By The NUMBERS: A CLOSER Look At Tesla And Its All-New Sensation, The Model 3 — Why Things AREN'T Adding Up

By The NUMBERS: A CLOSER Look At Tesla And Its All-New Sensation, The Model 3 — Why Things AREN'T Adding Up
Last night was a BIG night for Tesla and its founder, Elon Musk. The company introduced the all-new Model 3 to the world.

While it was patently obvious that these vehicles are not even remotely ready for production, the crowd — mostly full of Tesla loyalists — whooped it up and ate up every single word that Musk had to say. It was as though the soul of Steve Jobs had been resurrected from the dead and put into a new body.

Agent 001 who has a particularly strong barometer on management, and their respective impact, firmly believes that Musk is the only living executive that has the same sort of effect on consumers. And, I hate to admit it, I agree.

But while there's plenty of folks mindlessly planting down $1,000, someone was really thinking about Tesla with a skeptical bend. And, he's raising some very valid points.

 

...With the Model 3 still fitting five people and a healthy amount of luggage, as well as maintaining essentially the Model S design language with a Model X nose, what's the argument for buying a Model S anymore? Clearly if you need the car before 2017, maybe you would consider one.

But otherwise?...

...The other dimension here is this: There is quite a leap of faith necessary to assume Tesla could make money selling a car of this caliber for $35,000, especially if one further assumes that any other automaker couldn't simply do the same for that price or less. Tesla
lost $18,331 per car sold last quarter alone...


So, what are we missing here? Clearly, things are not adding up. So much so the writer who penned the piece — I encourage you to give it a read via the "Read Article" link below — is considering entering a short position on the stock in the next 72 hours.

Are things as rosy as they may seem? What say you, Spies?


Read Article

TomMTomM - 4/1/2016 6:49:50 PM
+2 Boost
I actually mentioned this in another Tesla post - The number do not add up. And now you mention that there is little reason to buy a model S - makes it even worse. If even only some of the people who put down a deposit are model s owners trading down - that is lost money for Tesla - in addition to the loss of over $18000 per car already. IF sales drop off for 2 years (It will be at least that long for the Model 3 to get to market) - those deposits might disappear in a bankruptcy filing.

And it also assume that OTHER manufacturers cannot produce competition - which will not be the case. I still believe that there is a finite group of people who will consider an EV - and a number of them will want it from a bigger company.


Agent00RAgent00R - 4/1/2016 6:58:29 PM
0 Boost
There's no question that Tesla builds amazing products. The problem is just that they tend to be damaged goods, at least that's what reports have relayed to us.

Meanwhile we haven't heard about any significant reliability issues w/ the Toyota Prius Plug-In models or Nissan Leaf or Chevrolet Volt.

This is a gnarly beast, that's for sure and the next 12-24 months are going to be VERY interesting to watch.


cidflekkencidflekken - 4/1/2016 6:56:23 PM
+2 Boost
All cogent points. I'd love to hear Musk's response to the article. Definitely does not add up. Investors should seriously be concerned. Especially if the Model 3 ends up a bust (not delivering on time, end-pricing much higher than quoted starting price, etc), then Tesla's stock would certainly be hit hard.


Agent00RAgent00R - 4/1/2016 6:59:13 PM
+1 Boost
Well, that's the thing. Tesla has NEVER delivered on time.

So, yeah. There should be some warranted concern.


runninglogan1runninglogan1 - 4/1/2016 8:51:18 PM
+4 Boost
Anton Wahlman is a famed Tesla hater. The man trashes the company at every opportunity. It's like Musk made fun of his mom or something. His arguments are laughable. The Mercedes C-Class holds five just like the S-Class. It has most of the high end features. It's less than half the price! Why buy an S-Class? Moronic.


HenryNHenryN - 4/1/2016 9:40:02 PM
+3 Boost
Anton W is a known Tesla shorts so naturally negative comments are on his agenda. Hope you guys are smart enough to discern that


SanJoseDriverSanJoseDriver - 4/1/2016 9:37:56 PM
+3 Boost
Man, you guys just can't stop crapping on Tesla despite all of their accomplishments. They just had a historic moment that has never been achieved by any other car manufacturer in the past and may never happen again in the future.

Their gross margin is over 20% on the Model S, they only lose money on a unit basis because they are investing billions in the gigafactory and upgrading their manufacturing capabilities for the Model 3 and Y.

The Model S has the highest consumer reports customer rating of any car ever--it's time to wake up and realize that Tesla is a legitimate auto manufacturer and is here to stay.


Agent00RAgent00R - 4/2/2016 1:11:15 PM
+1 Boost
We've recognized Tesla's successes; however, you cannot ignore the other stuff going on behind the curtain.


MBKingMBKing - 4/1/2016 9:50:04 PM
+1 Boost
BMW makes a 3 series a 5 series and a 7 series. They all fit five people. All of them can drive 300+ miles per tank. They all can fit a set of golf clubs and they have infotainment systems.

328i = $38,350
528i = $50,200
740i = $81,300

I don't know about you guys...but things are not adding up. I'm heading to my local BMW dealership right now to go pick up my new 328i.




Vette71Vette71 - 4/1/2016 11:04:56 PM
+2 Boost
If you start putting all the goodies that the 740 has into the 328 watch the price skyrocket. Hence it is likely the $35000 Model 3 is a stripper. The hooks are in it for all that the Model S has, but to actually get it will cost you.


