The Tesla Momentum Continues. The Big Brands Won't Say It, But They're SH_TTING Their Pants.

It is starting to become evident that Q3 2018 could be the quarter when the Model 3 starts its invasion of the US passenger car market.

The Model 3 has started to show its potential in the US passenger car market over the past months. Back in July, sales estimates from auto tracking website GoodCarBadCar suggested that Tesla sold 14,250 Model 3 in the month, making it 7th place in America’s list of best-selling passenger cars. Considering that mainstream, lower-priced vehicles like the Toyota Camry and the Honda Civic were included in GCBC‘s list, the Model 3’s 7th place was more than respectable.

While the Model 3’s sales in July were undoubtedly impressive, its August estimates were even more noteworthy. With an expected 20,450 units sold during August, the Model 3 became the 5th-best-selling passenger car in the US, beating out the Hyundai Elantra and the Nissan Altima. The Model 3 was even listed as the 15th-best-selling vehicle in GCBC‘s overall Top 20 list, which includes titans like the Ford F-150 and the Toyota Rav4.

Truthy - 9/24/2018 9:34:55 PM

+13 Boost

I do not think anyone at the major manufacturers are as worried as you indicate. They are all making money and are sitting on large cash reserves from the 9 year bull run. Tesla is burning through cash to get production up and loses money on each vehicle sold.
Tesla has no unique technology. Where is the happy ending here?

SanJoseDriver - 9/24/2018 9:54:54 PM

-7 Boost

That is like saying Apple has no unique technology vs. Android (and I say this as an avid Android user).

MDarringer - 9/24/2018 10:23:20 PM

+1 Boost

@SJD, @Truthy nailed it. I'm with Truthy

TheSteve - 9/25/2018 2:26:06 AM

+1 Boost

Truthy: +1

Porsche has amongst the highest profit per vehicle sold. Tesla continues to depend on loans and capital markets for cash, and has always bled red ink. VW, Audi, Nissan... all profitable companies. 001 thinks they're worried?

Look at worldwide EV sales and you'll notice the where Tesla leads:
- Hype
- Losses
- A cult-like following
- Missing self-imposed product launch dates
- Missing self-imposed unit sales
- Missing self-imposed ramp-up rates

Who, other than a fool, would be worried about Tesla? Well, if you're holding TSLA or their junk bonds for the long haul, then perhaps you should be worried :/

TheSteve - 9/25/2018 2:29:31 AM

-3 Boost

SanJoseDriver: Apple does not have unique technology compared to Android. Apple just has packaging and services (software) that some customers prefer.

FYI, I use a number of Apple products (Apple TV x 3, Airport Extreme x 2, iPhone, MacBook Air), but I know better than than to claim Apple has advanced or (meaningfully) unique technology holding them up. I also have some hefty non-Apple hardware and software.

HoustonMidtown - 9/25/2018 7:17:55 AM

+4 Boost

@TheSteve - so the custom-made chip in Apple products isn't unique to Apple?

SanJoseDriver - 9/26/2018 3:49:38 AM

+1 Boost

Apple has amazing design and literally the fastest mobile chip in production. They also have the leading mobile ecosystem. Whatever Apple does, the rest of the industry follows a year later ::cough:: notch ::cough::

SanJoseDriver - 9/24/2018 9:55:56 PM

-9 Boost

Heck yes they are sh__ing their pants. Otherwise, you really think they would be throwing $$ Billions at electrification right now?

hangtime010 - 9/25/2018 8:28:58 AM

+6 Boost

@SanJoseDriver - companies put billions towards new lines, designs and technology all the time. Doesn't mean that they're sh_ing their pants. It's a market/niche (whatever you want to refer to it as) that they now believe is viable from a sales perspective.
For instance the BMW X6. Once all alone in that niche, but MB and Audi see there are sales to be made. Heck, even Porsche is making one.

MDarringer - 9/25/2018 9:02:46 AM

+5 Boost

@SJD do you not realize that ANY new car program costs billions to develop? So when Ford drops billions on the next Mustang, it's just the cost of doing business, but they aren't sh!++!ng their pants over the Camaro.

SanJoseDriver - 9/27/2018 1:26:47 AM

+1 Boost

True, but do you think Ford would be investing $11 billion on EVs if it weren't for Tesla? Heck no, maybe a decade from now. MB is investing at least $10 billion on their program and VW/Audi is pushing a staggering $40 billion. That's great for us, we're going to get faster, more practical, safer cars sooner rather than later.

MDarringer - 9/24/2018 10:22:44 PM

+9 Boost

Tesla doesn't have the money to sustain their claimed growth over time.

mre30 - 9/24/2018 10:24:18 PM

+12 Boost

I'm glad Tesla is churning out the $65,000 Model 3's from the ??0,000?? unit backlog.

Let's see how the order book looks once the backlog is satisfied.

We all need to be honest and highlight that Tesla "DELIVERING" (not selling) 14,250 Model 3's this month is much different than Nissan (actually) selling 14,925 Altima's. The Altima's were sold to people who walked into a Nissan retailer and walked out with a car. This Model 3 "good month" is also not the same as Honda selling 27,677 Civics and Toyota selling 30,141 Camry's.

