Has The Hybrid Time Come and Gone?

October was a tough month for hybrid vehicles in the United States. Sales were down almost 20% from last month, and hybrids accounted for only 1.5% of sold vehicles— compared to a high of 1.8% last August. But before we start writing an obituary for hybrids, we should consider that October was a down month throughout the auto industry: sales of all types of vehicles fell by 10% in October. In the broader context, things look more promising for hybrids. Sales are up 10% compared to October 2005, and the growth in hybrid sales remains well above the growth rate of the overall vehicle market.

Two factors may have affected some hybrid shoppers this October. First, gas prices continued their four-month-long decline, falling to an average of $2.29 per gallon in October. Second, tax credits for buyers of Toyota hybrids were halved this month, a change that remains in effect until April 2007, when credits for Toyota vehicles will be reduced further.

Undoubtedly, one or both of these changes in the economics of the hybrid purchase turned off some potential buyers. But neither offers a complete explanation for October's sales numbers. Gas prices matter, but our analysis shows only a moderate correlation between monthly hybrid sales and gas prices. (The correlation weakens considerably for big-sellers like the Toyota Prius.) Nor are tax credits the raison d'etre for many hybrid purchases. Some Toyota hybrids experienced 30% sales drops this month, but the Prius (which offers the largest tax incentive relative to purchase price) saw a much lower decline.

What matters to many hybrid buyers—particularly those who are sustaining sales of the Prius—has little to do with cost savings. Research shows that hybrids stand for bigger ideas, including preserving the environment, gaining independence from oil companies and foreign oil-producing regimes, and being savvy about the latest technology. The more efficient a hybrid is relative to conventional vehicles, the more strongly it connects with these ideas. Thus, high-efficiency, high-mileage vehicles like the Toyota Prius, Toyota Camry, and Honda Civic are selling at the highest volumes—regardless of gas prices. In contrast, lower-mileage, performance-oriented hybrids like the Honda Accord and Lexus RX 400h are selling at lower volumes, and have seen substantial sales declines from 2005 levels.



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audiot - 11/8/2006 12:00:56 PM

+6 Boost

The fact that this question can even be seriously raised is its own answer. Yes. Most automakers have already passed on investing heavily in hybrid tech, because they know it is a stop-gap solution that doesn't return the investment it promises. Certain carmakers, and car fans, have more emotionally invested in hybrid than then average driver will see monetarily, which is why hybrid tech is in middle-phase and ready to be knocked out by a more permanent and cost effective gas-saving method.

mitchatlexusofmarin - 11/8/2006 12:28:15 PM

-1 Boost

It is certainly not over for Lexus.

jeffy210 - 11/8/2006 12:33:28 PM

+2 Boost

damn it, can someone boost audiot. I accidentally clicked the wrong arrow and it doesn't look like there is a way to undo it. I thoroughly agree with his view.

audiot - 11/8/2006 1:18:54 PM

+2 Boost

"Will"-co, no-nothings like Carlos Goshn and Bernd Pischetsrieder have made the comments in the 1st post above panning hybrid technology. There has been a lot written about hybrid and unless there is a global conspiracy of information, the views are out there.

As I said in my 1st post, a lot of people have heavy emotional attachment to hybrid tech. The emotions are irrationally placed. We don't share your excitement for hybrids, or hybrid potential, because the numbers do not add up. That's the only reason.

Hybrid is like Betamax. A good idea, but flawed and eventually supplanted once VHS and DVD arrives.

audiot - 11/8/2006 7:20:15 PM

-3 Boost

Huh? Carlos Goshn is a politician?

audiot - 11/8/2006 9:00:56 PM

-3 Boost

"Politicians disagree all the time."

Your grasp of English writing concepts is not strong. You were not clear whether the car executives were the politicians, given their policy statements about hybrids, or whether you were calling us politicians, for some unknown reason. Either way, you failed to make a connection, even after I read it twice more.

You're not building a case for the great intelligence that you seem to infer that you have, given the haughty inside tone of your comment.

In other words, f-you.

audiot - 11/8/2006 9:28:43 PM

-1 Boost

I am back in my cage, clinging to my wire mother.

quizz - 11/8/2006 1:10:21 PM

-2 Boost

Why buy a hybrid now when a diesel does as a good job without the battery/performance compromises?

Maybe in 5 years a hybrid will be the better buy, but make mine diesel today.

2JZSoarer - 11/8/2006 9:02:30 PM

+4 Boost

Hybrid's emission are much low than diesels thats why,
and if you live in the Los Angeles area smog is a big problem!!!

S4cabriofox - 11/8/2006 10:29:28 PM

-3 Boost

Yes... but I don't, and I don't give two $hits about getting good mileage... I'd rather have a smile on my face when I get home from work every day than have a little smiley in my checkbook because I saved $5 at the pump.

SSP350 - 11/8/2006 1:15:19 PM

+4 Boost

Hybrid's is just the beginning. Just like everything else, the technology will advance even further -- bigger power outputs with smaller units. Whether you like it or not the technology is here to stay. Even if Hybrid's doesn't save a lot of gas, its potential for power output is huge. To be able to get high horsepower without sacrificing gas mileage, to me, its a big ordeal.

XYZZ - 11/9/2006 4:04:29 AM

+4 Boost

even fuel cell cars (IF it ever becomes economically viable), will be PIGGYBACKING on electric motor technology whose advances are being boosted by current hybrids.

