Investor Warns That The Tesla Model 3 Will Decimate BMW 3 Series Sales - Care To Set Him Straight?

Not worthy of comment. Anyone else care to make a non-comment?

Two unrelated market segments.

A real comment is that it would be foolish to not expect it to take a sizable chunk of the small sausage segment of the luxury space*. The Model is owns dominate share in the big luxury market like the chart says. That is a fact. I would be more worried if I was Lexus, Jaguar, Infiniti, Acura, Alfa Romeo etc.. They are all fighting for existence. MB, BMW and Audi should worry too. But and this is a big but, *Tesla has to be able to make and deliver all those Model 3's. The jury is still out on that. Stay tuned.

"Two unrelated market segments."

I don't think that's true. I drive a 3 series. I will certainly look at a Model 3 (if they are actually available). I can't be the only one.

Sorry - I do think it is two unrelated markets
BMW 3 series is ICE - Tesla is an EV

No one currently sells that volume of a single model of car in the Near Luxury segment (THAT interior is going to keep real luxury car buyers away).
The Tesla also has LIMITED distribution even when compared to BMW.
WE still do not have an idea how big the green market is - and while they may sell well in the Suburbs - Infrastructure for charging the cars in cities - and range problems in rural areas means they will not sell that many

THe biggest problem Tesla has though is their advanced sale - taking up most inventory - likely for a while - long enough for other manufacturers to come out with competitive models. Once BMW and MERCEDES enters the space - the Tesla is TOAST

Carlos, you don't think is the issue.

The Model 3 is shipping, vaporware is all the EVs proposed for 2019-2020 that will look nothing like the prototypes. I was disappointed to see Porsche already significantly toned down the Mission E.

The Model 3 is NOT truly shipping. Some have gone on carriers, but production is virtually at a standstill due to poor planning on Musk's part.

Decimate no ... impact definitely. 3 series buyers are looking for status and the next best thing. The Model 3 provides both. Now that the Tesla Super Charger network is expanding into urban areas people will take the chance.

Same market based on selling price and Tesla will have big share. Reason boards of German auto companies have been so worried.

BS

The number of Model 3s ordered is what Elon Musk SAYS were ordered.

Even assuming all those orders are real, that level of sales is not sustainable.

Even if it happens, it will be boom and bust, but the 3 Series will carry on just fine.

Let's not even touch on Tesla's lack of build quality.

It's kinda silly to use hyperbole like that, but based on the global interest in the Model 3 the enthusiasm is not unfounded.

Since the reveal of the Model 3 last year, major automakers especially the German have been scrambling to respond. To date, they still have not shown any significant progress other than bold claims and "concepts". BMW's plan to produce the 3-series in every flavor including pure EV is being laughed off as another engineering compromise just like the current 330e/530e hybrids.

The blueprint for Tesla's success has been available for everyone to see over the last ten years (Master Plans 2006, 2016), yet everyone dismissed it at their own perils. It involves going all-in with not only a properly designed EV loaded with technologies and forward thinking, but also the global infrastructure to support it.

Tesla had been a boutique player with the Model S and X, now with the Model 3 it is no more. With the Tesla brand now synonymous with EV, the next major piece of the Tesla plan is execution. If Tesla can pull it off by reaching 10K/week production rate by end of next year, the game is over for BMW, C-class, A4 and the likes. The German Big 3 might continue to sell their cars in significant numbers but dominance in the segment will be over.

For those who laugh at this analyst - he may be off the chart with his enthusiasm - but he has been right all along. Heck, all TSLA longs have been right all these years with their money. In this money game, the ride has been exhilarating.

Wrong... Until you can get more than a measly 220 miles out of it, it will not do anything. If I only get 220 miles out of something from a tank of gas or full charge, I want to have the option of traveling over 175MPH and have better 0 to 60 times.

@HenryN Tesla's success? Numerous quality glitches? Under-engineered technology (Autokill and the guillotine doors)? The completely botched Model 3 launch? Never making a profit?

Tesla, to this point, has not proven it can produce and sell over 100,000 vehicles per year globally. Tesla's ability to impact sales of other entry level sedans like the BMW 3-Series, Mercedes-Benz C-Class and Audi A4 will depend on its ability to produce the Model 3 in significantly higher quantities than it currently can produce.

Let's just assume Tesla is able to increase volume the way it predicts it can. Now, the volume is a non-issue so it comes down to product. Will buyers coming from a C-Class or A4 like the interior? I'm not quite sure they will.

What about charging infrastructure? How easy is it for people living in expensive cities like NYC, SF or Miami to charge their EVs at their home or office? If it's difficult that will reduce the number of buyers. What about rural areas that don't have the infrastructure? Those people will also not purchase.

This has to do with the Model 3's appeal and ability to be charged easily. For the Model 3 to be a success, it needs both the appeal as a vehicle and also the ease of being charged. Having just one of the two will not be enough.

it is a strange comparison for the Tesla S vs the S-Class, 7 Series, etc. since in size and price it should be compared to sales of the A7, E-Class and 5 Series.
Also, once the subsidies run out so will the customer. Tesla sales in Australia nose-dived after tax incentives stopped.

Apartments and street parking do have a barrier to EV charging, though this group likely is not the group that purchases 35k+ vehicles, at least new. Everyone else can manage in driveway or garage, and benefit for low night electric rates.

I suspect the biggest danger to 3 series is the SUV. Once Tesla adds a 35k SUV, that will second phase to catapult share.

If federal tax credit gets eliminated in tax reform, likely, the late to market Germans will have missed their oppertunity and be a complete fail.

When will Tesla make a profit is the better question.

Too late. I heard that the Genesis G70 is going to destroy the 3-series.

Just like the Jaguar XE and the Alfa Romeo Giulia decimated the 3 Series. LOL

"Wrong... Until you can get more than a measly 220 miles out of it, it will not do anything. If I only get 220 miles out of something from a tank of gas or full charge, I want to have the option of traveling over 175MPH and have better 0 to 60 times."

Vehicle range isn't a major consideration for me since I have a short commute. And I rarely have the opportunity to drive at 175 MPH. Stop projecting your own ridiculous personal considerations onto the market at large. Plenty of sedan buyers in this price range would consider a Tesla.

"Apartments and street parking do have a barrier to EV charging, though this group likely is not the group that purchases 35k+ vehicles, at least new."

Maybe not in Alabama, but in New York City you are incorrect.