Is This Analyst Insane? Estimates 30-80k Chevrolet BOLT Sales In Year 1

Is This Analyst Insane? Estimates 30-80k Chevrolet BOLT Sales In Year 1

So, the latest all-new electric vehicle that's making a helluva stink is the all-new Tesla Model 3. Clearly, interest remains strong as it has generated well into the six figures of hand raisers. Now the questions remains whether Tesla can actally produce that many vehicles. 

 

While we know that the all-new General Motors, Chevrolet Bolt will be hitting the market sooner, one thing that remains a question is whether or not the product will be adored or abandoned. 

 

You see, it may be adored because consumers looking for their electric vehicle fix may turn to the Bolt after realizing their Model 3 may take years to be delivered. But, it may be abandoned because in-market consumers that really know what they want may just hold out for what is perceived as a better all-around product. 

 

The Bolt is expected to hit showrooms in late 2016 with widespread availability in early 2017. The Model 3 has been slated for a late  2017 release; however, given that Tesla is never on time we think 2018 is more realistic. Compound the factthat only so many units can be built, we think 2019 is when more than 50 percent of the Model 3 handraisers will receive their products.

 

So, IS this analyst insane or what?

 

...Which is perhaps why one analyst is predicting that the 2017 Chevrolet Bolt EV, General Motor’s first long-distance, affordable, five-seat electric car, will sell between 30,000 and 80,000 units in its first year of production. That’s the kind of volume which would move Chevrolet’s electric car efforts from being a niche-market also ran on GM’s monthly sales charts to being a meaningful, tangible proportion of GM’s overall output...


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MDarringerMDarringer - 5/11/2016 7:53:34 PM
-2 Boost
The Bolt holds all the advantages. It is attractive, good target price, and built by a company knows how to make cars.

Meanwhile over at the Emperor's New Clothes Motors--aka TESLA--they have a Model 3 that (1) does not have a finalized design (so I guess to hell with prototypes anytime soon), (2) they can in no way build at their supposed target colume, and (3) from a company with shoddy quality glitches that abound.


vdivvdiv - 5/12/2016 2:51:02 AM
+1 Boost
Can GM/LG Chem make and sell that many, especially world-wide? Yes, they can. Will they? Well...

"We'll see", said the Zen master.


TomMTomM - 5/12/2016 6:43:57 AM
+4 Boost
The question remains - how many people want an Electric Vehicle. To date - we have no indication how many are willing to pony up the full amount to buy one with gas prices staying low. I have no doubt that the Bolt will savage the Leaf. It is also possible that some companies will offer incentives to their employees to buy an EV in some areas like California. However - the biggest problem with an EV remains that need to have the ability to charge the car - something people living in an apartment have limited ability to do. AND that works against the EV in Urban areas - where they would be most likely to be sold to begin with. THe other problem is - non-compatible charging devices.

Still - I would expect the Bolt to sell well in California - and that alone could bring sales to 30-40,000.


Vette71Vette71 - 5/12/2016 10:05:32 AM
+2 Boost
Agree with your comments that the charging issues are and will continue to hold back pure EVs until they get it down to 10 minutes or less at a convenient station. GM has it covered for someone with those objections. Read some reviews of the 2017 Volt which will do 53 miles all electric and then change over to a 40+mpg ICE mode for a total range of 400+ miles, before filling up with regular gas to continue on your way. It was so seamless one reviewer didn't know it had happened 50 miles later. The Volt also comes with leather and other goodies so it can be a road trip vehicle.






trboaccordtrboaccord - 5/12/2016 9:02:10 AM
+1 Boost
Attractive and built by a company who knows how to make good cars? MDarringer lay off the crack pipe this is GM we are talking about not Toyota..


TomMTomM - 5/12/2016 3:59:11 PM
+2 Boost
For YEARS - General Motors produced some of the best quality car parts in the world - for example - Delco Air Conditoner Compressors and Delco Alternators were used on Mercedes products - and Rolls Royce used the THM 400 automatic transmission. BMW also used later GM Transmissions too. GM Hydramatic continues to produce some of the best shifting transmissions out there (THE new 8 speed in the Corvette puts the ZF8HP to shame).

In addition - General Motors was known for its style as well - With Harley Earle and Bill Mitchel being considered among the best car stylists ever.

ANd YES - Toyota doesn't know style from a turtle - YOU are correct about that one too!


ilovecar2015ilovecar2015 - 5/12/2016 11:48:04 AM
+1 Boost
Between 30K to 80K in sales?! Ha, I can bench press between 150lbs to 250lbs. Can the range gets any wider? This "analyst" clearly hedge his forecast.


nguyenvuminhnguyenvuminh - 5/12/2016 1:15:32 PM
+3 Boost
Samsung and LG offer similarly performing smart phones and they sell a boat load of those, but there are still a large number of people buying iPhone because of Apple's design and brand image (at a price premium). I would guess Tesla has a fair number of customers that will buy their product, regardless of how other manufacturers provide similar performing cars like the Bolt. At the end of the day, Bolt will have their particular buyers and Tesla 3 will have theirs, and we're better off for it given the alternatives available to us. I don't think one will put the other out of business.


HenryNHenryN - 5/12/2016 3:11:54 PM
+2 Boost
The TM3 is a mid-size/compact sedan (around 184in x 74in) whereas the Bolt is a subcompact hatch. The Bolt will certainly take sales away from the Leaf and similar EVs. The TM3 will take some sales from other EVs, but its major customer base comes from ICE drivers.

Multiple surveys have been done on the Tesla Motors Forum to show such broad background of current and potential Tesla drivers. It's one of the most civilized forum I've seen on the internet - in fact, trash talking against other EVs / ICE cars is highly discouraged.


MrEEMrEE - 5/12/2016 7:56:50 PM
0 Boost
Who is going to pay $30k+ for what looks like a Spark and likely similar quality. The market has spoke, the Model3 has the style and performance to be a hit. Bolt DOA.


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