No More Dieselgate: Mercedes Calls On EU To Stop Playing Games And Standardize Emissions Testing

I'm a big fan of specific, measurable objectives, rather than platitudes and specific "sacred cow" technologies. If someone creates a pure gasoline engine that has fewer (and less toxic) emissions than a gasoline/electric hybrid, then I vote for the improved gasoline engine for its lower emissions rather than the hybrid because... you know... hybrids!

Also, if you can convince 200,000 people to switch to a new kind of gasoline engine that causes a reduced group output of 40,000 "units" of pollution (20% reduction), or you can convince 1,000 people people to switch from gasoline to EV and reduce group pollution output by 4,000 "units" (40% for those switchers), then guess who makes a bigger impact to the environment in reducing pollution? The answer is the GROUP that makes a bigger difference, not the few EV buyers because... you know... EVs!

Bottom line: ICE is not going away anytime soon, so it's a good idea to make it a lot cleaner while it's still here. I hope Mazda's Skyactive system delivers, and others like it, including much (***legitimately***) cleaner diesels.

In the real world, not everything is binary or bipolar (except a few individuals here on Autospies). Most are analog, and as such, there are transitions between 0 and 1 (0% to 100%).

EV is on its transition from virtually 0% a few years ago to >50% in the foreseeable future (10-20 years). It's wise not to dismiss it based on its current share and the US view. Rather, look at the global road map for the EV industry and and the renewable energy industry that supports it. Things are happening at accelerating pace around the world with new projects announced on a daily basis, timelines are shortened and goals pushed higher still.

The END of ICE [dominance] is closer than you hope for - and diesel is DEAD.

HenryN wrote "...and diesel is DEAD..." -- Yes, much in the same way that we live in the "Post PC Era." ;-)

HenryN: I just want to add, there is a big difference between how things are (AKA NOW, AKA reality), and how you or others envision they *might* be, some time at some future date. Humans have a long an well-established track record for being crappy at crystal ball gazing.

EV development is everywhere NOW - only if you open your eyes.

Diesel is as good as dead now thanks to Dieselgate and EU tough emission standards for 2021 and beyond. Automakers have no choice but to forge ahead with EV. That's reality for you - and it's NOT *might* be - it IS.

HenryN wrote “…EV development is everywhere NOW - only if you open your eyes…”

You are right. EV development is everywhere! You also miss something huge: When someone claims “We’re sending men to Mars,” there are some things that MUST happen before that, such as:
- extensive research on years-long stays in weightlessness, and…
- knowing how to successfully deal with that, and…
- building rockets that can get you there, and…
- building the launch and support facilities for those rockets

Without those precursors in place, claims of “we’re sending men to Mars” ring hollow. They just aren’t practical dreams.

To relate that to EVs:
- Current electric generating stations are near capacity
- New generating station startup construction is extremely rare
- The current electrical grid is close to capacity
- Nobody is throwing billions at the grid to increase capacity
- Home generation of electricity is prohibitively expensive, and *WELL* short of being enough to charge an EV
- No transition plan to convert masses of ICE owners into EV owners. At best, it’ll be a decades long process, assuming we can solve all of the previous problems

These are just some of the real-world factors standing in the way of massive EV adoption in the USA. There are many, many more factors, but you don’t know these or other factors, nor do you acknowledge their legitimacy, because… you know… EVs!

@TheSteve: humans don't stand up and walk when they are born. They have to learn how to, and need to be given a chance to learn. Then they still have to learn other stuffs such as talk, reason and make their own future.

Same for EV, it is going through a learning phase before becoming mainstream. Nobody says it will happen overnight - but it is happening right around you.

You are listing the obvious obstacles EV is facing and presume that the people involved in EV development don't see them. Many of these obstacles are being addressed both at industry as well as individual level:

- "Nobody is throwing billions at the grid to increase capacity" - Wind and solar energy currently account for over 25% of renewable energy sources in the US. It reached 10% of total energy produced in the US this March and continues to increase.

