Kids born today will never need a driver's license

When I was younger, the prediction was (paraphrased) "With the way robotics are going, everyone will have a 20-hour workweek and enjoy a higher standard of living; finding new ways to entertain ourselves during all our extra free time will become the social problem of the day."

Ah... yup :-/

I'm still waiting for everyone to be flying around in jetpacks and bubble-topped flying cars, like they predicted back in the 1960s (and please, nobody point me at that joke Terrafugia, which has proven to be as practical and popular as an amphicar).

I've formed the opinion that humans are crap at predicting the future. Just like predicting the weather, the further out you get, the wilder the divergence from reality.

17 years from now - the primary provider of personal travel will STILL be the car/suv/cuv - and the title of this article is NONSENSE. In fact - there will still be a lot of cars new TODAY on the road then. And while there may be autonomous features on more cars - we must still remember that there will STILL be a need for entry level cars everywhere - especially in the third world - where they simply will be unable to afford cars with all of these computers in them.

And in fact - the ICE will still be the main motivator of most cars in 17 years as well. IF you want to forecast when there will be no need for a license - look for the day when MOST cars have complete autonomous ability - and add about 10-15 years to that.

I mostly agree with the article and strongly disagree with TomM. 15 years from now nobody will "NEED" a driver's license, although I'm sure many will still choose to get one anyone. I also don't think most kids born today will own a car, and those at the low end of the market will be mostly likely to bypass owning a car as well. Personal cars will likely be a prestige luxury item and comfort, not performance, will be the top selling point.

In 15 years, I can imagine you can use an app to order a car to come pick you up in 1-2 minutes from just about anywhere and the cost will be $3-4 (or less) to drop you off within a 20 mile radius. You won't have to pay insurance, parking, speeding tickets, license & registration, maintenance, or fuel fees. It will be far less expensive and more convenient to call a car on demand as needed than to own a car.

I like owning a car personally, but this is very likely where the future is headed. You are also seriously mistaken if you think anyone will be selling many ICE cars in 15 years. A 200 mile BEV drivetrain will become less expensive than ICE well within 10 years, while lasting longer, providing better performance, and lower costs to fuel up. When that happens, no car manufacturer will be producing ICE vehicles.

And SanJoseDriver - I seriously disagree with you. 16 years is NOT a long time. If you want to say kids will not "need" a drivers license - they do not "need"one NOW (Unless they want to get somewhere) - but there are still many areas of the country that are rural - with long distances traveled to anywhere - and there will be LOTS of Kids born today who will need to get to a food store - and school - and their jobs - and will not have cars with the ability to completely drive themselves without ANY intervention (You would need a license if you have to take the wheel at any time). Maybe 30 years from now I agree with you - and Maybe in Major Urban centers where public transportation exists - sooner (ant the cities may BAN cars anyway) - but there will still be Tens of Millions of cars and trucks on the road that will require Human Drivers 16 years from now - and the drivers of those vehicles will need Drivers licenses - AND there will still be plenty of Semi-autonomous cars out there as well that will require a driver to be available to take over in certain instances. I may no be alive 16 years from now - but I will bet there will still be lots of ICE vehicles being produced (Especially Trucks).

Now - the question is - when EVERY car/truck/vehicle on the road is autonomous - will you still be allowed a car that requires a driver? Cities in Europe are already placing future bans into effect. And when all cars are controlled by outside forces - at what point does the Automotive industry - which is the majority of jobs in this country now - cease to be an issue. When the speed, acceleration, and spacing between cars is controlled by the government (THe cars will be obeying all the rules - or be required to) - there will be no need for SPORTS cars - car that can accelerate faster than others - cars that have better handling - etc. No need to buy a bigger engine - all cars performance will be the same. Only Luxury appointments will separate cars - and Matt will not be able to drive his TVRs - unless he retrofits them with the autonomous stuff.

However - without the need to Truck Drivers - and Taxi Drivers - and delivery Drivers - the question is - what industry is going to provide jobs to those people displaced. (And those are just the tip of the iceberg - add in less mechanics - the major part of the Oil and Gas industries - and most every other industry who will go under when all these people lose their jobs)

We can agree to disagree on the timeline but you bring up a lot of good and provocative points on what will happen to a lot of jobs. Truck drivers, Taxi/Uber drivers, car dealerships, and a lot of supporting jobs will definitely be gone 30 years from now (and I would argue 10-15 years). I don't see an obvious answer, but hopefully new industries will form in a similar way that the computer industry killed the role of typists.

Also, even in rural areas autonomous cars will dominate 16 years from now. Anyone with a newer car will be able to "rent out" their car when not in use. This isn't just for Teslas, all other manufacturers will have to follow suit. It will dramatically reduce the cost of ownership, so there should always be a high supply of autonomous cars to rent as needed in most of the country.

As for electrification, trucks have one of the best use cases for going electric since they heavily rely on torque. Right now there are 0 mass-market trucks on the road, but that will change in 5 years. Again, within 10 years it will be cheaper to build a truck as an EV than with an ICE engine. Who is going to pay more for an inferior truck that will cost more to maintain and be less reliable? The novelty will definitely wear off in another 5 years, so 15 years is a safe bet to say goodbye to ICE trucks as well.