NAME and SHAME: Which Automaker Do YOU Think Will NOT Survive The Next 24 Months?

Today I was conducting a speaking engagement at my alma mater, about the automobile industry, when a thought popped into my mind. While discussing Tesla, its latest woes and what I think paves the path to a secondary offering on the markets, I said to myself: "Yeah, they'll probably make it."

Later on I started wondering: "Hm, who won't?"

There's at least several names I am thinking of that are in dire straits. And, to me, there's a good chance they're going to fold. But rather than show you my cards, I wanted to ask you, the Spies, for your picks.

Perhaps it's time we start a dead pool? Maybe fire up the death watch clock?

What say you, Spies? Which automaker do YOU think is living on borrowed time?

MDarringer - 5/8/2018 10:03:44 PM

-5 Boost

As much as I would like it to be Tesla. I think FCA will implode. Jeep, Ram, and possibly the Dodge twins (Challenger and Charger) have worth in them, but the rest of the company is worthless. Chrysler is starved for product. Fiat and Maserati have OLD products. Alfa Romeo simply isn't setting the world on fire with sales volume.

TomM - 5/8/2018 10:48:13 PM

-1 Boost

No big name will go out- including Tesla.

FCA made too much profit over the last two years to go out of business on the next two years - it will take a lot longer that that. WE get very little info on what FIAT is doing in Europe to judge that easily though. But Jeep is a runaway hit and they have the new Wrangler coming.

SanJoseDriver - 5/8/2018 10:50:38 PM

-7 Boost

I'm going to bookmark this thread for the future.

Going to go with Lucid Motors as least likely to survive. Fiat Chrysler for the established brands.

vdiv - 5/9/2018 12:05:45 AM

+4 Boost

Well, Lucid is a startup, not really an automaker yet. It's a bit funny that you would mention them, there is not much love between Tesla and Lucid which employs a good number of former Tesla folks who worked on the Model S.

I think Mazda and Subaru will be bought (akin to Mitsubishi by Nissan). They are too small to survive on their own and have so far forgone electrification.

SanJoseDriver - 5/9/2018 2:38:07 PM

-1 Boost

Oh, I like the car Lucid proposed. In most ways it is better than the Model S dollar for dollar. I just don't think they have the billions necessary to pull it off. I'm hoping they will be acquired and will still get to bring it to market.

GeorgeD - 5/8/2018 11:09:02 PM

-7 Boost

GMC - I think way too much overlap with Chevrolet and Cadillac.

TomM - 5/9/2018 7:33:36 AM

+7 Boost

Actually - GMC sales are increasing every year - they are the PREMIUM small truck division of GM. Their profitability is probably the highest of any GM division - and they Balance the NO Pick Up Buick division nicely (Most are Buick-GMC dealers)

It would take another Bankruptcy by GM itself for that to happen - and I do not believe it would.

Runamukk - 5/8/2018 11:34:43 PM

+13 Boost

I'm going with Mitsubishi and Tesla.

sailorliteLW - 5/9/2018 12:40:33 AM

0 Boost

Is Smart still an automaker? Are they still around?

TomM - 5/9/2018 7:14:05 AM

+3 Boost

Smart is a Brand that is part of Diamler (Mercedes) - that sells millions (!.7 million in 2015) of mini-cars around the world - and will not be out of business any time soon

TomM - 5/9/2018 7:23:04 AM

-2 Boost

Karma is not a company - it is a model of a car. Originally production was attempted by FISKER - a few thousand were actually built - who IS indeed out of business (Nov 2013) - the assets of the corporation have been sold and resold - and they are now owned by Wanxiang Group Corporation of China. THat company is the LARGEST supplier of automotive parts in china -unlikely to go out of business - who are trying to make this expensive ($130,000) plug-in Hybrid.
.

MDarringer - 5/9/2018 8:56:05 PM

+2 Boost

Karma IS a brand. Google Karma Revero.

Dexter1 - 5/9/2018 6:49:27 AM

0 Boost

Lexus. (Oh — maybe that's just wishful thinking to get those eyesores off the road.)

TomM - 5/9/2018 7:28:46 AM

-1 Boost

Lexus is actually acting in good faith. WE already have protected the Bison so well that they are off the Endangered species list - are categorized as NEAR endangered - and their population is growing and spreading - SOOO - Lexus has made the decision to include a COW CATCHER on the front of its cars to SHOO the Bisons away - to prevent unneeded Bison death - forward thinking like this is something you rarely see from AMerican manufacturers.

SanJoseDriver - 5/9/2018 2:39:20 PM

-1 Boost

Yeah, we'll see what things look like in 2 years.

trboaccord - 5/9/2018 1:57:18 PM

+13 Boost

anyone who thinks Subaru is going anywhere needs to have their head examined! They have the market cornered and will not be going anywhere.

cidflekken - 5/9/2018 3:47:45 PM

+11 Boost

The only make at risk is Tesla. The company is heavily in debt and has ongoing production problems (Model 3) and quality issues. And as more established brands enter the EV fray, this may put the brand at the bottom of many shopping lists. But, they have persevered this far, we'll see how much longer investors are willing to wait to reap the rewards.

Agent00R - 5/9/2018 11:24:27 PM

-2 Boost

Faraday Future, anyone?

Chrysler.

SanJoseDriver - 5/10/2018 2:15:10 AM

0 Boost

Oh yeah, forgot about Faraday Future. Chances are not so great for them either.

MDarringer - 5/12/2018 1:57:12 PM

+1 Boost

@00R I think The only viable brands in FCA are Jeep and Ram. Dodge has a little life left but lack of new product is quickly ruining that. Chrysler, Maserati, and Fiat are starved to death for competent product. The big Alfa Romeo push simply hasn't gone well. They might annualize at 15-18K units this year which is a dismal failure.