It's 2016 Where Are All Of Those 1 Million EV Cars Obama Wanted On The Road?

Several things happened which made people think twice about the advantages of an EV:

- The collapse of gas prices at the pump (more than 50% lower)

- Used EVs coming up for sale and their prices are dismal, partly due to low gas prices (low demand for new units), and partly due to the diminished life remaining on the batteries and the scary-high price of new batteries.

- Rise in electricity rates in some regions, and awareness that the "clean" electricity comes from burning coal, natural gas, or garbage (still the case for the majority of electricity sourced in the North America).

Keep in mind, the numbers tell us that the collapse of gas prices has NOT collapsed the EV market! The fact is that over the past few years, the EV market has simply been flat, and not growing in any meaningful way. The points above, plus range anxiety, plus recharge time that's far longer than refueling at the pump, plus higher purchase price, plus often quirky styling, all conspire against the popularity of EVs.

As at today, we can conclude that EVs are cool, but for relatively few people. That's why lots of them aren't on the road. Someday, maybe... but for today, EVs are a tiny minority, even in Europe and other regions where gas is expensive.

BobM: For the life of me, I can't see how your politically inspired, anti-Obama post in any way explains why EVs have failed to get the traction that some people had hoped for.

TheSteve sounds almost rational, but still skips on some important details on EV ownership. The "scary-high" price of new batteries is one, not mentioning battery warranties or observer life expectancy and how the costs have fallen nearly ten-fold in the past ten years ($1,000 per kWh in 2007, $145 today), the sources of clean electricity is another (solar and wind are now cheaper that coal).

I predict that within a year he will be darting around in a solar-powered Model X and will be a complete convert ;)

vdiv: I share your vision that in the future of the human species, we will abandon internal combustion engines to propel our vehicles. I just don't think it will be as quickly as "within a year," as you state.

viv. Call us on that hot humid summer night when the sun don't shine, the wind don't blow and there isn't any power for your AC, let alone your solar car. Your projected sources of power are all not continuous. Coal, gas, nuclear and in non drought times hydro are. As far as coal being more expensive than wind and solar tell that to the folks in the midwest who pay $.06 to $.08/kwh for their coal electricity, while I sell my solar power for a government controlled $.23/kwh. Local wind projects have all failed due to expensive power that cannot compete with continuous sources. Were are you getting this stuff?

Vette71, the sun does shine and the wind does blow somewhere, we have a grid, and we will have energy storage with utility scale batteries, home batteries, molten salt, pumped hydro, etc. It will not replace the traditional power sources overnight, but no new coal or nuclear will be built as they are just too expensive.

The $145/kWh was leaked from GM, they were very unhappy about it. Tesla's battery gigafactory is already operational. Sure, it will take time to finish the whole facility and ramp up production, but remember, just a couple of years ago there was nothing there.

vdiv. Unfortunately the greens are also fighting the grid lines needed for new power sources. See the huge solar farm built in So. Cal. that cannot get approval to get that power to LA. Quebec wants to sell Boston hydro power, but NH greens won't let the transmission lines get built. Yes Musk is building his battery factory, but will the product be cost effective? Not so far, and definitely not for a small solar plant, like the ones my neighbors and I have. He is talking $20,000 for 3kw, which is not cost effective. Maybe in a couple of decades but not now. Coal plants too expensive? China brings a new coal plant on line every week. Chile digs the coal China burns it. It is only expensive in the USA because our government made it so, but in reality coal is less expensive. Natural gas plants are very inexpensive, and run 24/7, IF you can get the gas. Your optimism is great, but need a dose of economic and time reality.

Consumer oriented government programs tend to ignore reality and then they wonder why they didn't work. Right now the reality for a huge majority of Americans (90+%?)is EVs don't make sense economically or practically. Give the folks credit for their common sense! Will EV's become a force in the market? Maybe, but huge technical hurdles (electrical storage?) still need to be overcome, and the greens need to develop a rational one step at a time plan for the transition from what currently exists to a a cost effective green energy economy. They have a long way to go on that as merely using windmills and solar doesn't come anywhere near meeting our energy needs. FYI I live in a zero CO2 home that has solar panels and geothermal HVAC, but still buy(and sell) electricity. The greens just forced the closure of our two nuke plants, all the coal plants and are blocking the needed new natural gas pipelines for new gas plants and object to the power lines to bring hydro power to us. A tad irrational. The cost per mile to fuel my urea diesel is the same as charging a Tesla.

Vette71: I drive a 2015 Audi Q5 3.0 diesel, and the fuel economy is impressive. I got a legit all-time high of 40.74 MPG (US) on a tank! My average cost per mile since day-1 for fuel is US$0.074. Pretty impressive! I don't know if or how that'll be affected when VW/Audi clean up their act and a recall brings emissions in line with laws.

Sorry - but Your political reference is misplaced. If asked four years ago - no body in the industry would have predicted that the USA would achieve energy independence again - much less this quickly - and it is the lack of US DOllars going overseas that is quashing the economies of the middle east - where they then MUST pump even more oil to sustain their standards of living - so a glut of oil has crashed the prices - AND THAT is why EVs are not selling - there is no economic case that can be made for them - they cost more - and cost as much to run in many urban areas - as cars. You wake up.

AS far as the loans and incentives - they HAD to be passed by a Republican congress for them to be available - so blaming Obama for them ignores the reality of the government. While I agree that the government should be funding more basic research - the AUTO industry is a major player in our economy - and basic to it right now. And blaming OBAMA alone for doing this is another LIE of yours - he cannot do it alone - and did not. Supporting large industries to help the rich stay richer is a Republican goal.

@TomM, your check from the Obama regime is in the mail. If anything we are MORE at risk for an energy interruption given how gleefully the idiot in chief has encouraged the growth of ISIS. DeMoncrats simply refuse to see facts and they base all their rhetoric on emotion. The Republicans are being obstructionist ONLY in the sense that they are doing their best to save the nation from the clusterscrew of American sheeple by a man elected for the color of his skin, but not the content of his character.

TomM: According to the data I've been looking at...
(1) EV market share in the US over the past 3 years has been flat
(2) WTI Crude (commodity contracts) started crashing in late June 2014 from ~US$107/barrel to today's ~$30
(3) Brent Crude (commodity contracts) started crashing in late June 2014 from ~US$115 to today's ~$30
(4) RBOB Gasoline, AKA RUG, AKA Regular Unleaded gasoline (commodity contracts) started crashing in late June 2014 from ~US$3.13/gallon to today's $1.04

The EV market share in the 1.5 years before the oil and gas price crash, as well as the 1.5 years after the crash, has remained relatively flat, suggesting to *ME* that EV sales do not have a meaningful correlation with crude oil prices or gasoline prices. Meanwhile, since the gasoline price crash, sales of gas-guzzling vehicles like large SUVs and bigger cars have shot up, while hybrid sales have sharply declined.

These numbers suggest to me:
(1) EV sales are inelastic. They're not related to gas prices. Pure EVs appeal to a tiny segment of the car-buying public.
(2) When gas prices are high, people are inspired to buy more hybrids, in the hope that they'll save money in the long term
(3) When has prices are low, people get what they actually want, which happens to burn more gas

Some of us knew Obama Bin Barack was an idiot in 2008. Thankfully the end of his fiscally irresponsible, treasonous, criminal regime is about to end.

The reality is that there is enough supply of fossil fuels to sustain cars easily for another 50 years. The second reality is that hybrids and EVs are NOT more environmentally friendly. If anything, the opposite.