Tesla Misses The Mark, Again. Is THIS The Start Of Its Downfall OR Is It Merely A Hiccup?

The pressure is on. Tesla's Elon Musk is in a bit of a jam as the Model 3's production numbers are quite low and far off Musk's initial claims/forecast. 

So, now what?

Shares of TSLA are trading near its all-time high of about $360/share but according to a recent story in The Wall Street Journal, major parts of the Model 3 are still being built by hand. Remember, Musk said that at the end of September, he expected the ramp up of production to ship AT LEAST 1,500 Model 3 automobiles. In reality, only 220 were delivered.

This slow ramp up has been attributed to "production bottlenecks," and also Tesla's efforts in Puerto Rico post Hurricane Maria. While the aid in Maria is certainly noble and a great move from a public relations perspective, what does it mean for the company trying to keep its head above water?

The debut of a semi meant for commercial shipping has been pushed back from late October to mid November. We're assuming that Tesla wants to get that product to market as soon as possible as businesses who rely on ground transportation would like to benefit from any savings that could be had through the purchase of more economical vehicles. 

All that said, what say YOU, Spies? Is this the start of Tesla's downfall OR is it merely a hiccup in the launch of an all-new product?



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atc98092 - 10/8/2017 1:44:08 PM

+3 Boost

Honestly, I think it's only a hiccup. I believe he has sufficient support to go at least another year before it might get tough. He's always made predictions that didn't quite meet his schedule, but so far he seems to have made them eventually. If he can get Model 3 sped up within the next few months, not to his promised levels, but enough that he's actually delivering a steadily increasing number, Tesla should be able to continue. But they have to start delivering in quantity.

malba2367 - 10/8/2017 1:52:28 PM

+2 Boost

This is par for the course for Tesla. The real danger for them comes if the Jaguar ipace or BMW 3 series ev comes to market and is widely available before Tesla manages to ramp up their production.

HenryN - 10/8/2017 2:41:22 PM

-4 Boost

I've followed Tesla's progress over the years and don't recall anyone from the company claiming 200K Model 3 by the "end of this year" presumably 2017 according to the article.

If the planned production rate of 5K units a week by Dec is achieved, a miss of 1K units in September is merely a hiccup. Realistically if they can deliver 20K Model 3s this year that would be a huge achievement.

For comparison, GM forecasted 30K Bolt EV in 2017 and after 9 months the mighty GM still can't crack the halfway mark (14302 units end of Sept). The chance that the Model 3 sales exceeding the Bolt's by end of 2017 is pretty good.

HenryN - 10/8/2017 3:16:53 PM

-4 Boost

Tesla has the lofty and well criticized goal of 5K a week of production units by Dec 2017. I don't know how on earth people would interpret it to be 200K in 2017.

The production RATE at a single time point does not equate to volume over time (rate*time). Given long enough time frame, we'll see where the Model 3 is heading.

TheSteve - 10/8/2017 3:32:20 PM

+4 Boost

Tesla Motors is always missing their self-imposed sales targets, production numbers, ramp-up rates, etc. That's just the way they roll. Seeing as this has been going on since Day-1, I cannot conclude that it relates to their alleged imminent "downfall."

MDarringer - 10/8/2017 4:28:17 PM

+7 Boost

The Porsche Mission E will instantly be the one to beat and Tesla will suddenly seem like a Third World penalty box on wheels.

Then factor in the STEEP discounts on the S and X to keep them moving and Elon's production hell is indicative of real issues about the viability of the company.

SanJoseDriver - 10/8/2017 8:01:37 PM

-5 Boost

The steep discounts were overstated and more marketing than anything else, there was never any sort of discount on brand new "configured" cars, just used inventory cars that were loaners/test drive cars. They did drop the price of the P100D line by $5k, that's about it.

I loved the Mission E prototype, but the last beta version looks nothing like it. Super disappointed in how far away Porsche is going from the prototype. Also, it sounds like the car will only go on sale in 2019 with full production in 2020. Whaaaat?? By that time the S/X will be a side project and most of the focus will be the 3/Y/Semi. Even then in the next 2 years the S will get a new interior, never version of autopilot, and probably next gen motors and batteries. The Mission E will not be competing with the Model S of today, but a much stronger model 2-3 years from now.

runninglogan1 - 10/8/2017 8:51:10 PM

-5 Boost

Mission E will never sell in the numbers of the Model S. Never.

