Buy, Sell, Or Hold? Morgan Stanley Analyst Claims 10,000,000 Telsas On The Road In A Decade

Tesla is on track to transition from being a niche automaker to a large volume automaker over the next few years. That’s a hard transition to predict since it hasn’t been done in the US for half a century.

Nonetheless, Morgan Stanley is giving it a shot and released today its projections for the growth of Tesla’s global fleet over the next few years.

Morgan Stanley’s automotive industry analyst, Adam Jonas, has long been relatively bullish on Tesla, but he has also been more conservative on the automaker’s delivery targets.

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runninglogan1 - 9/27/2017 8:08:05 PM

-2 Boost

I predict you'll stop commenting on Tesla in less than a year's time.

mre30 - 9/27/2017 1:31:18 PM

+5 Boost

This is just silly and embarassing for Morgan Stanley if its true.

So, in 2017, US TOTAL vehicle sales were 17.55 million. If we are to believe Morgan Stanley's projection - then Tesla's market share of that 17.55 million annual market would have to be at least 1 or 2 million vehicle sales per year.

For comparison, the two best-selling vehicles in 2016 were the Ford F150 at about 700,000 and the Chevy Silverado at about 500,000.

So for this to be real, Tesla would have to be the best-selling vehicle in America (largest market for luxury cars like Tesla).

Silly, just silly.

TomM - 9/27/2017 3:57:59 PM

+3 Boost

AS I have said before - the infrastructure for that number of EVS - and not all will be from Tesla - does not exist. We here in the Northeast US - are already accustomed to summer brown outs because there exists not enough supply - add in a million EVS and the need for infrastructure will have the cost of electricity climb even more than now - and we already are paying more than any other area of the Country.

7msynthetic - 9/27/2017 11:37:25 PM

+4 Boost

And don't forget the competition. Once the real deal of car companies (read - every other company other than Tesla) starts producing a complete line of full on electric cars they will be in wayyy more trouble.

Its also funny how that curve is perfect.

mpls - 9/28/2017 2:19:14 PM

+1 Boost

morgan stanley, Goldman sachs.. both full of it,.,

SanJoseDriver - 10/9/2017 1:45:56 AM

+1 Boost

They could be making 2-3 million cars a year in 2027 if they have the planned 5-6 gigafactories online. 10 million total cars is not an insane number if they hit the production targets. Lot of "ifs" but so far the trajectory is good.