Is Tesla Screwed Once The Premium Brands Begin Building REAL Electric Cars?

The landscape will certainly change when:

1) Other premium automakers create feasible EVs that present compelling alternatives to a Tesla Model S and X

2) Non-premium automakers create feasible EVs that present compelling alternatives to the Model 3 (schedules to start shipping in July 2017).

I believe we're heading in that direction, and when we make significant gains along that road, Tesla will either up their game or become a has-been. I suspect Tesla will continue to evolve and hype.

Whether Tesla ever becomes profitable is anyone's guess.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, once the German 3 (4 if you include Porsche) start building their own electric vehicles, Tesla's business model will have to change if the company is to survive.

Take Audi as an example. The company sold 1.87 million vehicles globally in 2016. In 2016, Tesla sold 76,230 vehicles globally. Tesla is outsold by a 24:1 margin just by Audi alone. Mercedes-Benz and BMW sold even more than Audi.

Most importantly, Audi (like Porsche) is part of Volkswagen Auto Group and can purchase the components in much greater volume than Tesla can, driving down cost. The same holds true for Mercedes-Benz (Daimler) and BMW (independent but still much larger sales volume versus Tesla). The German 3 are able to command prices greater than Tesla for their flagship vehicles (Audi R8/S8, Mercedes-Benz S-Class/SL/S-Coupe AMG models and BMW M6, i8 etc.)

So we have three companies that outsell Tesla by at least 24:1 globally. These three companies purchase the parts for their cars at a much lower cost due to the discount provided by such huge volume. The prices of their flagship vehicles are all greater than Tesla's as well.

This leads us to higher-priced vehicles, sold in much higher volumes globally and at higher margins.

Throw in century-old expertise and individual brand hallmarks for luxury and innovation, S-Class brand power and BMW's once dynamic prowess and you get the perfect storm for Tesla.

Tesla will have to invest tens of billions to match the dealer network of the German 3 around the world.

I agree.

A daring move would have been to make the next A7 the Tesla competitor and make the A6 more of a coupesedan.

If the entire industry goes the way of EV and autonomous vehicles, then Tesla may do what Apple did in the cell phone industry.
Apple came along and revolutionized an industry with the iPhone and left prior dominant cell phone providers like Nokia, Motorola, and Blackberry in the dust. Really only one true viable competitor kept up (Samsung). So, Tesla may take over an entire industry and maybe only one company out of the current Top 4 will remain competitive. I haven't been paying much attention to the Top 4's EV and autonomous ventures, but I believe Mercedes might have a leg up right now.

Considering NOT ONE of these carmakers have announced anything close to an actual specific street price, I doubt it. Tesla's prices are plain for all to see. Not one peep from any premium carmaker about an actual street price.

How can you say that when the Model 3's price list with options isn't out yet. Two months till production starts, and delivery soon after. You can't price one out and order it. The others are two years away. Why put their prices out there?

cidflekken gets it. GermanNt with his "Throw in century-old expertise" comment most assuredly does not.

of course tesla will be in trouble. Tesla barely has any real competition as their electric car is superior to the others. The bmw i8 is MUCH better looking, but also too expensive and small/ not practical enough to be a real competitor . wait till the i5 comes out along with other cars from other brands, Tesla will get dethroned eventually.

So hire a few Italian designers and fix the problem. I've been to the IAA in Frankfurt and the interiors the Italians crank out on even their entry-level cars are great. It's a lot less of a problem to have than sourcing a high volume of batteries. I wonder who sells those?

Tesla sells more $100k+ sedans in the US than Mercedes and Bmw combined. Their customers are the most satisfied in the industry. I don't think they have much to worry about.

Where did you get those statistics?
How did you separate out the Tesla S cars that did not sell above $100,000 - as well as the Mercedes and BMW. None of the companies actually provice those figures - unless of course you got them from Daffy Trump.

Wow, surprised to see some positive sentiments in the comments about Tesla for once on Spies.

Competition will only benefit consumers and lead to better cars from all manufacturers and lower prices. So far, everything the premium brands are putting out is vaporware.

The Porsche Mission E is the only thing that resembles a true Model S competitor, and it looks amazing. I hope it will still be compelling in 2020 when it actually comes out. Audi has talked a big game but have released absolutely nothing. I still expect them to come out swinging in the early 20s. BMW's i series is basically an experiment and Mercedes just has a Tesla-powered B Class.

Tesla's priority is going to move from the Model S and X to the Model 3 and Y before any of the established companies have viable products out. If Tesla can hold onto a cost advantage in batteries and out-pace them on innovation, they could become the Apple of the car world. They also have the added benefit of selling solar and grid storage, which I expect some of the other manufacturers will do eventually as well.

The lack of all-electric models available from Audi, BMW or Mercedes Benz at the current moment is not a problem. Audi has indicated that in 2018 it will launch its first all-electric SUV with a range of 300 miles on a full charge and 80% charge capable in just 30 minutes. The lack of any price information is obviously not an issue either. Of course when the German 3 launch their all-electric vehicles they will announce the price.

The exclusive focus on the United States market is also shortsighted. Take Mercedes-Benz as a perfect example. Two years ago when Mercedes-Benz sales in China were collapsing, it fell far behind BMW and even Audi in global sales. Fast forward to today, and Mercedes-Benz's sales in China are growing a clip of 30% year-over-year. Where does Mercedes-Benz stand globally? The answer is in first place by a huge margin.

I can't believe there is a troll with enough time on their hands to setup 10 AS accounts to rate down all the Tesla comments =)

Anyway, I'm looking forward to the Audi SUV but I'm concerned it will be $150-160k. I still won't be excited about it until I see the final production version. It probably won't be faster than the Model X, but if the price is right and they have a decent interior, it could help expand the market for EVs.

Tesla is not going anywhere. Their end game is being the leader worldwide in battery technology. In a couple years time they will be a generation ahead of anyone else. They will have the densest batteries and the lowest cost per kWh. They will sell batteries to other OEMs, which is a much higher margin business than automaking. They will keep a high end lineup of vehicles (i.e. Model x,s, and roadster) to showcase their tech.

They have a joint manufacturing partnership with Panasonic. Tesla owns the battery chemistry and Panasonic is not allowed to sell the jointly developed batteries to any other customers. Similar deal for solar panels and cells. I also would not be surprised if Tesla buys Panasonic in 3-5 years to continue vertical integration.

Someone needs a dose of self esteem since they spent the good part of the weekend boosting/de-boosting certain posts on this thread.