Audi Claims EVs Will Become A Must Have - How Long Will That Take?

Tesla better quickly improve their interior build quality and their ability to reliably deliver vehicles in a timely fashion, and reduce their costs....there is going to be a whole lot of competition in the EV space real soon!

I think Tesla addressed these concerns with recent hires: (1) Hochholdinger from Audi to head production/manufacturing and (2) Bell from Volvo to lead interior engineering. Recent factory expansions and production preps indicate Tesla is getting ready for the release of Model 3 and the inevitable Model Y. The Model S and X may also get major interior upgrade soon afterward.

The EV space is getting competitive from the European makes (not so with US and Japanese companies), and the offerings are getting more interesting. Tesla is well positioned to keep the lead.

It's hard to predict "how long it will take" because it's hard to predict what innovations will happen, when they'll appear, what they'll cost, and what possible drawbacks they'll have.

But assuming that I could find a vehicle that's equivalent to my current (and well loved) Audi Q5 diesel SUV, it's an EV, has 1,200 mile range, fully recharges from empty in 5 hours (or less), costs 1/3 less to buy, has next to zero maintenance costs (except for consumables like brake pads and disks, wiper fluid, shock absorbers, etc.), and recharging stations are plentiful... then wouldn't it be a no-brainer? When that happens, we'll have an automotive revolution on our hands!

In 20 years, EVs will be a must-have, but currently the benefits do not outweigh the costs.

For you, maybe. For hundreds of thousands of people apparently they do.

"hundreds of thousands of people they do..." what?

Where are these hundreds of thousands of EVs of which you allude to?

The Tesla Model 3? Oh, you are delusional.

No, EVs already on the road today.

@vdiv but not "hundreds of thousands".

EVs are already a must have if you can afford it and your job has charging stations.

For normal people(myself included): price needs to come down and charging stations & inductive charging needs to be readily available and a range close to 400 miles.

Four month old eGolf with 700 miles on the clock for $17k. You can strike the price out. Most charging is done at home, strike that too. 400 miles? You drive that much every day?

Genuine 300+ miles of full electric range with A/C running would seriously garner my attention for purchase.

Range is only an issue because EVs turn to paper weights when the battery is depleted. If recharging were as fast as refilling a gas tank, then range would be less anxiety inducing. Engineers are focusing too much on range and not enough on creating batteries and systems that address the charging time issue.

Good point! However with most charging done at home while sleeping it is not an issue on a daily basis, only when taking trips.

Essentially, EVs will remain a niche until (1) they can be recharged as fast as filling a tank and (2) incur no cost premium over an ICE vehicle. At this point, there simply is no economic payoff for going to an EV..

The second point is already a fact. Considering the TCO EVs have been cheaper to run for years now.

@vdiv My second point stands because there is literally not one EV car on the market that can get a full charge in less than 5 minutes.

That's your first point and it's largely moot as people don't sit around waiting for their car to charge, it does overnight while they sleep, during the day while they work, or on the road while they take a break after hours of driving.

@vdiv You clearly aren't the smartest person. I drive long distances on a regular basis.

I go to Newport Beach about once a week and Tucumcari New Mexico probably once every 6-8 weeks.

I can fill up the Rams or the Continental in the matter of minutes and continue on my trip. With an EV, I'd have to stop for HOURS to do a PROPER charge.

Don't tell me about fast charging because all fast charging does is destroy the batteries over time.

If I were to drive to Newport Beach and back--as I do frequently--I'd be stranded down south waiting for the EV to charge, but in an ICE vehicle, I'd be home.

I simply refuse to be stranded in a parking lot using my car as an office when I could be in my office.

I clearly am not since I'm arguing with you :p

The price of batteries is coming down quickly, and we will see further drops as production capacity increases in demand with the vehicle market. Tesla is at a huge premium right now because they are a "it" brand in some circles and there is some novelty around them. The way things are progressing with batteries, in 5 years the price of batteries will be where it needs to be for the luxury market, and in 10 years for the mainstream market. In 20 years I would think EVs will be dominant, as many countries will move taxation schemes to favor EVs and ban ICE vehicles from urban areas.

The key number for making EVs affordable to the masses (still at a premium but within reach when accounting for lower operating costs) is $100/KWH. Tesla's goal is to be there when they open their gigafactory (somewhat unrealistic), and GM says they will be there in 2022 (more realistic).

Used EVs are really cheap to buy and all EVs are much cheaper to operate and maintain.

Only a complete idiot would own an EV. Lease, perhaps, but owning is moronic.

@vdiv Doesn't the fact that used EVs are cheap indicate that demand is low? People don't really want them,are worried about having to replace an expensive battery, etc.? Your arguments for them primarily hold where the EV is a second vehicle used for commuting by someone who has a garage and/or charger at work. Beyond that situation, for the majority of people, ICE still has the advantage as many people on the site have said repeatedly.

@Vette71 You nailed it. EVs suffer from the "PC" effect i.e. what you buy now will be obsolete in a few years.

EVs are also "unproven" technology relative to conventional cars and people rightfully should wonder if they have what it takes to be as solid as a Camry. The answer to that will come a decade from now at the earliest.

Finally, the range anxiety people feel causes them to plug in their EVs to keep them fully charged. Like your cell phone or your laptop, keeping the battery "topped off" creates battery "memory" and reduces the capacity of the battery to be fully used. It's actually better for the EV to run low before the recharging cycle. Indeed some EV owners have learned this lesson the hard way.

@Vette71 it indicates people's ignorance as demonstrated here that because of a perceived short range EVs are useless.

@Matt Fast charging does not shorten battery life, heat does, so thermally managed batteries do just fine. Li-ion batteries do not have a memory effect and EVs are much better at managing the battery on a cell level than laptops by balancing, not overcharging, and not depleting them. EVs have been around as long as internal combustion cars, the current generation using Li-ion and inverter-driven asynchronous 3-phase motors is now over a decade old.