When The Tesla Model X Goes On Sale, Does The Model S Stand A Chance In The Sales Race?

Sales of the Model S won't tank but no, it will not match the volume of the Model X. We live in a land of luxury SUV lovers.

He who would have bought a 911 or Panamera goes for the Model S; he who considered a Cayenne or Macan goes for the Model X. Porsche will never stop selling 911's.

Tesla is fast creating a legend to rival's the world's most renowned automobile brands... incredible in only 10 years. This is doing to the auto industry what Apple did to the cell phone... a new paradigm. Hats off. Welcome to the 3rd millenium.

1 - It depends on the PRICE of the SUV, IF it is WAY above the model S - then the S will still get SOME sales

Sorry - but the actual sales of the Model S - and its price range - fails to compare to Apple whose products are mainstream and while more expensive - they are still within reach of the middle class. -the S is simply a rich mans way to go green. THere remains two problems for Tesla - 1 - Eventually there will be competition - both at their price point - and also well below. At that point - we will see just how good they really are.
2 - Their closed method of sales excluding independent dealers - and closed service excluding independent service people - will eventually cause their used prices to plummet. A used car dealer (Or a Regular new car dealer) does not want a car that they cannot service on their lots. That is their method of making money by using their own ability to service to bring the cars that they take in to a higher level and sell at a profit. The example would be a Tesla owner trading his car in for a new Rolls Royce, Bentley - or Ferrari - etal. The only real buyer at the wholesale level "COULD" be Tesla itself - and how long will it artificially keep used prices up. It cannot afford to buy every car back.

@TomM - The price of the Model S and X will be within low single digit % difference. So pretty much the same.

The Tesla Model 3 will be easily attainable for the middle class. Even the CP0 Model S cars are increasingly finding themselves in the hands of the middle class.

The Tesla Model S is already the best selling premium full sized sedan in the US (gas or electric). So they will be able to compete just fine.

2 - Not sure what in the world you are talking about. Tesla has a direct sales model (which most people love and has the highest customer satisfaction).

For service, Tesla has an independent body shop certification program which allows independent shops to service and repair cars.

Tesla actually makes a pretty good profit on the CPO program, so they can easily afford to buy them all back if needs be. But overall they sell far better on the private market. In modern day there are things like ebay and craiglist so there are plenty of alternatives to sell.

And while you are right that used car dealers do not keep cars they don't service, they do buy them and end up auctioning them instead.

That said, with the Ford F150 being aluminum. It means that most places will need to be able to service aluminum. In doing so, that takes out the largest financial burden to servicing Tesla cars. So there is little reason not to get Tesla certification once you have the means to work on aluminum already.

Resale values of the Tesla Roadster to this day remain strong.

The Tesla product offering is quite nice, though I am not a customer for one. As Tom M points out, there are some serious problems with Telsa's business model down the line - both on the "buy-back" issue he cites but more importantly at the time of the inevitable end of govt subsidies for electrics. If a Republican gets elected and ends the E-subsidies, Tesla's stock value will plunge overnight.

Also, I strongly believe that Tesla is essentially a "one-product" company and that the people who are on the waiting list for the Model X are primarily existing Model S customers (my 3 friends with a Model S are all on the list to trade in to a Model X when launched). I think Model S sales will tank once the X is launched. I also am highly skeptical that the Model 3 can be sold as cheaply as Tesla promotes.

In fact, if you look carefully at the spy shots of the Model X - the awkward proportions seems to indicate that it is just a re-bodying of the Model S - with a very similar interior. I can wait to see how the dimensions compare. The Model X is not as good looking as the Model S.

I think there are icebergs on the horizon for them.

@mre30 - There is no issue with the buyback stuff, and the EV subsidies are not going to end if republicans get power, if you actually look at history, most EV subsidies were passed under republicans. That said the EV subsidies will most likely expire themselves as they hit the 200k mark for each manufacturer. Overall though it will make no difference to EVs as prices are dropping at a pretty fast rate due to economies of scale.

Tesla is not a 1 product company, there are many people who have an S and want to buy and X for their wives or etc. There are also a lot of people who don't have an S and are waiting on the X.

Based on doing financial calculations on Tesla's gross profit margins vs overall cost, I see no reason why Tesla would not be able to deliver the Model 3 for the cost promised.

The Model X interior looks pretty different from Model S based on Alpha. The front exterior shares styling with Model S but is different. That said this is the Alpha and the final look has not been revealed yet.

Weapon -

Your statement "..Tesla is not a 1 product company, there are many people who have an S and want to buy and X for their wives..." is a throwback to 1982 when a portly, middle-aged, white, male Cadillac executive said to a NY Auto Show audience:

"...We are very optimistic about the sales potential for the Cimmarron..many of our existing customers will buy them for their wives.." implication - the wives are idiots and won't know any better that they are driving a tarted up Cavalier.

Are you implying the Model X should fall into the same category as a Cimmarron?

Tesla is not even a one product category company. Lookup Tesla Energy and their quarterly results released today.

I was enamored with the Model X but it really is a pointless vehicle. You don't get much more storage room, the ground clearance is no different and in snow climates, the doors will push snow into the vehicle when opened. Also, it doesn't allow for a roof rack (apparently Tesla is designing some which will be insanely priced).

I'd take the Model S, the rear doors make more sense and it looks better.