Tale Of The Tape: Telsa Vs BMW Vs. Mercedes, But Are These The REAL Competitiors To The Model 3?

I would say no. Buyers are different and have different motivations. Key is the need for a car right now. I can't go out and get a Model 3 this weekend. Maybe I can a year or two from now. For all those with a lease expiring in the next 6 months or that want to trade in a 5-7 year old car, the Model 3 is not part of the discussion.

I'd say wait for the second generation Nissan Leaf due out September 6. You get most of the features of the Model 3 but for less $$$$. On top of that you get Nissan reliability.

Oh oh, Tesla Model 3 is in trouble. The 2018 Nissan Leaf has been spied shooting for a commercial in Europe recently. And without its bulky camouflage, quite frankly it's sexy. If the rumors are true, e.g. two battery options, a 40 and 60 kWh with range up 250 miles for less $$$$ than a Model 3, Tesla better be watching its back. Throw in the fact that Nissan have the capacity to make as many Leafs as its demand require and you don't have to wait a couple of years to have your Model 3 and it's gameover for Tesla.

http://www.burlappcar.com/

http://www.leftlanenews.com/next-gen-nissan-leaf-appears-in-photo-shoot-97204.html

https://electrek.co/2017/07/31/next-gen-nissan-leaf-design-revealed/

F1, your definition of sexy differs from mine...

atc98092, anything is sexy compared to the duck-billed hunchback BEV called the Model 3.

I wasn't referring to the Model 3, although I too am not convinced about the front end. I'm simply saying the Leaf doesn't rise to sexy in my book either.

I would not say these 3 models are true competitors. The Tesla Model 3 is an all-electric car whereas the other two run on gasoline. A buyer of the Model 3 is not looking to buy a gasoline-powered car and buyers of the 3-Series and C-Class are not looking for an all-electric car.

Right now, I don't think the Model 3 has a true competitor. However, I expect that to soon change within the next 2-3 years, if not earlier.

@GermanNut wrote: "A buyer of the Model 3 is not looking to buy a gasoline-powered car and buyers of the 3-Series and C-Class are not looking for an all-electric car."

I think you only got the first half right. Plenty of online "surveys" indicate a large chunk of model 3 reservations come from German car drivers. Whether they are accurate or will turn into actual purchases remain to be seen. By end of Q1 2018 when Model 3 sales figure is significant, we should know what that percentage is for the US market.

Talk to anyone who has seen market research. American car buyers do a LOT of cross shopping on price across wildly different classes of vehicles. Thus if I want something flashy, I might cross shop and Mercedes E and a Ford Raptor.

The buying public thinks that people think only inside a segment because the segment is all they are interested and need to convince themselves they are the most insightful about that segment.

Once production is underway and if the car is as marvelous as early reports suggest, then yes.

People shopping for 3 Series and C Class will definitely take a look at the 3. Why wouldn't they?

The Model 3 is not a premium interior car(nor exterior in Black) - it has no leather available - and was designed as an entry level car. The BMW 3 series - on the other hand - is a premium car - and has higher level of content as well.

The model 3 was clearly designed to compete with entry level compact and smaller cars - remembering that its interior is similar in size to the Bolt. It does not really compete with premium mid-size cars and since it is ALSO designed to sell in very high numbers - it also is supposed to be without exclusivity. No Panache! -

I still do not believe there will be sufficient sales of EVs of all types until the infrastructure is there to charge these things for people who do not have the ability to install a charging station where they live (Apartments - houses without garages - in town with street parking etc.) AND - it will also require a major change in the price of oil to the upside as well. ANd if it does sell well - it would likely cause the price of oil to go down.

The comparison chart above shows the Model 3 is a superior car, beating both the C300 and 320i in every metrics that counts - power/torque, acceleration, dimensions including wheelbase and track width, interior roominess, storage space, fuel economy, warranty, autopilot, ... . The 320i has a small advantage in MSRP and curb weight but is severely behind in other metrics (the 330i is a better comparison but it would still fall short).

