Range Anxiety Is Almost A Distant Memory - How Many Miles Will It Take YOU To Be Convinced It's True?

This 2G Leaf has enough range for me to consider it on my next car purchase.

Range isn't the issue for me so much as recharge time. When you can recharge as fast as filling a tank and the EV costs the same as an equivalent ICE car then EVs will have arrived.

Readers here know I’m no EV fan, but my recent research is making me think differently.

According to info I’ve seen, new battery technologies will (hopefully) soon give us the following benefits:

- Increased energy density by about 3 times. This means you can reasonably get an all-day driving range for road trips, without recharging. Think 600 to 700 miles.

- Quick recharge times, on the order of 5-10 minutes for a full charge.

- Much reduced battery costs.

- Much more environmentally-friendly batteries.

- Batteries expected to outlast the life of the car.

Obviously, this is as different compared to lithium batteries, as lithium batteries are compared to lead acid batteries. These new batteries are based on new technologies such as solid-state construction, and alternative metals like readily-available sodium instead of lithium.

If these things come to pass, and:
- 5 to 10 minute EV recharge stations are at least as common as diesel stations
- EV costs about the same to buy as ICE
- EV’s ongoing maintenance costs prove to be lower than ICE
- EV replacement batteries are a non-event

Then I’ll be looking at EVs differently when I’m planning my next car!

While I agree that an EV with 600 full charge range and 10 minute recharges would indeed make EVs a real solution for most everyone - we tend to forget that the market is not just for evolution of the EV. By the time these EV advances come to pass - it is JUST as possible that we will have a breakthrough in ICE technology that effectively greatly reduces emissions - and increases efficiency - to a point beyond which the current electrical generation system can compete. One should not overlook the huge size of the energy companies - who have to do something to ensure their existence in the future. They have the money for the research.

We still would ALSO need both electric generation capacity we do not currently have - and the charging infrastructure for people who are not in their "home" turf as well. It makes no sense to have 10 minute charging if there are 10 cars in front of you waiting to get to the charger.

I am at an age when I am planning and making my last likely last car purchases - and I would expect they would easily handle my needs for at least 15 years or so - although I doubt I will be driving that long. SO - I do not have the luxury of dreaming of what MIGHT be - it is not now - and now is where I am. And today - EVS are still not a real possibility for me. A regular Hybrid - if they were better drivers - could be a possibility - but I am no longer looking for a small traveler. Plug in Hybrids were never a serious possibility for me - since I regularly still drive long distances away from home base - and finding suitable charging is still not a real option - unless one can reserve time reliably for them.

I continue to believe that it will take far longer for the EV to take over the market - maybe 30-40 years. Especially in the Rural areas of the country.

TomM: +1, and I agree on all your points. My post is to indicate that EVs are getting closer to me not dismissing them outright for my use. This does not mean I'm expecting my next car to be an EV. By the time I'm ready for a new vehicle, I'll evaluate the offerings at that time.

@TheSteve - Solid state batteries is simply how the battery is built, but solid state could still be lithium based. Your just moving from a liquid electrolyte to a solid one. Currently the most promising solid state is lithium sulfur. (but who knows). To note though Lithium batteries is a wide range of batteries and they all operate pretty differently. Also, lithium is pretty common.

@TomM - I can guarantee that ICE would never be able to catch up to electric. Even if we ignore that the amount of R&D that goes into ICE is far more yet the gains are marginal (and R&D into batteries is going up). The reason boils down to the laws of physics. Breaking the laws of physics is a much tougher job then getting the chemistry just right.


As far as electric capacity, we already have it. There is enough offpeak capacity to power all cars on the road.

In terms of infrastructure, building EV stations are 10X cheaper than gas stations.

EVs are much closer than you think. I see that by 2022/2024, most new cars sold will be HEV/PHEV/BEV and by 2034, most new cars sold will be BEV.

I completely agree with you. This should be VW's mission with its EV program. Thank you for not writing an essay and making your point succinctly.

That's what makes them sell to the intended audience. The owners are greener than thou and they want you to know you're a lesser being. So you say "Why are all EVs ugly as shit?" and they will bully you for not caring about the environment. You see, THEY care so much about the environment that THEY have the balls to drive an ugly car. Whereas you care about style so obviously you're not at their "morally green" level. Get it now?

joneshamilton: While many EVs have offputting styling, Tesla's are pretty okay (S, 3, Roadster), the new Nissan Leaf is looking more mainstream. It appears EV makers are slowly smartening up and giving up that "need to look weird to be an EV" mindset.

@joneshamilton, the Model S looks like a big, overweight Fusion.

Car designers are just continually proving they are morons with no taste. With the EV's they are encouraged to be extra "creative" and this is the result.

Is this EV ugly to you:

https://www.nio.io/ep9

I still think the Model S looks better with a 6-year old design than any other car in its class. The Model X could still use some work but the Model 3 looks solid for its price range.

I would say 200 miles of range is what we need to get over the psychological barrier of range anxiety. I'm fine with 130 miles, and 200 with fast-charging should be able to cover 99.9% of use cases and be okay for ~80% of the population.

However, I think it will all be irrelevant in 3-5 years since autonomous car sharing will make it so that consumers don't even have to think about range or charging--whichever car picks them up will have enough range to get them to their destination.