Tesla To Have A Near Monopoly On The EV Market Because Industry Was Asleep At The Wheel

When we speak of Tesla being a "near monopoly", we must put it within the context of the impact this has.

In 2016, Tesla sold 83,922 vehicles. By comparison, the tiny, highly specialized, only-for-the-affluent Porsche sold 234,497 (2015). BMW, a comparatively small manufacturer, sold 1,905,234 worldwide (2015). By comparison, GM sold 9,965,238 vehicles in 2016.

Tesla is a tiny niche within a niche, with a tiny impact on overall vehicles sales. The EV landscape is forever evolving, and who knows if Tesla will continue to lead the niche, or whether they'll become the Blackberry of EVs -- once the world's uncontested runaway leader in their sector... then an also-ran.

Don't forget that Porsche said by 2023, half of their vehicles sold be electric. So, using the figure above, half of 234,497 (Porsche vehicles sold in 2015) is still more than the 83,922 vehicles sold by Tesla in 2016. Whoever wrote that article is clearly clueless.

@F1_Driver: I have no problem supporting serious effort to build EVs from any automaker, especially Porsche since I'm an owner and really appreciate Porsche cars. But you are getting way ahead of yourself when comparing Porsche theoretical number 6-7 years from now to Tesla today's number. The ratio 87K over zero is still infinitely large. And Tesla sales number is changing by the days with the imminent release of the Model 3.

Until automakers have something real to offer, all talks are still trash talks. I do applaud their commitment to EVs - it's their future since EU will enforce new CO2 emission standards by 2020 (95g/km or ~57mpg for passenger cars, phasing in 2020 with 95% compliance, 100% in 2021) and without EVs, no one can make it by selling only ICE cars - but I would have to wait for something more substantial from them to even make a comparison.

No doubt by 2020 the market, at least for Europe, will be crowded with EVs. Competition will be stiff but Tesla by having a solid global strategy will be far in front of the pack. It may not be a "monopoly" but dominance is a sure thing.

The real losers in all this: the traditional automakers who are still in bed with the oil industry and the political lobbyists.

typo - 83K not 87K

They should hit over 200K cars this year, 500K in 2018, 1M in 2020. The near monopoly would really come in the early 2020s when there are enough gigafactories to produce millions of cars, while traditional manufacturers are still building their 1st gen electric vehicles.

Speaking of which, Tesla quietly upgraded the heck out of their entry and mid-level S/X lines yesterday. The slowest Model S now has a 0-60 of 4.3 seconds, and that is for a $70k model before factoring in rebates. Even the base Model X is now 0-60 in 4.9 seconds. Which other car company does stuff like that on random mid-year updates?

Steve, you forgot that "on the EV market" follows right after "near monopoly". How much time did you spend looking up the numbers you posted ?

But then, most geniuses on this board predicted or declared that Tesla would go bankrupt in either 2017 or 2018 so that means shit if they have a "near monopoly" in anything right ? There are so many "Tesla Killers" out there that if they survive these predictions they would get killed anyway by these giant monsters whoever they are imagined to be.

Tesla's monopoly is partially due to how small the EV market is and the fact that Obama paid all their bills to make it appear to be a viable company.

Inherent in declaring a monopoly is the assumption that there is something worth monopolizing. The EV market simply isn't big enough to make that a #1 goal, thus nothing to monopolize.

Sorry - but Tesla does not have a near monopoly of sales

In 2016 - there were 351,861 Ev sold in China - and Just over 159,000 sold in the USA. (This does not include Europe of the rest of Asia) Tesla sold just over 83,000 total vehicles total in that year less than 20% of the total of those two countries alone. For years - in the USA - General Motors sold over 40% of all cars - often over 50%. ANd yet Chrysler and FORD competed and survived.

THe problem with Tesla is that we are seeing sales ONLY at the beginning of the cycle. Eventually - there will have to be MILLIONS of sales to justify the investment made into EVs by many manufacturers. WE still have NO indication that Tesla would even be the largest seller in that market. (Or will survive to be a part of it)

You know that's not gonna happen.