SanJoseDriverSanJoseDriver - 4/2/2016 5:58:19 PM
+1 Boost
I just had to take my Model S in for service (meaning they came to my work to pick up the car and drop off a free loaner car). Unfortunately they ran out of Tesla loaner cars because people keep buying them faster than they get them in, they gave me a brand new BMW 328i. I like the size and nibleness of the BMW, but it honestly seems like crap compared to the Model S.

Obviously they are in different classes, but the Model 3 will have the same performance as the car I drive now in a more convenient size. There is no lag with the Tesla, the weight is in all the right places, and the interior is way more streamlined. It is like comparing an iPhone to a Blackberry. If the BMW 3-series is considered the benchmark for its class, I think the Model 3 is going to justify all the hype it is getting right now.


MBKingMBKing - 4/2/2016 10:49:59 PM
+1 Boost
I agree that at $35,000 you are going to get a base stripped down version. Heck a properly pec'd 328i is $45k itself, but by no means is someone who is looking at a 5 series or 7 series also contemplating if they should just pick up a 328i because it can fit 5 people and drive for similar distance on a tank of gas. The article makes no sense with their argument and the model 3 will not cannibalize the Model S sales for the same reasons.

I love SeekingAlpha.com, but Anton Wahlman is off the highway on this one (pun intended).


Vette71Vette71 - 4/1/2016 11:00:32 PM
+1 Boost
Tesla is using high tech start up financial strategy to a grand scale. The VCs who back him understand it well. Development for product and later manufacturing "tooling" costs dominate expenses and cash usage early on. The usual strategy is to hold these dollars constant or even cut them as delivery (financially recognizable sales) start. Thus as unit volume grows each unit carries less of this "constant" expense and theoretically profit per unit grows. Therefore the articles assumption that loss per unit will be a constant is not realistic. If the development expenses as a company are constant and a incremental new model that sells for half the price is now added, more units are covering that expense. The model 3 unit volume is significantly higher than the S overall it leverages the profitably. Musk's reiteration of the 3 part strategy is exactly what this is all about.




Vette71Vette71 - 4/1/2016 11:13:03 PM
+2 Boost
The article's comments that others will build up their own charging station networks is likely off the mark. Watch Musk build up Tesla's network quickly and then offer it (for a fee) to all the other manufacturers as "The Industry Standard". It is a financial deal where he will make it a no-brainer for the others to join him versus bearing the costs for developing another system. Of course he will make a lot of money.


HenryNHenryN - 4/3/2016 3:23:30 AM
+1 Boost
Someone in the tech world executed this strategy on CMDA technology in the late 90's, and the world followed. Similar strategy is developing in the emerging IoT. It seems Tesla is doing a similar thing with their charging network and will forge a global standard for EV charging. When this happens, it is the end for ICE cars.


MrEEMrEE - 4/2/2016 10:31:44 AM
+2 Boost
Classic end of S curve behavior, only a few will make the next jump and 10 years from now the players will look very different. Musk has a handle on reinventing more than just the vehicle design but many here cannot see this. Much like when Apple entered the mobile phone market.

Japanese have shown you can build top quality and low cost in the US, so I won't rule out Tesla. Going all electric and electronics reduces costs. The only nut to crack is the battery cost and Musk seems to have a plan for that. The Model 3 should arrive just in time for the return of high oil.


Vette71Vette71 - 4/2/2016 11:01:01 AM
+1 Boost
The key to the S curve is getting across the chasm when you run out of early adopters and before the masses start to buy the products. That is where many start-ups run out of money and investor patience. Musk will likely raise a stash on the excitement of the Model 3 to get him through the chasm which could last until 2019. Lots of potential pitfalls along the way however. Still a huge gamble.

Interesting that the plant he bought was the joint Toyota/GM plant which was know for quality and efficiency. Robots galore, now a new paint line and a workforce that understands quality methodology.

Battery could be a glitch. Note he backed off the home solar back up plan as he cannot compete with fossil fuel back up generators. Plus as a solar home owner I am not keen on having lots of questionably unstable lithium batteries in my basement!


Agent00RAgent00R - 4/2/2016 1:14:12 PM
+1 Boost
@Vette71

Great points, thank you for your insights!


MrEEMrEE - 4/2/2016 3:15:59 PM
+2 Boost
I was referring to the product life-cycle s-curve where established companies continue to invest ever more in an old paradigm or product at its end. Crossing the Chasm for new technology is what Tesla is attempting with the Model 3, between the early adopters and the early majority.

Another big cost difference from model S to 3 is steel construction.


mplsmpls - 4/2/2016 4:08:49 PM
0 Boost
Tesla messed up when it partnered with toyota for the RAV4 EV, toyota had to recall them to fix Tesla components.



mplsmpls - 4/2/2016 4:30:10 PM
0 Boost
Musk is very sensitve to criticism, sometimes too sensitive. If he is so sure of his product then be more relaxed...In 2 to 3 years time, i think he will notot just have the maistrea, manufacturers to compete with but also the Chinese. At this moment, losing $18K per Model S sold cannot last forever, also the amunt of so called warranty claims must be costig them a fair bit.


mplsmpls - 4/2/2016 4:38:33 PM
-1 Boost
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk#Subsidies

two faced person...


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