Tesla Says It Will Still Net About 455,000 Model 3 Reservations After Cancellations

The latest Tesla Model 3 reservation count pegs the number at 518,000 gross reservations and 455,000 units after cancellations. The latest number was confirmed by Tesla CEO Elon Musk during Wednesday’s questions and answers portion of the company’s 2017 second quarter earnings call.

Musk noted that the net 455,000 Model 3 reservations occurred over the course of the year and includes Model 3 cancellations. Tesla’s mass market sedan has continued to see net gains of roughly 1,800 Model 3 reservations being placed per day since last Friday’s Delivery Event.

Up until the delivery event, rumors of Model 3 reservation counts exceeding 400,000 remained largely unconfirmed by the Silicon Valley-based electric car maker. Today’s announcement of 518,000 gross Model 3 reservations is inline with Musk’s “zero concern” that the company will be able to hit a production rate of 10,000 cars per week by the end of 2018.

MDarringer - 8/3/2017 2:17:15 PM

+11 Boost

The number is Tesla's puffery.

TomM - 8/4/2017 5:21:52 PM

+6 Boost

I agree - even if Tesla were able to produce that number of Model 3s per week - there is NO indication that a car would be able to sustain that volume of sales for any number of years - since cars are not selling well already. Since the sales of Hybrids and PHEV (Pliugins) are tanking already - we cannot be sure the market will support those production levels.

One thing is sure though - TESLA will have to be making a profit by then - a substantial profit. The market is not going to consider another round of monetization . WHile other car makers have ICE vehicles to fall on for Profits - if the market for EVs hits a saturation point that does not support those high production numbers - and I believe it will - then Tesla is Toast.

Vette71 - 8/4/2017 4:54:53 PM

+8 Boost

Latest analyst's reports show concern about Tesla running low on cash late this year. Right in the middle of 6 months of "manufacturing hell" as Elon describes it. If that happens watch for the UAW to ride in to organize those poor workers "in hell". That's not good news for investors.

SanJoseDriver - 8/4/2017 12:42:49 PM

-5 Boost

Do you also believe we never went to the moon? This was the official number reported to all investors and the SEC. If it wasn't correct, people would be going to jail.

Vette71 - 8/4/2017 4:57:58 PM

+6 Boost

Fortune magazine reported it as 63,000 Tesla Model 3 cancellations. Interesting spin.

SanJoseDriver - 8/5/2017 5:06:51 PM

-5 Boost

That is around a 10% churn rate over a 15 month period, that is not bad at all--especially considering many people reserved it without even knowing what it looked like.

TomM - 8/4/2017 5:16:46 PM

+5 Boost

Actually - all it was take the claimed TOTAL from before the Cancellations - and the new claimed total to get the difference - which is NOT so surprising.

There are still several questions -
1- How many of these will be translated into actual deliveries. The original price of the Model 3 is signifcantly different from what cars they are delivering now - and will those people be willing to fork out thousands extra for power seats!

ANd

2- How many of these people expected to get a $7500 tax break - something that will run out long before these cars will be delivered as well. The current Trump Administration is UNLIKELY to continue these past the current limits AND no matter how Tesla fudges production they will be ebbing by the summer of 2018 if his production meets his targets. I suspect that there will be another round of cancellations at that time too.

Vette71 - 8/5/2017 9:32:41 AM

+4 Boost

If they live in California state legislators are considering fully making up for any phaseout of the Fed tax break for EVs (read Tesla) purchased there.

SanJoseDriver - 8/5/2017 5:08:43 PM

-6 Boost

Oh really? Haven't heard anything about that but it would be interesting. Personally I'd rather all the incentives just be dropped, let gas go to $7/gallon like Europe and we'll see which cars people choose.

MDarringer - 8/5/2017 11:19:30 AM

+4 Boost

You do realize that Tesla is saying the have 500K orders--or whatever the number is at any give moment--but there is not one bit of evidence that the quoted number is accurate.

SanJoseDriver - 8/5/2017 5:09:59 PM

-6 Boost

Again, that is not something a public company can just "make up"

MDarringer - 8/5/2017 5:21:11 PM

+4 Boost

Yes it IS something the company can just make up. There is ZERO verification. Elon is notorious for running his mouth. Exaggerating the number of orders of a new vehicle is hardly uncommon. Sergio wildly exaggerated the number of orders for the Chrysler 200. Elon is as reputable as Sergio, so...

SanJoseDriver - 8/7/2017 12:55:40 PM

-6 Boost

Then he would have kept the expectation and 500,000. He said he thought the count was somewhere around 500k, but on the investor meeting said he had to make a correction that there were 455k NET reservations. He would not have bothered making the correction if it was not to provide the accurate count.

I can tell you that is seems like every other person in Silicon Valley has a reservation for this car, so the number does not feel far off at all. When I made my reservation, I was in a line with over 1,000 other people and some of them (like myself) were reserving two cars.