As Tesla's Model 3 Lags, How Much Longer Do YOU Think It Will Take For Its Production Ramp Up To Meet Their Original, Lofty Goals?

I think they are about a month behind, maybe two.

End of the year at the latest.

They will NEVER meet their stated goals - they were unrealistic to begin with.
The projections they made simply do not coincide with the market where cars do not sell in those numbers anymore.

However - the longer they take - the more likely that competition will put models on the market.

THe BOLT already is larger inside than a Model S - now if they actually covered it with a nicely styled exterior - it would give the Model 3 a run for the money - and I will bet that a Bolt based CUV will also beat Tesla to the low priced market too.

The better question is: How many months early was the Model 3 pressed into production? That is the feeling I get.

Hmm, let's see...

(1) 220 Model 3's delivered (we have to assume that for all intents and purposes that these are basically pre-production near hand-built prototypes) and 260 produced thru September.

(2) Musk forecast 1,500 cars per month "by September" and further increases from there. He is now walking back that forecast.

(3) Assuming the early cars are early-production and because most automakers run the assembly lines slow for the early production cars while testing takes place, I think we need to assume that this is basically "testing" phase.

(4) Here is MY forecast for the rest of the year:
July actual = 30 cars
August actual = 100 cars
Sept actual = 260 cars
Oct Forecast = 500 cars
Nov Forecast = 1,000 cars
Dec Forecast = 1,500 cars

True "re-launch" of Model 3 consumer version will issues discovered during early testing fixed = Dec 2017.

True production ramp-up for consumers and cars getting into consumers hands in real quantities = February.

Question - will a February true consumer launch be too late to save Tesla.

Yes, in a few months time, there will likely be another capital round to plug the financial cash flow hole left by the 6-9 months of production delays. If that round goes well - Tesla will continue to operate, if that round is soft then that is the beginning of the end for Tesla.

Tick, tock, tick, tock.

Sorry - I don't believe that Tesla can go back for more money.
People are already not happy that they are taking as long as they are - to produce the cars - and with competition looming - this will be a major hit to stock.

However - I do feel that eventually Tesla will be bought out

TomM wrote “…I don't believe that Tesla can go back for more money…”

I believe you underestimate the number of Tesla believers, and their the strength of their fairth! In some ways, it’s like the iPhone Cult. Remember, every time Tesla has gone to the trough for more money by selling more shares, believers scooped them up. Ditto with the recently issued Tesla junk bonds.

As long as there are believers, they will place their money on Musk’s altar.

The Model 3 line is operational, some of the machines are working for sure and some of it is hand-built. One everything is operational they should be able to scale up very quickly (I hope--I want my 3 this year).

What I worry the most about the Model 3 production ? Freeway 880 (and possibly 680) where Tesla cars are trucked out of the factories can't handle the extra traffic. This is the potential bottleneck that Tesla cannot fix all by itself. So far, I have not seen any improvement in the Fremont area roadway - the current traffic is already bad in that area.

They have autotrains, do not rely entirely on trucks.

Oh, maybe they don't anymore. The loading platforms and tracks are gone. Well that was not smart.

Tesla is really in a pickle. They can't produce too fast and risk having the Model 3 be plagued by QC issues like the Model X. But if they are too slow achieving volumes, the competition will crush them.

Even if they are able to someday hit production goals, Tesla will face stiff competition from every manufacture, something that they've never had to deal with before.

The only saving grace in this MIGHT be the lack of demand.

WHile many have predicted that EVs would eventually take a huge chunk of the car market - it suspect that it will be maybe 20-30% at most - and not right away - maybe in 20 years.

As long as Uncle Sap is paying the bills, Elon Musk has little incentive to run Tesla like a real business.

Tesla is not taking advantage of any subsidies that the other auto-makers do not also have access to.

Uncle is not paying any shit. Has been payed back. With interst. And early.

And do not forget that. TM3 production plan was brought forward by almost 2 years.

And by those metrics, other US auto-makers have taken 10x times that