QOTD: How Many Of Those Reservation Holders For A Model 3 Are Going To Bolt When The Federal Rebate Runs Out?

BobM. You don't seem to follow the logic of your own post. If it is nutty for Musk to plan a trip to Mars (with friends or without) because there is no life there, it is just as nutty to spend 100's of billions of dollars of tax payer money to go back to the moon and onto Mars. They are both desolate rocks that will not support life. You can't have it both ways and have your point hold any water. Spewing right-wing hate and making personal attacks in your post just dumbs it down to a level that makes it lose all of its relevancy. Good Job!

How many will bolt when they have to wait 2-4 years for delivery?

I think Vice President Pence of the Trump Administration just announced today that NASA would indeed return to the moon and they would put American boots on Mars. Moonbats are apparently driving the bus...

Tesla has already announced it expects that average transaction to be $42,000 for a Model 3. AND when you add in the loss of the tax rebate - that is an extra $14,500 over the projected "$35,000. Then, You add in that a number of the people who put a deposit down did so as an investment to be able to resell at a profit - which makes little sense since you can get used Model s cars in that price range - so that they will drop out - and you get back to how many "green" people are out there - and how will they sell these to people who really do not care.

Oh my dear!
So what is so bad with those 42.000.- when the bolt is 37.500 without navigation, without fatscharging (TAHT is an option) amd will run out of tx credits too (thanks to volt sales),
Willsou buy an i3 instead?
Really?

They'll definitely see a drop in interest, all EV manufacturers will, but I also think Tesla has created very good brand recognition with the Model S, something similar to Apple in my opinion, so there will still be a lot of people willing to fork out over $50k just to have a Tesla and if it follows the Model S in capability will be a successful product. For a lot of people who have converted or want to convert to EVs a car from Tesla at under $60k is irresistible.

Remember - for the average person in the USA - they cannot afford to buy a new car - any car - much less a $40,000 one. AND for those who can - many have the wherewithal to ignore the price of gas. Others have the "ability" to pay - but have used it for other obligations such as home and family (which was my problem initially). Add in - that a large percentage of these who can afford are OLDER americans - who prefer a large roomy luxurious car - and would prefer an Avalon or a LaCrosse to a Model 3 noting that the Chevy Bolt has more room inside than a Model S - and the Model 3 interior room has not been disclosed - which is just as important as the sparse interior. THEN - add in those who do not have their own property - where they can set up a charging system - and FACTOR IN the cost of a higher speed charging system (Virtually all houses in the USA do not have 3-phase 220V service - some do not even have single phase if they have gas service).

AS far as life on Mars - we already have life on earth in areas near volcanic tubes in the deep ocean where life that is completely different from our life exists. Given enough time to evolve - and it is billions of years - there is a greater likelihood that a life form different from ours could have eeked out a position on mars - under the surface as well as on it. In fact - something may exist that cannot be perceived by human senses as well. If there is one sure thing in the Universe - it is that we have only a fraction of the knowledge of everything that exists. And the Universe is shown to be bigger - almost every year.

@Tom The people I'm mostly taking into account are the hundreds of thousands of Americans who have already put down a deposit on a Model 3. I don't know where the number stands right now, 400,000 or 500,000, but even if they only turn half of those deposits into sales, 200,000 sales in 3 years, they'll still be at the same level or close compared to compact luxury sedans like the 3-series and C-Class, to do that in 3 years would be quite an achievement. So we'll have to see if they can pull it off or whether the sales are sustainable with infrastructure and increasing competition.

@ TomM 'And the Universe is shown to be bigger - almost every year.' But the question is... Is it anywhere near as big as Elon's ego??

Tesla don't care. All of those deposits have been earning interest in Tesla's bank accounts.

Besides, no one that was able to secure a deposit on an early production model will buy the car if only to flip it, with a profit, to those that are further down on the list or did not give Tesla a deposit.

Key point: in many cases, the federal rebate is not the motivating factor to buy a Model 3. Like the latest "fruit" phone, many people want the Model 3 to say they own a Tesla. For some, the fact that they will be able to charge their Model 3 at work, and the relatively low maintenance costs for Tesla's in general, will still save them money.

I am sure many were counting on the full tax credit, but most getting the 50% will still purchase. Like any high demand release will have to stepup to pay for optioned up models. Likely by time credit drops, base models will be available, so net cost is down from first deliveries.

All Teslas delivered by June 30, 2018 will for sure receive the full $7,500 rebate. There is a chance it might even be September 30, 2018.

Q3 and Q4 2018 cars will still have a $3,750 rebate while Q1 and Q2 2019 will have a $1,875 rebate.

Most if not all US early reservation holders should be fulfilled by the middle of next year, so unless you are at the tail end of the line you are going to get your full rebate.

Net margin also includes capex for production that is far from being built, we'll see what the real margins are next year.

Q2 margin is not announced until August 2nd, so not sure where the 22% number is coming from. The gross margin for Q1 was 24.77%.