The Experts Say That Tesla's Sales Will TANK When The Tax Credit Expires — Are They RIGHT Or Soon To Be Proven WRONG?

Tesla sales will tank, not because of credit expiration, but because of competition

They're wrong.

5 seconds of thinking will tell you that this will have a bigger effect on cheapish cars.
So Tesla will be fine.

The removal of the $7,500 tax credit as we all know is a a price increase. While not a tax accountant, at a 22%-24% federal rate the increased cost to a consumer is $1,650-$1,800. On a $50,000 vehicle that would be a price increase of between 3.3%-3.6% or between $46-$50 a month more on a 36 month lease. Viewed another way, the married standard deduction of $24,400 plus the $7,500 tax credit shielded a total of $31,500 in income. Removing the tax credit reduces shielded income by 24% on your return. Will any of this matter to some people, probably not. Will it matter to some others, hell yes.

It's not a $7500 tax deduction, it is a pure credit as long as you owe at least $7500 in taxes. So it's value is literally $7500 to 99% of people that would be buying a new car.

Make that $31,900 in shielded income and a $23.5% reduction. When will this site enable you to correct your own posting like other sites offer?

I don't believe so, there are plenty of wealthy eco-minded folks out there to purchase Elon's wares.

Tesla's biggest advantage is their Supercharger network. No other manufacturer has such an extensive charger network.

Yes, some of buyers may change their mind due to losing the tax credit. Let's see if Tesla gains efficiencies and drops the price a bit or includes more content as a way to make up for the lost credit.

Tesla's sales will tank when other manufacturers get into the ring.

You are a little late - Tesla sales ARE tanking, the result not of lost tax breaks, but because better EVs are hitting the road. To wit : Tesla sales in Norway crashed by 40%, mostly the result of the introduction of the award winning and superior Jaguar I Pace. In Holland the I Pace outsold Tesla Model S and Model X vehicles by nearly two to one. Anyone want to make a guess as to what will happen to Tesla sales in the U.S. when those now gone $7500 tax credits drop in half 6 months from now, while they are in full force for Jaguar buyers? This is not to even mention the dramatic sales numbers being chalked up by Porsche for their Model S killer, the Taycan : two months ago Porsche annnounced that it was doubling its proposed Taycan production due to strong demand, now set to produce roughly 50,000 vehicles its first year, more than either the Model S or Model X. And yesterday they announced that every Porsche produced that year has already been bought (a large number of buyers being Tesla owners!!) and there is still a lengthy waitng list. And the Audi e-tron also announced strong demand and a waiting list. There ARE NO WAITING LISTS for Tesla's biggest money makers, the Model S and Model X. And there are a dozen other competitors that have received excellent reviews and can take on any Tesla EV technolgy - and beat it.

Tesla is rapidly becoming yesterday's news - Porsche Taycan and Jaguar iPace are the "new" new thing for the affluent customers who bought their ONE Tesla because it was cool.

Those short-attention span customers who actually liked the EV experience (based on my 10 affluent friends who have/had Tesla's) I'll observe that about 60% did it for the status and once the novelty wore off and the lease was up, they reverted back to traditional makes - most went to Porsche.

I guess we will all soon find out what the story is...TSLA Earnings Date
Earnings announcement* for TSLA: Feb 06, 2019. Going concern or NOT going concern?

Meanwhile...the Supra has been leaked

I think the leaks for the second gen Supra will be starting up soon

Fun to see a another flaming post war about Tesla, but really you need a microscope to see the sales of BEV's in a 17M unit market like the USA. If there is ever a BEV Ford F150 THAT will be newsworthy as will have the potential to move the market and impact BEV adoption significantly.

PUGPROUD, this is a tax credit not deduction so you receive the full amount, assuming your taxes are greater than this amount. Not sure if you can carry over any excess amount.

The effect of losing this could be dramatic if there was a competitive alternative.

tesla is relevant only on the internet

Precisely.

Meanwhile, Hyundai has a Kona Electric coming:

The Kona is rated by the EPA to travel 258 miles on a single charge and it is priced at $37,495—or $29,995 once you factor in the $7,500 federal tax credit.

California gets additional $2500 rebate thru CVRP.
Edison customers gets another $1000 starting Jan 1, 2019

https://www.automobilemag.com/news/2019-hyundai-kona-electric-review-ev/

We don't have to guess. In other markets where the tax incentive have ended Tesla sales tanked.

The tax credits for Tesla's high profit models will mean absolutely nothing in the long run. Tesla's sales will become affected in a much more serious way as soon as the boys from Wolfsburg and Munich begin selling EV's in earnest on a large scale.(And then GM) That time is coming this year when VW begins selling its too more affordable EV's. Further competitors are already starting to catch up with more powerful and longer range batteries. Hyundai with its Kona EV already has a 250 mile range. My prediction Tesla will be bought out by a large auto company and will be part of their EV auto line up. Musk ultimately sell his stake in the company to focus on tunnel boring, Spacex or some other world saving endeavor he deems he must get into. My sense is he will move to get out as soon as he sees the competition come on line wit multiple EV's. he will resign from the board. The remaining Tesla board will seek a buyer for the company. That's my prediction.

No facts needed?
How can he resign from the board if he is not part of it?

We'll find out very soon what will happen. I'm predicting either a price drop or some new functionality announcements this month. Alternatively they could do nothing and ship all of their product to Europe and Asia where not a single Model 3 has been sold so far. They could probably do this for quite some time until lower cost models are available for the US.