How Long Until Electric Vehicles Start Affecting The Oil Industry?

The past year was historic for the electric car industry. In 2018, the Tesla Model 3, a car aptly dubbed by Elon Musk as a “bet-the-company” project, proved its naysayers wrong by establishing itself as the United States’ best-selling luxury vehicle with sales of 145,846 units over the year. That’s far above the sales of the next car on the list — the Lexus RX, which sold 111,641 units in 2018.

Amidst the ongoing EV revolution is the potential of a notable shift in the mindset of car buyers. With options like the Model 3 on the market, people that are shopping for cars are no longer limited to vehicles that are equipped with internal combustion engines. Gone are the days when electric cars were short-range and unappealing. With the Model 3, Tesla was able to offer a vehicle that is reasonably priced (especially in the case of the Mid Range variant), attractive, and still loaded with advanced features.

This has not gone unnoticed by one of Wall Street’s noted oil analysts, Stephen Schork. In an appearance at Fox Business, Schork, who is a veteran in the world of commodity and derivatives trading, pointed that the emergence of electric cars could very well be affecting the oil industry.

skytop - 1/14/2019 1:44:32 PM

0 Boost

More oil is burned by power plants to recharge the EV.

EV's are basically a fraud.

SanJoseDriver - 1/14/2019 2:11:05 PM

-3 Boost

That's 100% false information. Even a coal-burning plant uses less energy to charge an EV than if that same car had an ICE powertrain.

zlives - 1/14/2019 5:34:05 PM

-1 Boost

you can tell how wrong you are by seeing a +ive number by SJD's vote count

CANADIANCOMMENTS - 1/14/2019 2:17:33 PM

-1 Boost

And more coal plants in the USA have been shut down in the last 2 years than in the last 8. But let's get back on topic. In short, it will be a while until BEV car sales start to impact oil prices (lower demand for gasoline). Pressure will likely be felt in China's oil demand first as they seem very focused on getting 10m BEV's on the road and having a local BEV auto industry. In the USA where 17m vehicles are sold each year, it could be 10 years, even 20 years before you see something measurable from BEV sales reducing demand for gasoline.

Truthy - 1/14/2019 4:08:09 PM

+4 Boost

Over 81 million cars were sold globally last year. Total EV sales were just about 1/3 of a percent of the total. Higher fleet MOG requirements do more to reduce oil consumption. So it will be decades before EVs have any noticible impact.

Truthy - 1/14/2019 4:08:48 PM

+1 Boost

*MPG requirements...

Truthy - 1/14/2019 4:14:13 PM

+1 Boost

SanJoseDriver, how much less energy is used over mile in an EV vs an ICE? Keep in mind roughly a third of electrical energy is lost to resistance as it travels via wires from the source to your car. Please cite a source other that EV Now or Teslarati as they are obviously biased.

zlives - 1/14/2019 5:38:33 PM

0 Boost

damn you, you are making me defend SJD.
The question here is irrelevant, though i have no idea what it takes to start from 0mph-0mph over 1 mile in total energy usage between ICE vs BEV, the source of energy and the efficiency in production ( even in case of oil) has been proven repeatedly.

valhallakey - 1/14/2019 4:46:01 PM

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I predict that EVs will start having an impact sooner than most people expect. I would say within 5-7 years EVs will outpace ICE in large parts of Europe and will make up maybe 25-35% of the cars sold in the US. With China on their crusade for electrify a large part of their car market. In addition the manufacturers are going to be rolling out a lot of new choices for the buyers. A significant impact by 7 years. Significant meaning something over 5%.

ricks0me - 1/14/2019 6:23:58 PM

+1 Boost

Unfortunately, I agree with valhallakey. I do not think our grid can handle this.

MDarringer - 1/14/2019 6:44:16 PM

+2 Boost

The grid CANNOT handle the sheer number of EVs planned and that data is very easy to find.

PUGPROUD - 1/14/2019 7:18:34 PM

+2 Boost

The more Ev's the more cheap gasoline for us petrol heads, pickups and muscle car enthusiasts.

ricks0me - 1/15/2019 6:03:18 AM

+1 Boost

I hope PUGPROUD is correct

Foncool - 1/16/2019 7:50:02 AM

+1 Boost

Forget what it will do to the oil industry, that is nothing compared what would/will happen to State budgets with the loss of taxes on gasoline etc. You didn’t think that Governments weren’t going to find new areas to tax to make up that lost revenue did you?

Look at the land of Fruits and Nuts also known California, they have already begun overtaxing their legal marijuana industry to the point where the black market is creeping back in, now they are considering a water tax. Expect to see things like mileage, time taxes etc.