The GREAT Debate: Is It Time That We Start A Tesla DEATH Clock?

Musk's end game is to sell Tesla to someone and that precisely what will happen.

Its mostly 'open source' I predict it just lurches to a halt once the money runs out and then there is a bankruptcy auction (which allows the real investors to get their money back and pay the creditors, while Musk gets $0 or whatever is left over).

Anybody intelligent out there know if there is anything redeeming about "Solar City" which would add value to the bankruptcy estate?

Not just yet. Lots of believers still in the wings. When Tesla offers stock or bonds to raise more capital, and buyers shy away, then Tesla's cash flow will be choked and they'll be in real trouble. In the meantime, don't underestimate the believers. (I'm not one of them)

@TheSteve You are a bully. Your constant attacks here not only prove that, but also that you are intolerant of free speech. Moreover, you are so easily triggered. Many times someone has said something minor and you post an essay reply. The fact that your replies are essays suggests a deep psychopathy stemming from an inner violent hate that is becoming more and more displayed as time goes on. @BobM is the person you appear to hate the most and you routinely tell him how horrible he is, but psychologically you are merely lashing out at what you hate and are ashamed of in your shadow side. You aren't capable of intelligent discourse.

Matt, when I read your posts, especially those calling another person a bully, I can’t help but see you as that seething, hateful Alt.Right-er (AKA Neo Nazi, AKA White Nationalist) who yells at others for hating him, claiming *they* are the mean ones, *they* are the evil ones.

I trust it’s apparent to all viewers that a Nazi rally is exactly what it looks like, in spite of the marchers’ assertions of their innocence, being “in the right,” and their attempts to blame those who oppose them.

I also trust it’s apparent to AutoSpies readers that each poster’s character – including yours and mine – is revealed through their posting history, and by their forum contributions.

Your hatred and disdain for me (along with BobM’s, another Alt-Right-er) is perhaps the most flattering expression I have received on AutoSpies! I imagine it feels like an American G.I. being hated by a Nazi (Neo, or original flavor), and being seen as “bad” because he does not warmly embrace the Nazi, but rather, stands up to him and actively opposes him.

Not to mince words, I believe readers will find it’s unambiguously and abundantly clear that here on AutoSpies, you, Matt, are the hateful, angry bully who tries to silence those who don’t agree with you. Your all-too-predictable pattern is one of browbeating and derision. Then, when someone in the schoolyard stands up to you (that would be me), you cry “He’s the bully! He’s the meany! He’s picking on me!” Yeah, you’re just another innocent Nazi (or Alt.Right-er, or White Nationalist, or whatever term you prefer to use), being victimized by the mean bully who opposes you :-/

In America, you are free to be your angry, hateful Alt-Right self! Also, I am free to shine a spotlight on you, and call you out for what you are: An angry, hateful, Alt.Right-er! Free speech is a dual-edged sword, Matt.

BobM, in case you're not aware how Tesla "believers" show up on Tesla Motors' Balance Sheet, see if you can follow along:

1) Tesla runs low on operating capital (AKA "Cash"). They need cash to operate, to stay in business by paying creditors, suppliers, employees, and various overheads. Without cash, Tesla dies. (This has already happened numerous times. It happens regularly with Tesla).

2) Tesla creates a new stock offering, or a new bond offering to the general public.

3) Financial Analysts -- folks who can read Tesla's financial statements (e.g., Income Statement, Balance Sheet) and wade through the "creative accounting" -- believe Tesla is not on solid footing, and so they rate the stock "hold" or "sell".

4) "Believers", those people who assess Tesla's health and viability based primarily on Tesla's stock value and the stock's generally upward trend, observe that Tesla stock has been going up nicely in the past. They receive this as "proof" that TSLA will continue to go up nicely in the future. They disregard financial analysts' reports of concerns, Tesla's inability to meet their own self-imposed sales targets or production numbers, their catastrophic failure rates (e.g., 60% of Tesla Model Ses needed to have their drivetrain replaced before 60,000 miles), and they continue to believe Tesla is a good investment. These people ("believers") happily trade their dollars for a "piece of Tesla" (stock) or an unsecured promise by Tesla to repay them with interest (bond), because they *believe* Tesla stock will continue to rise in the future as it has in the past.


As long as there are sufficient numbers of "Tesla Believers," Tesla Motors will continue to get cash from them, and will continue to pay the bills to keep the lights on. When the number of Tesla Believers dwindles to the point where there isn't enough cash flowing into Tesla from selling shares or bonds, then the sh*t will hit the fan and Musk will start sweating on a new level.

^^^
BobM, while your hate and rage are well documented in your AutoSpies posting history, I feel you have taken your “thing” to a whole new level in the post above, with your “I’ll give you 8 hours” demans. Seriously, I wonder if you’re unwell :-/ I hope the best for you, whatever is ailing you.

