EV And Hybrid Values Plummet On Cheap Gas - Does It Make Sense To Even Consider One?

EV And Hybrid Values Plummet On Cheap Gas - Does It Make Sense To Even Consider One?

Beware! Falling gasoline prices are hitting the residual values of used hybrids and electrics -- hard. The influx of used small cars set to return to the market over the next few years is going to make matters worse.

Kelley Blue Book projects the collective residual value of 2016 hybrid and electric vehicles sold in January and February to be 29.5 percent after 36 months. That is 4.1 percentage points lower than the 36-month residual projection it set for similar vehicles sold a year earlier.

Low gasoline prices played a big role in trimming those values, said Eric Ibara, director of residual values at Kelley Blue Book. In 2012 -- when the average price of gasoline nationwide was $3.60 a gallon, according to AAA's website -- KBB projected that gasoline prices five years out would be in the range of $3.50-$4 a gallon, Ibara said.


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Agent009Agent009 - 2/1/2016 11:14:20 AM
+1 Boost
Quick look for a 2012 Nissan leaf with 25K on the odometer

List price $29,010 - Tax credit $7500 = $21,510
Its a 4 year old car $2877.75 depreciation each year or $239.81/month Average payments on a $21K car - $350/month

Bottom line... even after tax credits. Each month you were spending $110 more than the car is worth on a monthly basis.




poot66poot66 - 2/1/2016 12:33:12 PM
+3 Boost
I think that is great math but for one it only applies to people who will be selling their cars for people who are going to keep it, it won't make any difference what their car is worth to someone else.

Secondly it is short sighted to see these vehicles simply in dollars and cents because they are essential for us to be less reliant on fossil fuels and provide a more sustainable future.


Vette71Vette71 - 2/1/2016 12:38:32 PM
-1 Boost
Even as gas prices rise, which today's WSJ predicts will happen this year, the economics do not compute. Buy a plug in hybrid, as it an all around better deal and and a more usable product.


vdivvdiv - 2/1/2016 4:04:15 PM
+3 Boost
The first gen. Volt is a brilliant and sadly rather greatly unappreciated car. Getting a used one for under $15k is a no-brainer if one wants to drive electric.


poot66poot66 - 2/1/2016 12:38:40 PM
+2 Boost
To me the only real problem with these cars is their looks. If the leaf looked like the Altima or a little Maxima then it would be selling much better.

I do believe that Nissan, Chevy, Toyota ext makes these cars look less attractive initially so as to not impact the sales on their big movers.

The only one that looks nice is the Tesla and they have nothing to lose so they want it to look attractive.

Even BMW made their two that I've seen one being a ugly looking Scion Kia hybrid and the other with a price tag so as to not cannibalize their other products.


TheSteveTheSteve - 2/1/2016 2:29:06 PM
0 Boost
Actually, according to the numbers I've been seeing (possibly outdated or incomplete), EVs have been relatively flat for about 3 years, even though oil and gasoline prices began their downward slide in the summer of 2014, about 18 months ago. But Hybrid sales are in the toilet, and they have correlated with pump prices.

When I was ordering a new vehicle just about a year ago, I considered a specific hybrid (Audi Q5), and I decided against it for the following reasons:
1) Not TRULY as fuel efficient as the manufacturer claimed
2) My calculations predicted it would take me >12 years of my driving until I broke even on the purchase price premium based on savings at the pump
3) Unknown additional cost and date of needing to replace batteries

I got a Q5 3.0 turbo-diesel, which gets better fuel economy, better performance, and at a lower purchase price than the Q5 Hybrid. 7 months after I ordered, and 3 months after I took delivery, Dieselgate broke, which sucks big time, and a few months later, my engine was implicated :-( I'll let you know about the fuel economy after the recall, as I've kept records since Day-1.

Yes, I know that there are hybrids that have *much* better fuel economy than the Audi Q5, hybrids that were designed right (as compared to the Audi Q5 Hybrid, which is arguably one of the worst examples of hybrid design), but I didn't look for the car that got me the best fuel economy first. I looked for vehicles that first satisfied my primary mission and preferences, and fuel economy was just one of my considerations (not the primary one). My calculations show I expect to break even on the diesel engine premium after <6 years of driving (total). After that, it'll make me an annual profit in lower fuel prices (compared to premium unleaded) and better fuel economy, without needing to worry about eventually replacing expensive batteries.

Your mileage may vary.


vdivvdiv - 2/1/2016 4:08:22 PM
+1 Boost
The extraneous emissions on your engine should be fixable with software, what that would do to the performance probably sux.


MDarringerMDarringer - 2/1/2016 7:02:01 PM
+1 Boost
I'm against the tax bribe. Even with the tax bribe, EVs are dubious at best.


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