No One Really Knows How Many Model 3s That Tesla Has Delivered

Tesla Inc. may have delivered about four times more Model 3 sedans last quarter than in the prior three months — or boosted sales by a factor of 27, depending on which analyst you ask.

The broad range of estimates reflects how little the electric-car maker has disclosed about the progress it’s made speeding up production of its sedan that starts at $35,000. Model 3 deliveries might have climbed to about 2,917 vehicles, the average estimate of nine analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

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MDarringer - 1/2/2018 11:51:16 AM

+3 Boost

Any way you slice it, the Model 3 is a total disaster for Tesla. This is an epic failure to execute.

What probably happened was that the Model 3 was probably going to be ready for a late 2018 release, but Musk didn't listen and introduced it a year before it could be ready and then compounded his idiocy by not having a production plan. Then Tesla scrambles to make Der Fuhrer's kampf a reality and the production cataclysm resulted.

Moreover, when people quote a % increase in volume, the significance of that number must be weighed against the number on which it is based.

One brand in particular egregiously reports sales each month and then recalculates "backs out" sales so that a year later they can used the "backed out" number to give the impression of a sales increase.

The "backed out" number is the result of what the company pushes out to dealers (the manufacturer calls that number sales whether or not the cars are actually sold) MINUS actual sales.

Thus when sales are reported each month, those sales are "mushy" because it's more the manufacturer "push" number rather than the corrected "pull" number (i.e. actual sales).

randy3023 - 1/2/2018 1:06:31 PM

-2 Boost

Tesla has delivered between 2,200 and 3,000 model 3s.

https://blfire.lima-city.de

What is the exact number? OMG NOBODY REALLY KNOWS! OMG! PANIC!

This article's impatient speculation already seems trivial. Just imagine how pointless it will be in a few months.

SanJoseDriver - 1/2/2018 1:12:20 PM

-3 Boost

Initial deliveries to actual customers are happening, and the reviews have been very positive so far: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfCEYnLYwQE&feature=em-subs_digest-vrecs

Also, Tesla only counts something as a sale if the car is delivered to the customer.

mre30 - 1/2/2018 4:58:10 PM

+8 Boost

Sad