Tesla Assures Investors That Model 3 Is On Track

The plan is still 500,000 cars in 2018, nothing really changed in the sales forecasts or the production ramp. Last year Elon said it was unlikely that the Model 3 would start production in July, implied it would be later--looks like production may actually happen in July. We'll know soon.

But do all Teslas still come with the 200mpg carburetor like he promised?

I don't remember that promise. Think the original plan was for the S to be a hybrid but that was scrapped when they saw how much range they could get out of it along with supercharging.

In prior years, Musk assured investors that:
- They'd meet self-imposed sales targets. They didn't.
- They'd ramp up production at a specifically high self-imposed rate. They didn't.
- They would not have to tap capital markets to produce the Model 3. They did.

Remember, we used to laugh at Steve Jobs' "Reality Distortion Field" in Cupertino and how those silly Apple fanboiz kept keepin' the faith and believin'.

But all that really matters is the stock price, right? And that's doing very nicely. Play on.

Yup and Apple is now the largest company in the world with a quarter trillion (yes trillion) dollars in cash. They could buy Tesla and still have $200 billion left over. We would have to be delusional to call Apple a failure at this point (no, I don't own any Apple products).

And Google punked them with Chrome and the Chromebook OS.

SanJoseDriver: If you measure a company's "greatness" by its profit, then I agree with you: Apple is the greatest company on the planet.

Let me know if you feel they create the best *products* on the planet. That's the "Reality Distortion Field" of which I speak.

I think Apple's Macbook Pros are the best laptops you can get today. However, I would rather get a top-of-the-line Chromebook every year at 1/4th the cost (and do), especially since everything I do is in the cloud. The iPhone is a great product, but I prefer the Android ecosystem, especially the seamless integration with Google apps. I admire Apple's products and design, but can't justify the ROI versus other products.

I'm sure there will be a good alternative to Tesla someday as well (an Android if you will), but right now they don't have any real competition for the types of cars they produce. I was in a Bolt earlier today, and it is not even on the same planet as a Model 3, compromises and all. Nobody in their right mind is going to opt for the Bolt over a 3 without a significant discount. Eventually (and hopefully) BMW, Audi, MB, and Porsche will provide some meaningful alternatives, but I wouldn't expect them until 2020 in a best case scenario.

Did you see the $130k Karma? What a joke. So far the Mission E and Lucid Air are the only two non-Tesla EVs I'm actually excited about.

Tesla is soon going to learn one of the most elemental business lessons the hard way...

It is very, very tricky (and can take years!) for a brand to make an effective move down-market.

Sure many premium automakers have done that (over 25 years!). I think the first one was the Mercedes 190E but that was just a small Mercedes, not a down-market one. The worst culprit was the Cadillac Cimarron. Moving 'down-market' is most often done through trial and error over a period of years. BMW's 1-series, Audi's A3, certain cheap Lexus are all pretty successful - but they are certainly 'premium' inside and out.

This down-market Model 3 comes across looking ... well... 'down-market'.

I think we are going to end up with a Tesla Cimarron. I am not optimistic.

5K by the end of the year, 10K at some point in 2018.

They make 2k Model S/X each week right now, the Model 3 only needs 1/5th as many man hours to put together. I might have to eat my words if it doesn't happen, but I think chances are good they can hit 5K/week in 2017.