Many people are still complaining about the interior, but guess what, a lot more people like it so it's best to treat it as a personal preference. The Model 3 will not win over every entrenched ICE car buyer, but now for those who don't want an ICE car there is an attractive and relatively affordable alternative in the Model 3.

For those who still want a 3-series or a C-class, BMW and MB will thank you since they need loyal customers like you to save them.

Sorry Henry - but there are LOTS of lesser cars that can be equipped to meet some levels of performance with true premium cars. The market is covered with them - from the GTI - and other "GT" versions. That does not make those cars true competitors with real premium cars or even superior to them. And "in every metric that counts" is your characterization - but a real Premium Car Buyer would not agree. They have to impress their passengers - and a car that looks like it could take lessons from Hyundai for interiors will not suffice. And the Model 3 is just another ME TOO car - that is simply NOT a premium car competitor. The fact that it is actually MORE expensive than the premium car makes it still another stretch. The fact that it is and will not be generally available for a couple of years is another. And the fact that by then - the tax incentives will have run out for Tesla also makes the Model 3 even less competitive. And while will trumpet the Expensive availability for autonomous features - remember that people who buy high end small sports sedans - do so to drive them - not for them to be a replacement for Train cars.

Face it- the MODEL 3 was designed by Tesla to be a Mass Market car - to compete at the ENTRY LEVEL with The Civic and the Cruze - and the Corolla - and your claims cannot change that FACT. THe interior comment as a "Personal Preference" of YOURS" - only means that you are willing to settle for LESS than what a true Premium Experience should be - and that is true of those who buy a high end Ford Focus - which is another Model 3 competitor. ANd that fact is - until the infrastructure exists to bring charging to the public who cannot do that with their own property =- at an affordable price (Remember - the chargers from TEsla are not Free for the Model 3) - and until the charge times can be reduced to Minutes - not hours - an ICE car has a lot of advantages for those who are do not have their own garage - or actually travel long distances. I regularly still travel between my homes in NJ and FLORIDA - straight through - something that I could NOT do while allowing 10 minutes for re-fueling on an electric vehicle.

The real test of the EV market will be when the true premium manufacturers actually produce EVS that will not only compete with Tesla - but will have a major advantage - a large multiple dealer in states network that competes for both sales and service (WHere Tesla maintains a monopoly and claims it will not "discount" prices). While Tesla THINKS it will have production of 500,000 Model 3s per year by then - I do not believe that there will be DEMAND for EVs at that level that soon. Demand is already ebbing for Hybrids and EVs in the USA.In addition - the market has already shown that cars no longer sell at those levels to begin with.

AS far as saving the premium brands - IT is Tesla that will need saving. THey bet the farm on the Model 3 - and it has to make a profit - so it is priced above the market - rem

TomM: you just described YOUR definition of premium car - so as I said, let's chalk it up as a personal preference. You don't have to like it.

That said, your statement "the MODEL 3 was designed by Tesla to be a Mass Market car - to compete at the ENTRY LEVEL with The Civic and the Cruze - and the Corolla" just makes you sound ever so absurd. I know you are anxious to see changes and feel yourself obsolete.

From day one, the Model 3 was designed to appeal to the mass - not to make it look or feel like one of the cars you mention. "Entry Level" means different things for different companies. The C-class used to be Mercedes's entry-level car until MB pushed it up to make room for even more mediocre A-class. Same for BMW, Audi, ... with their new found "entry levels". All in the name of increasing market share - there is no problem with that.

It has been obvious for at least 2 years that the Model 3's primary targets would be the "3-series" types. Anyone acting surprised with the car is either oblivious of Tesla's plan or is simply trying to spin it.

Sorry Henry- I did not "describe" a premium car - the Marketplace has determined that BMW and Mercedes ARE premium cars - And as I noted - the Model 3 was indeed designed as an Entry Level EV - it is in the Compact car range - has a little less interior space than a Chevy Bolt - and as YOU agree - it was designed for the "Masses" -except - its price point does not agree with that. The "Masses" cannot afford a $50,000 car. And the BMW and MERCEDES do not target the "Masses" with their cars - they are more exclusive to higher income people. And it has been obvious for more than that last three years - that TESLA was betting the farm on an entry level EV that would sell to the MASSES - not a premium product in any case - and the result proves that they targeted lower than the premium product as well.