Order backlog is completely different than normalized, repeatable, monthly sales.

Model 3 is an order backlog, apparently

mre30 - 9/24/2018 10:25:39 PM

+12 Boost

No one seems to be too worried.

SanJoseDriver - 9/27/2018 1:31:12 AM

+1 Boost

Demand is not likely to taper off even after the backlog is addressed if the S/X are any indication.

jeffgall - 9/25/2018 5:43:14 AM

+11 Boost

The more I look at the model 3, the more I dislike it’s awkward proportions. Ditto for the X

SanJoseDriver - 9/27/2018 2:43:53 AM

+1 Boost

S is still the best looking in the lineup, but the interior on the 3 wins hands down. X is more about practicality than anything else, agree the proportions are a little funky.

PUGPROUD - 9/25/2018 5:55:37 AM

+1 Boost

Its always an advantage to be first to market with something new, different and innovative. Usually the competition is stuck with the old way of doing things, older different technology, has problems competing against its own brands, staffed with people stuck in the past and a strong reluctance to change. All to Tesla's advantage. Having said all that I still believe the big automotive boys will prevail in EV's over them in time.

MDarringer - 9/25/2018 8:59:58 AM

+4 Boost

Not necessarily. That depends on execution. There are abundant examples of getting to the market second, but doing it right--and better--than those who got there first.

SanJoseDriver - 9/27/2018 3:04:22 AM

+1 Boost

Innovator's Dilemma--upstarts have prevailed over established companies repeatedly in history... typically doing exactly what Tesla is doing--taking a first principles approach, getting rid of stuff you don't need, and offering a better value than competitors. You can't get Model 3 specs from any other $49k car today, even if rebates go to 0.

EVisNow - 9/25/2018 9:59:14 AM

-6 Boost

Based on the responses here, I'd say most of you guys are shitting your pants instead of the automakers. At least, they have a plan to join Tesla in its EV endeavor. You, on the other hand, just sit still, moan and continue sucking the exhaust pipe.

Hilarious!

CANADIANCOMMENTS - 9/25/2018 11:24:30 AM

-3 Boost

I think a lot of people here are missing the point. The Model S dominates large luxury sedan sales now, outselling the S-Class by a wide margin. And presently the Model 3 in high dollar form is the 5th best selling car in the USA. Beating out mainstream cars that are half the price. Think about that. You can bet every automaker is paying close attention to these figures. Imagine what will happen when a Model Y CUV comes out. This is an industry disruptor in action and it is finally getting up to speed.

OneOfOne - 9/25/2018 12:11:16 PM

+3 Boost

suvs rule the market. nobody cares about sedans except self absorbed losers as you can tell by the vanity license plates they insist on

OneOfOne - 9/25/2018 12:10:25 PM

+3 Boost

the writer is either a troll, drunk, or stupid

Truthy - 9/25/2018 1:05:00 PM

+5 Boost

Total global auto sales are 81.5 million units annually. The US is about 17 million units. If trends continue, Tesla will sell about 250,000, or about 0.3 percent of the global total and just 1.4 percent of the US.

SanJoseDriver - 9/27/2018 3:00:50 AM

+1 Boost

It's a very long term plan that involves a lot more than just cars. Production should hit 350,000 cars next year and up to a million in 2021. If they can get their sh** together with manufacturing, they'll have a Porsche-esq margin by that time as well.

SanJoseDriver - 9/27/2018 3:05:27 AM

+1 Boost

Tesla stock was doing pretty well last time I checked.

Truthy - 9/25/2018 2:00:25 PM

+5 Boost

What is driving the investment by major automakers is China moving toward EVs. China still represents growth in the industry and EVs will be a big part of that, more so than Tesla.

SanJoseDriver - 9/27/2018 3:07:05 AM

+1 Boost

And guess which US company will be the first to have a wholly owned factory in China...

ColMosby - 9/25/2018 10:02:47 PM

+2 Boost

Perhaps if you realize that the number of Model 3 cars sold last month is unknown. We know how many were built and delivered, that's all we know. Tesla resfuses to state actual monthly sales. Those cars delivered last month were bought years ago. The company which is shitting in their pants is Tesla - they are about to get clobbered by all kinds of things and are playing second fiddle in the EV arena's important metrics these days : price, driving range, looks, acceleration, battery recharge speed, charging network buildout, Federal tax credits. Only a half dozen or so competitior cars are about to hit the showrooms - the Jaguar I Pace, Audi e-tron, Porsche Taycan, Volvo Polestar 2, and some Asian and Chinese EVs,but they all are hardly worried about Tesla.

SanJoseDriver - 9/27/2018 3:10:20 AM

+1 Boost

That is some potent crack you must be smocking. They are the leader in absolutely everything you mentioned except for Federal tax credits.

"price, driving range, looks, acceleration, battery recharge speed, charging network buildout"

And guess what, all companies will get their 200k of rebates and be in the exact same position as Tesla... it's a very temporary advantage.