Analyst Doesn't Believe In The Power Of Musk, Says Tesla Business Model Won't Be Able To Scale

Yeah, that's not news. Analysts have shaken their heads at Tesla for years. The proof that analysts are right? Tesla continue to function ONLY as a result of investors continuously pumping their money, in endless rivers, into the company. New stock issues, junk bonds... without that constant infusion of cash, the house of cards will collapse.

I'll be very surprised if the Tesla bubble doesn't burst. Bullish investors and fans look at stock price to predict stock price, and they use stock price (and Musk rerotic) as an indicator of viability, relevance, etc.

I'm really curious how the Tesla story plays out. I certainly hope I'm eating crow 10 years from now, and they're a raging success (and NOT in the hands of the Chinese).

Tesla won't go belly up until there is competition in the segment. Right now - Tesla offers only the S and X - the 3 production is spoken for for a year or two. Last month - they only sold 75 Model S cars - and they cannot live with that. BUT - eventually they will go through the backlog of order AND that is when they will need new customers - and it is likely they will have competition for those orders - not only at the low end - but also at the high end.

Now add in the disadvantage of few selling outlets - compared to say Mercedes or BMW - and they will be at a great disadvantage. I still see a limited green market willing to spend on EVS - and while they have it all now - they won't later - and they will also be competing with off lease High end cars of their own too.

TomM wrote "Tesla won't go belly up until there is competition in the segment..."

I believe that all we need for the Tesla House of Cards to collapse, is conditions that shake The Faithful's belief in Tesla -- a substantial stock market reset, another subprime fiasco... anything that makes Tesla Investors/Fans skittish about pouring yet more of their money into Tesla.

Without the investors' regular cash infusions, Elon will have to get super creative about obtaining the operating capital he needs to stay afloat. Maybe shuffling money between his other cash-positive companies (i.e., selling Tesla shares to them in exchange for the much needed cash)?

Although I don't believe that Tesla's demise is "just around the corner," I would not be surprised if their house of cards collapses for reasons other than "the EV competition killed them."

Based on today's information, some people see Tesla as the bona fide EV leader, destined for greatness. Based on today's information, many analysts (and I) see Tesla as a precarious house of cards, dependent on ongoing investor cash influx to stay afloat. That's today. Things might change over the next decade. Blackberry is still technically "alive," although no longer relevant as a cellphone producer, and that fall from glory happened in a span of just a few years following their 2008 peak as bona fide segment leaders.

From the financial press..things are indeed looking increasingly dire for Tesla...

"...Tesla released their quarterly 10-Q filing to the SEC. At first it was odd that neither the Investor Update Letter or the conference call broke out the Model S and X sales by model. The 10-Q also did not shed any light. Now we may know why. The biggest drop is U.S. deliveries was in the flagship Model S where sales are projected to have fallen by over 1,000 units in Q2 from Q1, down from 6,100 to 5,095 units (source: InsideEVs.com). Tesla only seems to appreciate transparency when it illuminates "good things."

Tesla recently announced a $3,000 price reduction on the Model X. No company on this planet lowers prices when demand is rising. They only lower prices when demand is falling, having exhausted all sales at the higher price point. This is exactly what is happening with both the Model S and X. With worldwide auto revenues falling (as you will see below) Tesla must act quickly to boost revenues.

The real shocker was Tesla has slipped 0.9%, 72-month financing into the order pages for both Model S and X on Tesla.com. The big players use this routinely to move slow inventory.

If Tesla is doing so well with sales, why are they now subsidizing financing of new vehicles? We can assume some of the $1.5 billion in bond money now being raised will be spent financing new car sales. This completely erases any doubts that Tesla is now demand constrained."

Wow. You really are an ignorant, racist, Breitbart reading scumbag.

runninglogan1: re “…Wow. You really are an ignorant, racist…”

Although this specific BobM post makes no racist remarks, I hold the opinion that not only is BobM a racist (see example here: www.autospies.com/news/Americans-Owe-More-Than-A-Staggering-1-Trillion-In-Auto-Loans-Average-Length-Is-68-Months-94184/), but that his hateful posts (demonstrated in abundance here and elsewhere in this site) are typical of the extremist Radical Right, such as in the ranks of White Supremacists and other hate groups. And yes, Breitbart (the link BobM sites to support his views) is a well-known extremist, Radical Right site, so I did not miss the connection.

