Tesla Model Y - Rumors or not?

Considering that the market is already flooded with compact SUVs/CUVs, it's inevitable Telsa would have one in their fleet - but I don't think it's the time now for it. They need to get the Model 3 out pronto before getting distracted by another media frenzy.

That said, a compact model Y without Falcon rear doors or self-presenting front doors and with normal-sized windshield will be an instant success. It will compete well with the Macan, X3, Q5S, GLC, F-Pace, RX, ...

So far, the Model 3 is a rumor. Last I heard, Musk was selling deposits for a grand, promising deliveries by the end of 2017, and hadn't even finalized its design, let alone started tooling up for production or getting suppliers on-side.

I'm just waiting and watching to see how this all plays out.

I am quoting someone's words: "Just keep in mind that the people with negative opinions are always more vocal than those with positive ones"

Truth is truth. The only people who find the truth negative are those who cannot handle the truth in the first place.

@MD: exactly the point. The people supporting the truth would let it speak for itself whereas those opposed to it will repeatedly try to distort it with half truths and misleading facts.

The truth in context here is the Model 3. TheSteve insists that it is a rumor because it is not ready for production. This is at best half-truth bacause the 3 has always been in the company's plan for many years and it requires many pieces of that plan to fall together for it to happen.

HenryN wrote "...TheSteve insists that it is a rumor because it is not ready for production..."

***NO!*** I say SO FAR, the Model 3 is a rumor because last time I heard:

(1) The Model 3 product was still on the drawing board and...

(2) Because it's till being designed, tooling (a part of preparing for for the manufacturing process) cannot be started, and...

(3) Musk is claiming orders in the 300,000+ range, and deliveries will start at the end of 2017 (less than 18 month away), and...

(4) Tesla suppliers (and industry analysts) have openly stated that do not believe Telsa is capable of ramping up production anywhere nearly as quickly as Musk claims they well, so suppliers are NOT ramping up their ability to supply Musk's aggressive sales story, and...

(5) Tesla has a long and well-established history of missing delivery dates, and...

(6) Tesla has a long and well-established history of falling short of their own sales projections.

Personally, I believe:
(a) Musk will be lucky to make a few Model 3 test mules for PR purposes by the end of 2017, but I have a hard time envisioning he'll be in full Model 3 production by then
(b) He won't be able to ramp up production anywhere close to the rate he asserts.
(c) A substantial number of those alleged 300,000+ Model 3 orders will vaporize rather than being converted to Tesla sales.

Those are *my* belief, stated her, clearly and unambiguously, for the record, and for all to see. Please feel free to make YOUR predictions, then let's bookmark this page, and when we see Model 3 success or failure, we can compare it to what each of us believed.

For the sake of over 300,000 alleged Model 3 deposit holders, I sincerely hope I am completely off base with this! I hope Tesla has wild, unprecedented success, and doesn't collapse like a house of cards.

@TheSteve: you said a lot but you keep repeating the same distorted facts and exaggerations.
My point is simple: the Model 3 is a real product and has been a part of the company's plan for nearly a decade. It may not meet the stated release goal but it is NOT a rumor or vaporware as some try to label it as such. What I know is that hundreds of people already experienced riding the cars in the flesh. These demo cars may not be exact copies of the production car but it takes a wild imagination to dismiss the Model 3 as rumor. As for production readiness, I don't have the illusion that everyone will get his or her Model 3 by end of 2017, and neither the company made such claim. However I am rooting for Tesla to deliver meaningful quantity by end of next year - mine included.

What you and the anti-Tesla crowd on this board have been saying - some with unhonorable intention - is that the company is scheming the investors/customers and tax payers and deserve to fail. If you side with these stake holders, would it be more beneficial for Tesla to succeed than fail like GM and Chrysler did not long ago ? What do you have to gain from its failure ?

While the company is indeed exposed to some undue media attention, I would rather entrust my money in Tesla with its plan than in companies such as GM and VAG where executives trade accountability for deniability.

HenryN: consider looking in the mirror when you accuse others of something, such as "distorted facts and exaggerations". Here are some examples:
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HenryN: "...the Model 3 is a real product..."