I love the hypocrisy of someone saying "BobM, while your hate and rage are well documented in your AutoSpies posting history..." when the person saying it is himself a hate-spewing bully who despises freedom of speech and is intolerant of everyone who thinks differently from him. TheSteve loves twisting what people say or accusing them of saying something they haven't said or any of a number of illogical inanities. #priceless

^^^
BobM and MDarringer: As always, I recommend that people read the history of yours and my posts, readily available on AutoSpies, and draw their own conclusions as to each person’s character.

Each contributor speaks volumes in their well-recorded history!

In closing my participation on this thread, I would like to offer the apology that BobM has demanded from me, multiple times, earlier in this forum:

To BobM:

- I am sorry that you feel such anger and hate.

- I am sorry you choose to lash out at others, with derision and contempt, whether your decision is a conscious one, or due to uncontrolled, old programming.

- I am sorry you are unhappy, and that you attempt to ease your pain by putting down others, just so that you can feel a tiny bit better.

- I am deeply and sincerely sorry that you cannot find your peace, from within. This is a big one :-( I don’t wish suffering on anyone!

- I am sorry you that you experience such pain when you are exposed to differences of opinion, or other forms of diversity. I am sorry that your need to be seen as “right” is so strong, that you feel you must attack people who think differently from you. I am sorry you experience differences of opinion as an affront to you.


To other AutoSpies members:

- I’m sorry you are exposed to BobM’s (and MDarringer’s) ongoing derision and toxicity. Remember, their way of being does not reflect on who you are.


***

Before I leave this thread, I confess I’ve considered ignoring BobM’s and MDarringer’s hate, anger, derision, and toxicity. It would be much easier for me to just do nothing. However, the following quote inspires me not to be silent on this matter:

“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.”
-- Edmund Burke

I choose to shine a spotlight on hate, racism, and other toxicity. I choose to name it for what it is.

TheSteve loves his drah-mah. It borders on stereotypical snappy queen behavior.

TheSteve can't take the truth being told to him so he declares he is leaving the thread. Way to be an arrogant, self-important ass and a small person.

TheSteve dishes it out but he can't take it in return. He takes offense to the very offenses he commits on others when fire is returned.

BUT as TheSteve prepares to leave, he disrespects and bullies YET AGAIN.

TheSteve: If you're better than BobM and me then ACT accordingly by rising above.

I've actually been conspicuously quiet recently especially as it relates to the cage fighting between TheSteve and BobM.

The difference between TheSteve and me is that TheSteve actually thinks he is a nice guy (I've never pretended to be) but he is beyond triggered when anyone challenges him because he throws drama, drama, and more drama.

I do find it interesting that TheSteve attempted to include me in on his blood war with BobM, so pathetic.

I may never be the smartest guy in the room, but when a company that only produces a small quantity of cars that equals an average weeks output at a Big 3 (or Toyota, or Honda, or Hyundai etc) and yet is worth as much as or in some cases more than a Big 3 manufacturer you have to think there is something wrong.

Hopes and dreams only get you so far, in the end the only thing that Musk has to sell is product, and if he can't get product out the factory door to customers the reality is the customers will eventually go elsewhere. People play the lottery on hope and dreams but the reality is they get up and go to work everyday knowing their hope and dream is just that. In the same way, Telsa has continued to trade on peoples hopes and dreams, but when it comes down to buying time, if they don't have a product to deliver to a customer who needs the product, the customer will bolt.

I look at Tesla and I look at Apple - both have mastered the art of building anticipation. Our own Agent 001 stood in line to get the iPhoneX yesterday. The difference, Apple has proven how to build the want but deliver on it in a timely manner.

A couple hundred cars a week will never satisfy a 400K + demand for product. And more importantly than that, the first 400K + is just a start there has to be a demand beyond that.

I think Telsa gets absorbed into someone else, the question I can't answer is who, and more importantly would it matter. If GM bought Tesla, the panache or owning a Tesla I suspect drops dramatically - and even Musk himself I don't think can overcome that fact.

I give them another year.

Agent 00J

You all forget that there are a couple of hundred thousand Tesla vehicles out there whose owners love them and many are on their second or third one. You forget about something called the supercharger and destination charging networks and what they enable. You forget about Tesla Energy and the products they sell.

All you can think of is how much you can't stand Tesla and what it seems to be doing to the auto industry. Perhaps instead you should look at the industry itself to explain why Tesla and electric cars are here, why people want them, and why they are not looking back to driving a fossil.

You forget that Tesla is the trendy thing and that trendy things sputter out and die. We are seeing the sputtering happening now. The Model S is played out and no replacement is in sight to keep it trendy. The Model X has been a laughable disaster from the get go. The Model 3 is a clusterfruck of idiocy. BUT EVEN IF the Model 3's introduction had gone flawlessly, having 500K Walmart shoppers driving Teslas would destroy the panache and make Tesla less trendy.

I mean, Mercedes would never ruin it's trendiness by doing a rebody on a Renault Megane as an entry level car that is sold solely for its emblem...

Mercedes would never ruin the trendiness?! Oh yeah, the C230, the Chrysler adventure, and the Smart didn't "ruin" anything for them...

@vdiv You missed the point. Shows lack of wit.

