Could Tesla's Production Issue Play Into The Hands Of GM And Ford?

The Model 3 wasn't ready for production and the pre-sales were all about grabbing money from gullible wannabees. If I were getting an EV, it would be from a reputable company not Tesla.

I scored with the Model S even though there was a lot of risk buying from a new company, so I'll cut them a little slack on the 3. I can't say there is no risk though, it is a new product.

I just have the same data as investors, well maybe a tiny bit more. Net reservations are still going up week after week from what I understand (new reservations > churn). Another investor meeting is a few weeks away, so there should be an update.

If the people putting deposits on the Model 3 just wanted a BEV they could buy a Leaf. Many do. But they don't. Tesla is as much a brand as it is a car company. It has cache, the Leaf does not. Model 3 and Tesla buyers are conquest sales from Mercedes, BMW and Audi. If the Model S did not exist their dollars would have flowed into the normal avenues for luxury sedans. If you want a Model 3, a BEV Ford Fusion will not suffice. But a BEV Porsche Pajun might.

First - there is no indication that the TESLA buyers are overwhelmingly conquest sales from premium ICE manufactures - however what is clear is that people were looking for a EV that looked more like a car than the wierd shapes that manufacturers have produced so far.

One must remember that the interior of a Chevy Bolt has more space than a Model S. GM has already announced it will produce another 20 different evs. I would bet that they could produce a BUICK that would easily compete with Tesla off the Bolt Platform. THERE was a time that GM had a good styling department - maybe they could have a seance with them.

I still believe that - for the rest of the market that does not really care about EVs - however- that it will be the availability of cars and service local to a buyer that will make the difference - something that severely handicaps Tesla. ANd that is where the mainstream manufacturers will be able to end the run of Tesla.

@TomM What data do you need to understand that every Model S and Model X sale would have gone to another premium ICE car manufacturer had these models not existed? No different than all the sales to date that McLaren has taken way from Ferrari and Lamborghini. Both carved out sales in a marketplace long dominated by big global players with long histories and loyal clients.

And as far as mainstream mfg taking a bite, these are premium offerings and have developed a clear position in the market with folks who like going down the road less traveled and like being seen doing so. I don't believe they will get a Buick. An Audi or Porsche perhaps. Time will tell.

@SanJoseDriver - You still know the way!

There are indicators, previous car ownership and other cars that were actively being looked at around the time of purchase. Over 50% are luxury makes for both the S and X as of a couple years ago.

Also, where did you hear the Bolt has more space? The Model 3 has more headroom, legroom, shoulder room, and hip room than the Bolt for the front passengers and is about the same as the Bolt for rear passengers. Also, is Buick still making cars? Who the heck is going to take a grandpa brand over a Tesla?

The only group of people who "..Tesla's Production Issue Plays Into The Hands Of.." would be the investors who are short the stock.

Here is what happens..
(a) Tesla announces another funding round (probably more junk bonds - though this time, interest rate will be much higher).
(b) Higher junk bond interest rate will cause value of existing junk bonds to soften (I'd say to .75).
(c) Softening Bond prices will lead the stock to start 'gapping down' in value - moving down in chunks over a couple of months (refer to Valeant stock chart).
(d) Negative feedback loop ensues.
(e) Tesla will likely need to recapitalize (see history of Blackberry stock).
(f) Tesla "explores options"

Cool, keep shorting Tesla if you think you have it all figured out.

@SanJoseDriver: be careful! mre30 is using the bowling ball to predict the future. He might just do it to prove himself a man of his words. When you press hard enough, he'll balk and give you garbage excuses. I couldn't get him engaged in a harmless bet last year.

He's just all talk - so are many of the posters on this thread. I'd just ignore them now and see what they have to say by the end of this year. In the mean time, enjoy the ride.

BTW, a simple phrase "investors who are short the stock" proves that this guy doesn't know squat about investing. Short sellers are traders, and are anti-investing. They are not "investors" - they are typically losers (as for the vast majority of Tesla shorts). Hedge funds are usually outdone by S&P and major indexes.