Tesla Misses Model 3 Deliveries, BIG Time — TSLA Pushes Guidance Back, Again

Missing self-imposed milestones, sales targets, ramp-ups timetables, deliver schedules, etc. is standard operating practice at Tesla Motors, so this is nothing new.

The word on the street is that Tesla will need to raise another 1 to 1.5 Billion dollars (US$) to keep running, sometime in Q1 to Q2 2018. Will Tesla fans scoop up the next share or bond offering, as they have in the past? Stay tuned. Last time I checked, the first (and only) issue of Tesla bonds were trading under water.

Is that the total number of Model 3 deliveries? Out of 500,000 pre-orders?

1,550 Model 3s were delivered in Q4, 793 are pending delivery, and they are at a production rate of ~1k/week. Total delivered is around 2k, just ~498,000 more to go.

According to articles like this one (https://www.recode.net/2017/8/2/16087432/tesla-model-3-electric-car-manufacture-preorder-cancellations-elon-musk), Tesla used to have a total of about 518,000 orders, but around 63,000 (12.1%) have been cancelled so far, bringing their total order book down to about 455,000 Model 3s.

Tesla delivered a mere 1550 Model 3s in the entire 4th quarter of 2017, while they predicted they'd be making 5,000 units PER WEEK by the end of 2017! Yeah, they're a little off.

Assuming Tesla can even get their production up to 5,000 Model 3s per MONTH (way higher than they are now), it'll take them 91 months (7.6 years) to clear up the current backlog, assuming no cancellations. If they can ever get up to their predicted 5,000 units per week number -- and they're a looooooong ways off from that -- it'll take 91 weeks (1 year 9 months) to clear up the current backlog, again, assuming no cancellations.

This does not look a setup for success to me, especially when we consider Tesla has never made a profit, and will need to tap capital markets yet again in Q1 or Q2 this year to keep running, and will likely need to continue doing so for the foreseeable future.

Relax people. Everything's going to be okay.

AS I have said before-= the longer it takes for Tesla to ramp up model 3 production - the more competition will be introduced - and the competition is not limited by their non-competitive sales model that will only work well when they are clearly the only game in town.

AS such - Model S sales are slowing as well. And the price of Lithium has not reduced at the rate that was predicted - so I can question whether there is profit in the Model 3 - since they are only producing the highest priced examples first. WE will not know if the Model 3 is profitable until the less expensive examples make up the majority of the cars.

Lithium Ion prices have been dropping quicker than predicted just an fyi. If you mean Lithium the element, it can become 10X more expensive and it wouldn't be a big deal. Despite being called lithium ion, very little lithium is actually in it.

Implosion coming. This is why Musk is in Colombia doing a drug deal.

Ahhh, memories of John Delorean.
Hmmmm, Elon might be hiding things in the solar panels he's intends to bring back.
All kidding aside, I hope the Model 3 ramps up to the levels announced. Their cars have been a game changer for the industry imo. It'll be a shame if Tesla goes under.

Quel surprise!

I, for one, can't wait to read the Harvard Business School Case Study on the rise, plateau, government complicity, and spectacular implosion of this pile.

So far we have only been exposed to the broken promises and bad decisions and maybe innocent misrepresentations of management. Is there more buried within the pile?

Glass half-full, the month before they only delivered 345.

How about 'em Model S at almost 5,000, Model X at over 3,000 last month? Which one would you guess has the better margin, the 3 or the S/X?

Since they are now on 1000 cars production per week, that means that they will at least have 50k Model 3 cars produced in 2018. But even then since the major bottlenecks have been addressed I predict 100k-200k for 2018. A few months delay is not the end of the world.

The faster Telsa produces model 3s, the more money they lose. I'd anticipate a huge equity raise in Q1 and a rating agency downgrade. If PWC doesn't call out very specific deficiencies in the annual report then they are simply incompetent.

And now the SEC refuses to provide all Telsa/SolarCity investigative documents per FOI requests, which hints that an investigation may be ongoing. Can't wait to see the 10-K.

Tick-tock, Tick-tock...that's the sound of Audi and Mercedes-Benz's all-electric offerings due out in 2018 or early 2019. Better get the production of that Tesla Model 3 up soon because the competition is fine tuning its own fleet of EVs.

Good luck, Tesla! You'll need it once you're not the only game in town.

Not only will they not be the only game in town, they will quickly discover they are no longer in the game.

I don't think Tesla will go under. They seem to have a good following which will probably keep them going for some time.
Having competition will force Tesla to improve quality and speed to market. So M-B, Audi, et al joining the market will be great for all EV buyers.

Tesla can't make a profit. Mercedes on the other hand can afford to lose money on EVs because it has a juggernaut of profit elsewhere. Tesla is stumbling and it's about to fall down and go boom.