IMPORTANT NOTE: The bigoted extremists in the Radical Right are *NOT* a reflection of Conservative (Republican) political affiliation, nor of a conservative (small “c”) mindset. Although hatemongers and White Supremacists support the Republican political party, this does **NOT** mean that just because someone is a Republican or a conservative, they are hatemongers or White Supremacists. There are hordes of wonderful, intelligent, respectable and admirable Republicans who do not resonate with hate, bigotry, White Supremacy, divisiveness, etc.


BobM: Thank you for once again stepping up, without me asking you, to provide us with another written demonstration of your hatefulness, racism, unchecked rage directed at all who don’t think like you, and for showing us how easily YOU are triggered by diversity. Indeed, your posts exhibit your true colors… and not in a good way, I may add.

^^^
re the voting FOR BobM's bigoted and hateful expression: Evidently BobM and other Tiki Torchers came by to cast their votes, and to make their presence known. Well done, fellas! Well done! :-)

^^^
Up the stairs, first door on the right, one Tiki Torch each.
Next?

By the way, this is the first time I’ve heard the argument (paraphrased) “I’m not a racist {hater | sociopath | etc.}; I just behave like one, to provoke people like you.” If it walks like a duck, quacks like... well, you know how the saying goes :-/


Racism. Bigotry. Hatred -- Always ugly. Enough said for this thread.

*** BobM’s Demand for Proof That He’s a Racist ***

Give BobM enough rope and he’ll hang himself. (Sigh) At BobM’s request that I prove he’s a racist, I present the following account:

(1) At this link (http://www.autospies.com/news/Americans-Owe-More-Than-A-Staggering-1-Trillion-In-Auto-Loans-Average-Length-Is-68-Months-94184/), in BobM’s post of 9/18/2017 1:51:59 PM (as indicated on my screen), he wrote the following (quoted in context): “This what 10+ year of ZERO interest loans to the Banks gets you.... and it all started with the Magic Negro's "Stimulus Package". As well as bailing out the car companies. Another bone-headed mistake.” He later refers to former President Obama by name, making it clear who the “Magic Negro” is.

(2) The term Magical Negro was first used by film director Spike Lee to identify a RACIST STEREOTYPE that appears in Hollywood movies. In this offensive-to-Lee stereotype, a benevolent Black character, often possessing special insight, comes to the aid of the White protagonist. It’s important to note that Lee used this term NOT to deride the Black character, but to identify the racist Hollywood stereotype, of which Lee does not approve.

(3) BobM’s quote and reference to former President Obama, presents in clear terms that BobM blames “the Black man (Obama),” in whole or in part, for the subprime financial crisis. It’s abundantly clear he speaks of Obama in negative terms, unlike the “Magical Negro” racist stereotype in cinema, which depicts the Black man in a positive light. BobM used the “Magical Negro” phrase in a way that does not resemble its original ANTI-RACIST intent. In fact, BobM he the phrase “Magic Negro” in a DEROGATORY way, aimed at a BLACK man. That makes it racist.

(4) BobM attempts to claim “plausible deniability” by referring to the Wiki page for “Magical Negro.” But as you can see by his post, his use of the term is not ANTI-racist, nor does it refer to cinema, nor is it a reference to a Black person in a POSITIVE way, as the Wiki article points out, and as the originator of the term, Spike Lee, intended the term. BobM’s claim of “clean hands” rings conspicuously hollow.

(5) Something that often goes hand-in-hand with racism, is hatred, rage, and attacking and deriding others. Although this does not provide additional proof that BobM is a racist, it does explain why this type of expression is found in many of Bob’s posts! Just read BobM’s literary works – such as those found on this page – and you can just “feel the luuuuuv” (yeah, that’s thinly veiled sarcasm).


Case closed. Rant and rage and insult all you want, Bob. It doesn’t change these facts, and what you make abundantly clear in your posts.

I won’t debate this point any further with you, Bob. If you don’t recognize your own face when someone shows you a mirror, then “oh well.”

Who would have thought Apple (almost bankrupt in the late 80's) would be sitting on a 256B USD cash hoard today? Time will tell.