No I didn't miss the point, I chose not to insult you instead (you did a good job yourself).

@vdiv No. Think again. You most decidedly missed the point. Not only did you demonstrate that TWICE, but you proved my point vis a vis Mercedes.

You know a point that you miss Matt? Both Daimler and Toyota invested in Tesla when it was fledging, trying hard to get the Model S out, and on the brink of not making it. Both Daimler and Toyota in return got EV technology, got to sell to Tesla parts and a factory, and eventually cashed out their investment, making a lot of money.

@vdiv #bullshit

vdiv, It doesn't matter how many people have bought Teslas, or how much they like their cars. Tesla loses money on every single car they make, and have ever made.

They are going to need capital very soon and the debt and equity markets will not be receptive. They are sitting on the knife's edge and if they can't ramp up Model 3 production imminently, game over.

The model 3 is a poof of concept that mass market EVs are viable. After the first generation of Model 3 proves itself Tesla will pivot to being a battery technology company. They will likely keep producing the Model S/X and a roadster to showcase the next generation of battery technology and the performance capabilities of the technology. They will be the lowest cost/kwh producer of batteries as their tech/manufacturing capabilities surpasses that of anyone else in the space. They will become the OEM supplier of batteries to other automakers, and in the short term they will have very little competition. Their goal is to become like Amazon...with technology and infrastructure that is almost impossible for anyone to duplicate.

No one uses "pivot" in their vocabulary anymore. The optics on it are that it's no longer an impactful word.

Yeah, the fly in the ointment of course is that Tesla doesn't produce the battery cells, Panasonic does. If LG is any indication with the work they did on the Bolt EV (i.e. most of it) it is more likely that battery companies will start making EVs than the other way around.

It depends. Would Chinese money want a piece of Tesla? Would Panasonic or another battery maker? With the big automotive groups moving towards launching their own BEV offerings in 2020 would Tesla be able to compete with a BEV S-Class or Panamera? Clearly they need to get the Model 3 production glitches worked out and then still seek more funding in the short term. When cash flow stops the clock starts.

Tesla is ONLY good for the brand name. It's cars simply aren't that special. Hyundai buying Tesla and co-branding it with Genesis would be genius.

Tesla technology is all 'Open Source' - the only thing with value would be the Tesla brand name and by the time this Sh*t Show is over, the name may be so tainted that even it will lack value.

The Model 3 should have been an utterly conventional crossover.

Many young businesses fail or are purchased by others because they get ahead of themselves by overextending the business before a solid foundation is built...talent is stretched too thin, undercapitalization occurs, management control gets stretched causing issues, employee selection and training suffers, quality declines, unforeseen issues arise from rapid growth or expansion, cost of entering international markets underestimated, etc etc. Nothing beats growth and growth can cover up or mask many issues for a while. Rapid growth and expansion creates issues and associated problems rapidly that can set a company back quickly. Pursuing rapid growth while at the same building the infrastructure and getting access to cash to support the growth is a challenge. I personally think Musk is a genius that has overextended himself and his enterprise and serious problems are rising to the surface. Fortunately for him there is no lack of heavily capitalized Asian buyers who would love to buy Tesla,

You're absolutely correct. You have to learn how to be good at business. Musk is a greedy bastard that is ruining a good thing. None of my business enterprises did I build from scratch. They were handed to me fully formed and successful with a order not to mess them up, but I was fortunate to spend nearly a decade watching how it was done. Several times, I would say why don't you do this, this, this, and this (all at once) and the response was always "do one thing carefully...very carefully...and see what happens before doing something else."

Bob Lutz wrote an article for AUTOMOTIVE news (current 11/5 front page) - in which he outlines the END of the AUTOMOTIVE business and Autos themselves as we know them today. In it - he says that the industry has about 15 years left until Autonomous vehicles replace all cars - and driving your own is not allowed on public roads. THe article is similar to what I predicted months back - but a little more severe.

Nevertheless - AUTO dealers - manufacturers - repair facilities - etc - have only 15 years left - (I expect it will be more like 50 - but will still come) - it makes no difference how Tesla does - they have a limited lifetime in a dying industry. When the government finally realizes that it is drivers who cause the accidents overwhelmingly - and there are self-driving alternatives - they will simply BAN driving - or reduce it to a highly controlled situation where your speed is controlled outside of your car - as well as most other functions now part of a driver's job. Performance will not matter as cars will all have to stay within the driving parameters of all the others - so POTENTIAL cannot be used otherwise.

WHat Mr. Lutz failed to mention - is how the loss of the entire Auto industry in a short period of time would completely wreck the economies of most western countries - where support for the auto industry is a major job center.

Still - it is indeed inevitable that cars will have speed limits imposed by the signs on the road - just as they control staying in lanes. Merging will be accomplished through the "grid" and once you are on the highway - no input will be required until you near your exit (And eventually - you will enter your destination - and the car will take you there without other input)

Mr. Lutz is also known to have poop come out of his mouth on occasion. Apparently, he's done it again.