SanJoseDriver - 10/8/2017 7:56:56 PM

-4 Boost

Except net reservations are positive and will only grow once more cars hit the road.

runninglogan1 - 10/8/2017 8:50:18 PM

-3 Boost

No one who has actually sat in the Model 3 has had major complaints. Quite the contrary. You're full of shit.

HenryN - 10/8/2017 9:14:05 PM

-3 Boost

@SanJose and Logan: save your breaths - no point arguing with these trolls.

dumpsty - 10/10/2017 12:49:15 PM

+1 Boost

Tesla's biggest problem is definitely meeting demand....regardless of interior style or the potential of future EV competition. Tesla's biggest competition is basically itself.

I think most fanatics have forgotten that Tesla isn't nearly as big a company as GM, Ford, Toyota, Honda. If the company splits its focus on other ventures, events, more products, etc.; that slows the entire organization down. The Model 3 will be scutinized far more than the S & X models mostly due to its lower transaction pricing - the comparison to other vehicles in the same price range will be endless.

edwardfrancis - 10/8/2017 7:13:53 PM

0 Boost

Tesla Misses The Mark, Again. Is THIS The Start Of Its Downfall OR Is It Merely A Hiccup....OR JUST ANOTHER NEW PRODUCT STARTUP?!?!

MDarringer - 10/8/2017 10:12:57 PM

+9 Boost

Another new TESLA start up that was rushed to market and was under-engineered and without any prototype time.

TomM - 10/9/2017 7:10:03 AM

+9 Boost

I never like the TEsla Marketing model - I have always argued that when competition comes form mainstream manufacturers - the lack of a dominant dales channel would doom Tesla. I Would not consider buying one unless a Tesla sales and service location was nearby - and I Mean a few miles - not 1/2 a state. The initial sales of TESLA - without real competition do not reflect what will eventually happen in that case and especially in Rural/far Suburban areas where a trip to the Tesla service center will likely take a $500 tow - and Tesla cannot continue to absorb those tows (THey do not with the Model 3).

However - there are enough manufactures who are behind the curve with EVs - and Tesla -after sputtering - is likely to be bought by someone. By then though - the stock will have had to plunge drastically.

HenryN - 10/9/2017 11:03:54 AM

-1 Boost

"the lack of a dominant dales channel would doom Tesla"

Well that's what the NADA and state Auto Dealer networks are counting on, and that's why they are spending big bucks bribing the state officials to draft/redraft laws preventing Tesla from legitimately selling their cars to consumers. The state of Michigan even goes beyond that and prohibits Tesla service centers from operating within the state - all in the name of "protecting the consumers". Guess who they are really protecting ? They will have their days in court and will be exposed. The true consumer rights will prevail.

For those wishing demise upon Tesla - you had been there before, and you are still wrong. Tesla is much stronger today than it was - it's evident in how the auto and energy industries are reacting - there is no stopping it.

mre30 - 10/9/2017 7:30:39 AM

+10 Boost

The bankruptcy clock is ticking - all it will take is a funding round that is soft and the whole thing unravels like pulling a loose thread on sweater!

Tick, tock.

GermanNut - 10/9/2017 10:56:00 AM

+4 Boost

So apparently Tesla is making part of its Model 3s by hand? There's a huge difference between making cars by hand to producing thousands a week. Tesla has an enormous amount of work to do to reach is goals.

vdiv - 10/9/2017 3:55:08 PM

-1 Boost

Yes, they do. At least they are trying. Comparing a 2012 Model S to a current one is quite revealing. Sounds like they've already mate a bunch of changes to the Model 3 too.

SanJoseDriver - 10/10/2017 10:22:06 PM

+1 Boost

Some of it is built by hand, some by machines (https://www.instagram.com/p/BaAOokSgdCp/), and some of the parts are outsourced from China and Mexico like most cars in this price range. When it gets to full production, it will only need 1/5th as many hours of work by hand as the Model S. The line is definitely working, not all the robots are online but cars are moving through it and it will get better over time--hopefully sooner rather than later. The ramp will be super fast after the kinks are worked out.