Tesla Currently Is Running A 19 Month Backlog On Model 3 Production

Don't worry. That backlog will thin out as deposit-holders continue to drop off.

Reports say that nearly a quarter of Model 3 deposits have been refunded so far. Refunds to sales are outnumbered about 3 to 1. Here's just one such report:
https://electrek.co/2018/06/04/tesla-model-3-reservations-refunded-report/

I truly wonder what assumptions that Tesla is TRULY operating on, internally, regarding the production backlog.

There has been little talk about Model S or Model X demand/now+future - the sole focus has been on the Model 3. Since the Model 3's do not throw off any profits, any operating cash flow margin must come from the S or the X.

I'll be very curious about how this goes.

@mre30: I agree with you. Since Day-1, Tesla has operated at a loss, never had a viable business plan to profitability, and has always depended on regular infusions of cash to keep the lights on. This cash came in the form of:
- Research grants (to a smaller extent)
- Capital raised from stock offerings (major factor)
- Capital raised from junk bonds issued (One issue. They're under water)
- Bank loans

This is clearly not a sustainable business model. I, too, am curious how this will unfold. Tesla is just months away from needing more cash to keep operating, and Model 3 deposits aren't enough to make up that cash shortfall.

@mre30 and the Model S and X are getting a bit long-in-tooth in the trendy EV wars. Tesla's 3rd model should not have come to market a year before engineering and production were ready and the 3rd model should have been a crossover.

They delivered 30k cars and still have 420k reservations, still impressive given the number of years people are waiting. I don't think net reservations will go down quickly since more people will reserve as the line gets shorter. If they can get to a consistent 6k cars/week by the end of the month then that is a 16 month backlog.

I've spoken to four Model 3 owners. They all LOVE their cars. The only thing Tesla has to fear is seriously screwing up production. I doubt that will happen.

It will be 6 months before it drops from $7500 to $3750, and the subsidy might change by then. It would be pretty ridiculous if we end up subsidizing all the foreign makes while penalizing Tesla and GM for creating the EV market in the US. Instead of 200k cars, it should be based on year and phase out over time (ex: $7500 in 2018, $5000 in 2019, $2500 in 2020, $0 in 2021).

Worst case scenario, competitors will have an advantage for 200k car sales in the US. Even then, many of Tesla's sales are now overseas. They could shift focus until the market equalizes over here.