Obviously you are disappointing that the Model 3 is really a competitor for the Corolla and Civic - and cannot compete with their interiors - and it cannot compete on price. I glad we agree that YOUR attempt to compare the Model 3 to premium sports cars is PURE SPIN - because it simply is not in that class.

I don't doubt that buyers cross-shop heavily but how much cross-shopping is done between all-electric and gasoline-powered vehicles?

I don't have data on this, but I would bet it is much lower than overall cross-shopping. The issues of all-electric vehicle ownership (charging and vehicle range) are fundamentally different than gasoline-powered vehicle ownership (gas prices and to a lesser extent diesel vs. gasoline)

EV buyers are trendy, look-at-me-saving-the-earth types.

Tesla's true day of reckoning will be when Audi and Mercedes-Benz offer their own lineup of all-electric vehicles within the next 1-3 years. The German brands will bring with them global sales volume that is more than 23x of what Tesla sells in one year. They will have a robust dealership network across the world, notably in China where the thirst for luxury autos is soaring. Furthermore, with Audi's economies of scale from being a part of Vollkswagen Auto Group, the brand will be able to source electric components for a fraction of the cost that Tesla can since Porsche, Bentley etc. will eventually join the all-electric vehicle party meaning VAG will buy components in huge volumes.

First mover advantage can only help a brand to a point until it has to deal with actual economic and financial realities such as competitor's sales volume, dealership scale and cost of production.

Audi already makes less profit than both BMW and MB with its economies of scale while being a subsidiary of VAG instead of being independent so doubt they will have much of an advantage there unfortunately.

The fact is - the Tesla Model 3 was designed to compete at least in size with the current crop of Compact cars - it has less rear legroom than the Civic, Corolla, Elantra, and Cruze. And you can get REAL leather seats in most of those - not just the wonderful elegant smell of Vinyl. The interior of the Model 3 would be laughed out of existence if it were in any of those cars. The Bolt has more interior room than the Model S - and the the 3. General Motors already tried the center console gauges thing in early Saturns - and the Speedo in the middle console was Universally HATED. And remember - the Model 3 is priced well above these cars as well. SO - they try to "talk" the Model 3 a competitor for premium sports sedans - but the interior will be a non-starter for that one too. AND worse - the 3 also sell for more money than some premiums too - and will not longer have the advantage of major tax breaks soon.

THe 3 will have the new Leaf - as well as the Bolt - available below its pricing - where it cannot compete. Tesla cannot afford to price this car below cost - they have to make a profit in the next three years or it is over for them. However - GM and NISSAN have lots of real money makers in their portfolios to sell at high prices and make money even if the EVs do not. And for those who put up their deposit to buy a Model three to make a quick sale at a higher price - that won't happen - the 3 is already too close to the Model S.

For all those who are trying to claim that the Model 3 was originally targeted at the premium sports car class - that is NONSENSE.

Mr. Musk has been projecting annual sales of over 500,000 for a couple of years -something completely incompatible with "premium". THis type of sales are more than the entire Mercedes Lineup in the USA - something that premium sedans would not even want.

TO achieve these types of huge sales - Honda Accord and Toyota Camry type sales - they would need to be a smaller (It is smaller than the Bolt inside and smaller than the Corolla inside as well) - priced substantially lower (It is actually too high to get that type of sales numbers) - and has to appeal to the "Masses" - who are - by definition - not the people who buy premium cars(Even if they aspire to them).

IT now appears that the market for "cars" is ebbing - and the one Tesla SUV is overpriced and has lots of problems - I do not believe Tesla has a chance of approaching 25,000 a month of the Model 3 - even if they could actually make them now. IN the future - when they have more competition than the Leaf and the Bolt - it wont be possible at all. The Model 3 is at best - a marginal product for the task it supposedly has.

Call it what it. Tesla is a niche auto manufacturer that makes niche products. It has neither the capacity nor quality control that are needed of a mainstream auto manufacturer.