Tesla Says New Model X Crossover Should Double Sales - Is The Market For An EV SUV That Big?

I'm just waiting for it to all come crashing down. The Model S is Tesla's first real car because bolting batteries into a Lotus makes one a retrofitter not a manufacturer. The Model S hasn't been around long enough to really know how durable it will be as the fleet goes past 100K miles and 10 years. I'm not saying they have to wait 10 years to do their second vehicle, but to do a second vehicle that potentially will double sales by an automaker without any experience at that volume of production could lead to less that wonderful results.

I cannot justify paying to Tesla their asking price. I'd gamble on an Alfa Romeo with big bucks, but not a Tesla.

Can you hear a tiny violin skipping around...?

Tesla sold a record 11,507 of the three year old Model S for Q2-2015 and another 10,045 for Q1-2015. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_S#/media/File:Global_sales_Tesla_Model_S_by_quarter.png

They are still to this day supply-constrained.

And increasing supply increases the likelihood of more defects.

Given Darringer's logic, no one should start a new car company. Ever. Imagine what a lame world we would live in if everyone thought that way. We would all still be riding horses;)

Prediction -

The Model X will completely cannibalize sales of the existing Model S (which is in need of a refresh).

Any "new" conquest sales (i.e. sales to non-Tesla customers) will only occur if the Model X is priced very cheap as compared to others in the marketplace (I'm thinking "on the road" at $45,000). By definition, people who buy an SUV need "go anywhere" capability with zero range anxiety and that is incompatible with Tesla's offerings, even factoring in the supercharger network.

Very curious to see where this goes. I'm skeptical to say the least.

Some cannibalization, even a substantial one is likely, however not everyone wants an SUV. There may also be other factors such as the controversial falcon doors, the cost, and efficiency that may keep buyers with the Model S.

I am curious as well, but with a healthy suspension of disbelief.

The naysayers are dreamin'. Tesla is just getting started, and I think this is going to be a incredible success.

BobM - - - Did you read the article in you link? Tesla lost $3B in market capital over two days, not one day, and they still have a market cap of $32+B. Tesla is up 15% for the year, compared to a S&P which is at a loss for the year. Hardly a sign of going out of business.

To put this is perspective, just look at the past five days for these stocks:
1-Jul 8-Jul Loss
Tesla 271.2 254.96 -6%
FMC 52.74 48.72 -8%
GM 33.69 31.19 -7%
BMW 101.75 92.09 -9%

If the Model X is as revolutionary as Musk promises, it will be a runaway success. Given the multiple delays, I'm betting they have a very polished and refined product to introduce. More than likely it will be a home run for the company.

I don't think Model X will quite double it, maybe give it a 25-30pc boost. Why?

Most people who want an EV already have one which they bought >3 years ago. And most people don't change cars less than every 3 years. SUVs don't sell as well as cars outside of USA (even though most people want one).

I love that Tesla is forcing traditional car manufacturers to innovate. Its good for all of us no matter what type of car we want. The future of cars have some form of electric element to it.

I'm more concerned with saving the manual from extinction on sports sedans and sports cars than Tesla's SUV-based future. The next Tesla article will be skipped over just like the last one.

With buyers flocking to SUVs, no doubt the X will be a big seller for Tesla especially given their relatively small sales. Only quirk for some may be the operation of the back doors. CR's endorsement confirms they can build the best.

Seems like a lot of anti-innovation nonsense here. I for one like to see an industry disrupted. It is just often too hard for the old to reinvent themselves.

To the Nay sayers... Have you actually driven a Tesla Model S before?

Having just migrated from a X6 to Model S, inspite of our detailed research, have blown away our expectations.... And it will only get better with new software upgrades.

In speaking with a Porsche senior sales guy, I asked as to why car companies don't do what Tesla have done with their 'innovations', which seems to me is simple enough, the answer was that it is not that the car companies can't do it, it is that they won't do it.

When it is time to replace our 2014 Cayenne, it will probably be a Tesla X. Hopefully in a few years time, when we replace our 14 R8, Tesla would have a new sports car.