue. To be seen as moving toward a full line manufacturer Tesla needs to move down into a city car that young "green" professionals can afford or fits into the ZIP car fleet. Like the Chevy Bolt.

None of the cars you mentioned got anywhere near the universal acclaim that the Model S has received. That said, you're absolutely right that Tesla needs an affordable entry before they can move toward being a full line manufacturer. The Model 3 promises to be just that. We shall see...

I don't see why anyone should even buy those. I mean, there are already far better alternatives.

Compact economy car? Toyota and Honda.
Supercar? Nissan GT-R and Acura NSX.
Pick up trucks? Toyota and Nissan.

Those cars are meant to be practical and reliable.

I would say the truck. Gas is a big expense to people who regularly use a truck for their daily work. Make it rugged enough with a 250mile real world range and I think it would sell pretty darn good.

VIA Trux is about to test this hypothesis by unveiling their Silverado 1500 converted EREV truck for about $65,000 to consumers by the end of this year. Musk has said himself that he has a soft spot for trucks so we'll see.

The torque would be useful for towing as well. Though I think a 3-series competitor will be their best shot at mainstream success. Although if that drawing on top had a sub 30k price point, it would catch a lot of peoples attention.