NHTSA Opens Probe Over Tesla Model X Safety After Latest Autopilot Crash

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One of the problems extremely creative people like Musk often exhibit is the inability to focus laser like on THE MAIN GOAL. In Tesla's case the goal of creating a mainstream vehicle powered by clean electricity coupled by supporting infrastructure is the clear goal and a huge task. Note that the "tangents" (falcon doors, autopilot, buying Solar City, etc. etc.) are causing all kinds of distractions and starting to harm the basic intent of the business. All Tesla had to do is offer the same automatic cruise control, braking, lane departure, etc. that everyone else has, to even the playing field in that area. AutoPilot is a bridge too far which will now consume Tesla's management resources as they address that issue.

Watch for stockholder suits or SEC action over not publicizing the death as soon as they knew about it. A public company has to file an announcement about a "material event" effecting investors immediately. Had they not made such a big deal about AutoPilot they might have been able not to file, but in their case it could be considered material. It is made worse by the fact they were out raising funds and doing financial deals in the same time frame, so there could be non-disclosure issues as well.

I bet that the "stop sale" / "stop use" edict is coming in a few days from NHTSA which will be the nail in Tesla's coffin.

Inventory will pile up, working capital will dry up, the whole thing will shrivel.

Remember Fisker Karma? They had their problems but the final nail in the coffin was when Hurricane Sandy wiped out their inventory (most of it went up in a lithium-ion fireball) at the port in Newark, NJ and they didn't have the working capital to build any more.

Hopefully this significant safety issue is taken care of before there are any more deaths, but most importantly before there are ANY PEDESTRIAN or OTHER VEHICLE OCCUPANT deaths or injuries. This is a truly scary situation.

Add one to your doomsday scenarios: a 7.0 earthquake under Hayward Fault that will pull the whole Tesla factory to the SF bay. That will also destroy Silicon Valley and maybe world civilization - without Apple, Google, Facebook... how do we survive? Just don't blame Musk on this one.

But blaming Musk for everything is my hobby. What will I do instead?

Article: "...Tesla's Autopilot function, a semi-autonomous technology that helps drivers steer and stay in lanes, was at play..."


In MY mind, Tesla's "semi-autonomous driving system" is sort of like getting a semi-effective condom: Unless it's extremely reliable, it's useless.

Before categorically condemning Tesla's AP as defective/ineffective and declaring the end of the company because of it, I'd like to point out a few things:
- AP is an option ($2500 up front or $3000 post-delivery).
- AP is enabled/disabled by the user. According to some sources (TMC forum), its capability is fully disclosed in user's manual
- AP is highly effective if used properly - from Motor Trend reviews and real-world users comments.
- AP has AI built-in. It has so far accumulated over 130 million miles of road use and keeps growing. How the data is mined and applied to future use is up to Tesla. With recent push in expanding the software team, there is no doubt they will make tremendous progress on this front (Apple, Google, FB are all-in on AI)
- Tesla AP partner Mobileye is also working with BMW (together with another tech giant Intel) on their new AP.
- Apple and Google are also working with AP technology. They may have different solutions but all share the same common goal of making personal transportation more efficient and safer.

I understand recent incidents involving AP are fuel to the fire for anti-Tesla/anti-AP camp, but what progress does not have unintended consequences ? Even the "harmless" smart phones contribute to more auto deaths due to distracted driving than AP will ever do.

For the inquiring minds, I recommend the article from Motor Trend about AP tech and its use by various car companies.

http://www.motortrend.com/news/testing-semi-autonomous-cars-tesla-cadillac-hyundai-mercedes/