Doesn't have to scale. Tesla, like it or not, is the hot electric car maker to beat.

Until other manufacturers step-up and create better product that represents a better value, Tesla will be fine.

These same geniuses wrote off Tesla last year, and the years before, while painfully watching the company taking off. Many of them probably even lost money shorting the company, only if they're courageous enough to fess up. If one bought Tesla stock at the beginning of this year, he'll be sitting pretty on 70+ % gain today - or over 80% if bought a year ago. For the faithful few who bought a long time ago, that's a ten-bagger or better.

I'm not here to brag, but I take pleasure in seeing these crystal ball gazers fail miserably with their short sights. I can see the pain in some of the posts above.

It's a good time to be an EV and Tesla fan - the EV momentum is picking up, the Model 3 is the existential threat to many "too large to fail" automakers who still rely on obsolete fossil technology. The rate of EV plan announcements the last few weeks is dizzying - even Mazda who has been touting its SkyActiv (HCCI) technology as the last "holy grail" for ICE now pretty much throws the towel in announcing plan for ALL-ELECTRIC vehicles by 2030. Major German and Japanese players are already on-board, where are the American Big 3 ?

HenryN wrote "...These same geniuses wrote off Tesla last year, and the years before..."

Please provide a single reference to someone saying "Tesla is going bankrupt in 2016 (or the year before)". Perhaps it was one of the people killed in the Bowling Green Massacre?

___

HenryN wrote "...even Mazda who has been touting its SkyActiv (HCCI) technology as the last "holy grail" for ICE..."

Please provide a single reference of Mazda alleging that SkyActiv is a savior or "holy grail". All I've ever seen is their announcing the new engine technology, and stating some of the alleged benefits.

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HenryN wrote "...[Mazda] announcing plan for ALL-ELECTRIC vehicles by 2030..."

Please provide a single reference to Mazda claiming they plan to produce "ALL-ELECTRIC" vehicles by 2030, and not just vehicles that are electrified in some way, like a gas/electric hybrid, which is obviously different from the "all electric" (EV) assertion you make.

___


re "...I'm not here to brag..." -- As far as I can see, it appears you are! Additionally, it appears your post is peppered with "alternative facts" you use support your assertions of how "they" were wrong, and you were right. You'd make Kellyanne Conway proud! :-)

@TheSteve: as someone who always has an opinion on Tesla (among many other things), you should know by now Tesla draws bipolar opinions from anyone who has an opinion and computer access. As for the "pro" analysts, there has always been bull vs. bear opinions - do you really want me to dump the references/links of half the internet on here ?

The short interest on Tesla stock has been high since the inception - 60% in the early years, 30% to 40% in 2016 and now hovering around 28% near the lowest point. If more than 1/4 of stock is sold short consistently for over 6 years, what do you think the term "WRITE OFF" means ? Do these people short Tesla stock for fun ? out of spite for the company ? Some of them may have made a few quick bucks during the downturns, but as a whole, they are losing big time. Don't believe it ? just look at the stock price.

If you want quote, look no further than your own post. What exactly do you mean by "Tesla House of Cards to collapse" ? If you want more, ask your buddies mre30 and BobM, they'll provide you plenty of quotes and tidbits foretelling the inevitable "collapse" of Tesla.


As for Mazda's HCCI engine - according to automotive news, the company claims 20%-30% improvement in efficiency. In today's ICE technology, gains in efficiency if any are incremental. Mazda's numbers if found true then would certainly deserve the "holy grail" accolade. Trouble is, if it's that good why no one else is interested in the technology ? too complicated ? too expensive ? too much software control that can tempt the companies into another "dieselgate" ??

EV or ALL-ELECTRIC ? if ELECTRIFIED implies hybrid then the company deserves to be fried. The Toyota Prius came out 20 years ago, now Mazda wants to wait another 10+ years to do hybrid ? EV is by far the simplest solution to GHG emission, there is absolutely no good reason not to commit to it - unless of course they are tied up by the fossil industry.

And lastly, please lay off the references to Trump and his clowns. It's old and cheap.

Gerry Carmichael. Look him/her up. Just on a larger scale.

Liz Carmichael??