- "Home generation of electricity is prohibitively expensive, and *WELL* short of being enough to charge an EV" - this depends on the individual situation. A typical home with 2 EVs will require roughly 10KW PV panels, which cost ~20K after tax rebates. The owner can recover the cost after 8 years with financing, less than 7 years if paid in cash. The panels are guaranteed for 20 years so he would get at least 12 years worth of paying virtually nothing for electricity (30 years typical based on current PV tech). One down side, he may have to pay net-metering fees to local utility company which can be a ripoff depending on where he lives.

- "No transition plan to convert masses of ICE owners into EV owners" - that's the source of my frustration with traditional automakers. They face a dilemma of killing the ICE cars if they produce PROPER EVs [emphasis on PROPER], and are intentionally dragging their feet. Fortunately, a handful of smaller companies are taking the initiatives to promote EV - Tesla is rolling out its more aggressive plan with urban supercharging as well as increased interstate coverage; also 350KW charging is being developed by multiple companies and are already available at limited locations in the US and EU.

It will certainly take some time - 10 to 20 years - for EV to dethrone ICE but it will be done. No question about it.

HenryN wrote “…It will certainly take some time - 10 to 20 years - for EV to dethrone ICE…”

I observe that throughout history, people have been terrible at predicting the future, especially when their predictions are decades and centuries out. The reason why they’re so bad, is they take today’s thinking, and they believe it’ll still apply decades in the future.

Here are some examples of predictions made by people much smarter than you:

…1940s: Nuclear energy will create electricity that’s too cheap to meter.

…1940s (50s, 60s, etc.): Yes, nuclear waste is dangerous today, and we’re storing it in temporary facilities. Science will surely come up with a solution in the near future that’ll render nuclear waste safe.

…1968: “2001, A Space Odyssey” – nobody envisioned humans would be exploring distant worlds, farther out, and SOONER… with unmanned robotic vehicles and probes. They only envisioned manned exploration.

…The 1960’s visions of “personal” computers. Consoles the size of desks. Shopping via CCTV (no concept of the Internet, Web pages, JPEGs, GIFs).

…Nobody predicted the iPhone, a device that combined a Web browser (with capabilities similar to a PC’s), an iPod (music player), and a phone. Nobody predicted the arrival of smartphones, or how big mobile telephony/computing would be. Nobody predicted that third-world countries would skip wired phones and move from no-phone to cellular in a single step.

…Sony predicted Blu-ray would wipe out DVDs within a few short years. It hasn’t. Sony failed to predict that streaming would negatively impact all optical media in a big way.

…The 1950’s (and 60’s, and 70’s, etc.) visions of cars of the future. They look like dated jokes. Remember predictions of turbine (jet) engines in cars, and nuclear powered cars (and planes) that would not need refueling for years?

…(just a few years ago) It’s physically impossible to get much more than about 1 terabyte of data into a single 3.5” computer hard disk. Then later: SSDs will always be too expensive, and too low capacity to become mainstream storage devices.

…TV manufacturers predicted 3D TV would be the next big thing. It flopped.

…The Obama administration’s predictions of a million EVs on American roads by 2016. (This is where people start blaming politicians and political parties for this EV shortfall). The shortfall happened in spite of massive government subsidies and rebates to stimulate EV sales. Um, nobody predicted a big fall in world oil and gasoline prices.

My point is that anyone who claims to “know the future”, especially the future decades out, is a fool in my mind. I say to these people: predict this week’s lottery numbers, or become a multi-millionaire in a few short months by accurately predicting the stock market. No need to wait decades to prove you’re right with your decades-out predictions.

Diesels are most certainly on their way out in passenger cars (excluding maybe pickups. The ICE is not dead but hybrids will become much more popular in the near term as batteries get smaller and cheaper. We are st the point now where the costs/packaging of hybrids is on par with that of diesels with added emissions systems.

The solution to the dilemma is not a single one - the claim that EV's will replace most cars is not true. AS we know- it can take 20 years to get the permits to open a new Electric Generation Plant - so we know it will be a long while before we have enough electricity to support greatly increased EV production. It is possible- that by then - the Manufacturers will have HYBRIDS that drive like a regular car - and they would be the answer for RURAL areas.

WE still have no answer for inner cities - where the ability to have charging station is too limited to support large numbers of EVS - Suburbia and a charging station in the garage is where EVS will take a big chunk of sale.

And diesels will continue as long as GAS is heavily taxed making Diesel cars in Europe popular and more economical than gas.