As Tesla Model 3 Sales Rise, BMW 3-Series Sales Decline - Care To Guess Why?

Welcome to the future aesthetic for cars. Clean and utilitarian is where cars will head as autonomy takes over.

Wow, more probing questions from Autospies..

Let's start with the definition of "Association-Causation Fallacy" = Confusing association with causation. This is similar to the post-hoc fallacy in that it assumes cause and effect for two variables simply because they occur together. This fallacy is often used to give a statistical correlation a causal interpretation.

This question assumes that Tesla Model 3 "deliveries" (they can't be honestly called sales) occur because the consumer SOLELY choose the Model 3 over the BMW 3. This is not a valid assumption unless you obtain "trade-in" date from Tesla (which has not provided it).

Q = "As Tesla Model 3 Sales Rise, BMW 3-Series Sales Decline - Care To Guess Why?"

MrE30 Answer =
A subset of people who have been buying Prius' the past 15 years are wealth enough to afford a more expensive "Green" car and they are flocking to the Model 3. Also - many of the Model 3's are a novelty vehicle and the 3rd or 4th vehicle in the house. I would postulate that many buyers (who have waited three years for their DELIVERY) view the Model 3 for its entertainment value, as it has many limitations for use as the only household vehicle.

Now the the BMW - like ALL sedans and non-SUV's, the 3-series sales are down because the 3-Series demo is now buying an SUV (probably one of the many BMW offers). That's it.

It is reckless to imply that most Model 3 sales are driven because people are exiting their 3-Series.

Your theory doesn't explain why the BMW 3-series is a top trade-in vehicle for the Model 3.

Once again the fiction that last month's Model 3 deliveries represented last month's Model 3 sales. I seriously doubt that anyone who took delivery of a Model 3 last month bought the car within the past year or two. When the Model 3 waiting list is empty, THEN, and only then will anyone know how well the car is selling. There is also the small matter of govt subsidies for Tesla that have helped sales immeasurably. When the subsidies are gone, how many Model 3 cars can Tesla sell? What happens when direct competitors of the Model 3 show up - right now, any legitimate comparisons are actually comparing the sales of a single electric car against the sales of a dozen gas powered cars. Not a valid comparison.

Until AGENT OO9 gives us some EVIDENCE that former BMW owners are even considering Tesla Vehicles - there is NOTHING out there that even suggests that this is nothing more than a typical END OF CURRENT MODEL response to the BMW that is due to be replaced by a new model soon.

Since virtually ALL cars whose model is ending and being replaced have lower sales because people are waiting for the next model - we have NO reason to believe Tesla has ANYTHING at all to do with it. In fact - HISTORY tells us that this phenomenon has happened for decades BEFORE Tesla cars were even produced - which give us EVERY indication that Tesla sales have nothing at all to do with it. Surely Tesla had nothing to do with the Demise of Packard?

Folks at CleanTechnica.com provide solid US sales data proving that the Model 3 is taking sales across the board from other comparable cars. Decline in BMW sales due to model year change may have some impact, but the general uptrend of the Model 3 versus downtrend of other makes tells the whole story - the Model 3 is replacing other ICE cars at an increasing rate.

https://cleantechnica.com/files/2018/09/Tesla-Model-3-vs-Competitors-Sales-June-August.png

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/20/us-bmw-3-series-sales-have-collapsed/

YOU are again interpreting SALES data - and failing to prove Causation.

Just because the sales of small sedans are falling off - the most obvious indication is that people are now buying Crossovers and SUV - whose sales are the clear story here - not the nonsense about the Model 3.

As far as sales of the Model 3 being an uptrend - we do not have ANY statistics that proves that - since they are still working on backorders. WHen those sales - including the Base model sales - are completed - and they are working with NEW sales - then we will have some indication of the viability of the Model 3 sales - and not UNTIL then will we have anything that even proves otherwise.

Huh? did you look at those charts ? are you going to say those numbers are not real ? Trade-in data published earlier (last month?) also confirmed BMW as #2 on the list of trade-ins.

Since only a fraction of Model 3 transactions involve trade-ins, and there is no official tracking of cars being replaced by the Model 3, 100% causation is not possible. What you can do is use the data to deduce (but that takes some brain power and objectivity - which seem to be lacking from your perspective).

No matter how you slice it, the Model 3 sits at the top of the US car sales chart in August in term of revenue and 5th in sales number. What's so hard to accept ?

And what's the definition of a sale ? Tesla only realizes revenue when the car is actually in the customer's hand when the MVPA is signed and payment finalized. What does pent up demand have anything to do with present revenue ? You are projecting a decline in demand for the Model 3 without a shred of evidence, yet downplaying the current demand as something that happened in the past ?

For simpletons, why not just look at PRESENT SALES NUMBERS and accept the facts.

Because people like cars that look like toads?

Really who cares if the Model 3 is taking sales away from BMW. As long as the Model 3 removes ICE cars off the road, that's the goal for Tesla.

The fact that the Model 3 outperforms the 3-series as a benchmark sports sedan is just icing on the cake. The Model 3 is truly a "have your cake and eat it too" kind of car. Sales number reflects that - and you can't argue against hard facts whether you like it or not.

Right Jazzyjazz! The tin can exhaust on the Civic alone would blow away anything in its path. Propulsion from that alone can send the Civic into space - we don't need any rocket.

Only douchebags use the word douchebag lol.

One thing I never see people commenting is that many people make protest purchases. They'll do anything hoping to end the oil dependency.

I'm not an electric car person but I absolutely HATE going to the gas station and giving them my $$$.

001

Model 3's interior is trash.

Disagree, think the interior is nicer than on the S. Will take some getting used to for a lot of people, but there is no going back to cluttered and poorly designed interiors. Much like people that go from Apple phones to other brands and can't hang with the poor design of both the OS and phone and go back to Apple (newer Androids are getting better).

Hard to believe the old model BMW 3-series sales fell in the final year of production prior to release of the new BMW G30 3-series. ;-)

It will take years for BMW to catchup to Tesla; design, technology and sales

BMW is making condiments?

The Tesla OS, Autopilot, next-gen Nav, summon, etc., etc.