Fact: AT THIS TIME, the Model 3 exists ONLY on the drawing board, in renderings, and mockups.

Steve's commentary: I believe it'll likely get into production, but not in the timeframe or producing the sales numbers stated by Musk.
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HenryN: "...What you and the anti-Tesla crowd on this board have been saying... [Tesla] ...is scheming the investors/customers and tax payers and deserve to fail..."

Fact: NOT true! I have been saying things like (direct quote from this web page) "For the sake of over 300,000 alleged Model 3 deposit holders, I sincerely hope I am completely off base with this! I hope Tesla has wild, unprecedented success, and doesn't collapse like a house of cards." Somehow, you "see" the exact opposite of what I write, and attribute it to me.


While you keep pointing at me and accuse me of posting "distorted facts and exaggerations", it is clear you are guilty of precisely this (see examples above)! You are entitled to your opinion, and I understand you don't agree with me, but you don't get to choose the facts or rewrite history (such as what I actually say in posts) to suit your opinion.

TheSteve's Fact: AT THIS TIME, the Model 3 exists ONLY on the drawing board, in renderings, and mockups.

When there are more than a thousand people working on this project, it's very real to me. You may not be able to access it or see it in person does not mean that it's not there. If you need to touch it to accept its existence, then the world around you is very small.

And consider your favorite phrase: "For the sake of over 300,000 alleged Model 3 deposit holders, I sincerely hope I am completely off base with this! I hope Tesla has wild, unprecedented success, and doesn't collapse like a house of cards." - That's very noble of you. But it is not difficult to see though it that you don't mean well.

A simple fact that over 300K people putting down the deposits on the Model 3, and you have to insert "alleged" to your sentence to plant a seed of doubt. Are you implying Tesla is making up the numbers ?

How else would I characterize you when you "sincerely hope ... unprecedented success" then immediately counter with "doesn't collapse like a house of cards" ? doesn't sound too sincere to me. It's one thing to stay neutral but taking both sides ?


As for "you and the anti-Tesla crowd on this board have been saying... " there are plenty of this stuff flying around on this board - there is no need for me to quote here. While I have no problem with strong criticism or opposition, what I find disturbing is that people use bits and pieces of facts and conveniently insert their own to serve their theses. I hope this blog does not become an automotive version of Seeking Alpha.

HenryN wrote: "...When there are more than a thousand people working on this project, it's very real to me..."

I understand. When the product shows up in full production, and is selling in showrooms (or direct to customers, Tesla-style), that's when it becomes real to *ME*. As an example, the NSX II took almost a decade from announcement to showroom, and during that time, the "idea" of what it would be changed a number of times. In *MY* mind, it finally became real the day someone could actually buy one. Some folks would argue "it" was real (though "it" changed a number of times) the day Honda announced the new NSX. Just a different perspective. To each their own.
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HenryN wrote "...But it is not difficult to see [through] it that you don't mean well..."

Your bias against me allows you to "see" only evil and malice in everything I write. It's not possible for you to perceive me or my writing any other way, or to give me the benefit of the doubt. That's why you're so certain your opinion is right, and cannot possibly be incomplete, inaccurate, or even wrong.
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HenryN wrote: "...A simple fact that over 300K people putting down the deposits on the Model 3, and you have to insert "alleged" to your sentence to plant a seed of doubt. Are you implying Tesla is making up the numbers ?..."

I assert (1) the number of orders has not been independently verified, therefore we have no choice but to take Tesla's word for it, (2) Musk has made all sorts of claims that have turned out to be either not entirely true or outright inaccurate, (3) the actual number of orders is likely changing day-to-day; for example a press report alleged that 12,000 Model 3 orders were cancelled within weeks of being placed. So in summary, I'm saying Tesla *alleges* they have 300,000+ Model 3 orders, and you can either take that as gospel truth, or with a grain of salt. It's your choice. Also, who knows how many Model 3 orders will get converted into actual sales, and when? Some people believe 100% of them, for sure, by the end of 2017. Other people believe differently. To each their own, right?

Let's give the Tesla story some time and see how it pans out. I believe the house of cards will collapse, but I realize I could be completely wrong. It's just what I *believe*. I am NOT asserting "this will happen -- I am an Oracle and I can see the future."