1970toyotamarc - 11/8/2006 1:57:38 PM

+5 Boost

Completely misleading headline.
As the article points out, hybrids were down as the whole industry was down. And based on tax credits, hybrids can expect to sell better in the new year.
Further, this generation of hybrids is winding down, and the next generation is in development. As cars end their lifecycles, they typically sell less. This is no exception. Further, now that the election is over, expect gas prices to begin their upward climb again.

audiot - 11/8/2006 5:33:09 PM

-1 Boost

If someone wants to pay for an adaptive air suspension, a navigation system, a premium stereo, or a hybrid powertrain, that's definitely their business. These are expensive options that have value for some people.

S4cabriofox - 11/8/2006 10:30:48 PM

0 Boost

No, BMW is already out with a 7 Series HYDROGEN. There are fifty being built worldwide; 25 go to some rich folks in the US. They have 260hp V12s (hydrogen needs some work, yes), go from 0-60 in about 8.3 seconds and cost well over $100K.

UPshift - 11/8/2006 4:51:05 PM

0 Boost

Hybrids seem to be overcomplicated solutions to simple problems. Diesel technology and biofuels are a smarter investment.

Once the refining process of biofuels such as Ethanol is ironed out and made more cost-effective, it could easily rise to the top. One pitfall to that is the ultra high octane of the fuel returns lower milage figures. Even with that in consideration, a renewable resource such as E-85 or E100 would stabilize prices for long periods, unlike unstable petroleum, and may offer long-term cost benefits for the consumer.

I mean, would you want to shoulder the repair costs of a 10-year old hybrid with its expensive drivetrain bits? I wonder how that would affect the used car market after they've been around a while.

UPshift - 11/8/2006 9:30:12 PM

0 Boost

I have nothing personal against hybrids (although the Prius is a little homely looking).

I'm just saying hybrids are not cost effective for manufacturers to build, will dissolve on the 2nd tier used market due to their complexity, and drive the corporate bottom line prices up across the line to keep them afloat.

Biofuels and diesels are a much more conventional alternative and cheaper to produce.

audiot - 11/8/2006 9:03:41 PM

-3 Boost

The Germans have made a strategic decision to ride out the hybrid trend. Take a look at profits. They aren't doing badly by letting Toyota do all the heavy lifting here.

News flash to the uninitiated: hybrid vehicles require gasoline to run. If there is a serious gas crisis, hybrid vehicles will be just as affected as non-hybrid cars. The only thing a hybrid vehicle can claim with any certainty is that it offers fewer emissions.

XYZZ - 11/9/2006 4:13:27 AM

+5 Boost

with the Plug-in Hybrids soon to come, the owner can go for WEEKS (or even longer) WITHOUT BURNING A SINGLE DROP OF GAS.

XYZZ - 11/9/2006 4:13:28 AM

+5 Boost

with the Plug-in Hybrids soon to come, the owner can go for WEEKS (or even longer) WITHOUT BURNING A SINGLE DROP OF GAS.

bigslick83 - 11/8/2006 9:19:59 PM

-2 Boost

this thing reminds me of the whole vcr vs beta back in the old days. sure vcr's were the inferior way to go but they were advertised and marketed better than beta so they took the strong hold in the market and the other phased away. this is like hybrids in america and desiels in europe. car makers make desiels with europeans in mind and hybrinds for the american liberal.


now heres where im a little confused. i thought people bought hybrids because they were worried about the enviornment and global warming and all that hype. now we see with the declining price of fuel, declining hybrind sales. really they didnt care they were just greedy bastards that wanted to save a buck at the pump. i pity you ...

UPshift - 11/8/2006 9:26:14 PM

-1 Boost

Unfortunately, that sounds about right. Hybrids are expensive non-cost effective technology that will be useless and very costly to repair in 10 years. Only after the gas prices shot up drastically did anyone care about hybrids other than a few Hollywood types and such.

BTW, I guess our new Beta vs. VHS is HD DVD vs. Blu-Ray.

audiot - 11/9/2006 1:23:24 AM

-3 Boost

All of this Eden crap you're spouting costs money, about $2-10k over a gas-only car. Even you should be able to understand this great trade-off for the average car buyer. If it were free, we wouldn't have a conversation.

XYZZ - 11/9/2006 4:18:30 AM

+5 Boost

well, it's NOT as if the diesel option over gas is FREE either!

XYZZ - 11/9/2006 7:09:42 AM

+5 Boost

while it's true it has cost toyota and honda umpteen zillions of yen to develop the hybrids, in the early years THEY were eating the costs, and SUBSIDIZING the buyers.

what buyer can bitch about that?

and, as what goes around comes around, toyota's beneficent largess is now earning the appropriate karmic reward: RECORD earnings and profits.

so WHO really has any legitimate gripe against hybrids? other than than jealous and ignorant haters?

audiot - 11/9/2006 11:19:04 AM

-4 Boost

The expense I was citing was sticker price, which is a real factor in hybrid technology's time "coming and going," as this post's title states. There is nothing to hate about hybrids. It's just expensive, and therefore counter-productive for saving money. That's it.

audiot - 11/9/2006 1:27:04 PM

-4 Boost

Sales figures will dictate whether hybrid's time has come and gone. So far, with the MSRP+ pricing and extra expense, hybrid is a bust vs. the hype. If you love spending money for a 5-6 year payback, you're a patient guy. Enjoy that 2006 Camry Hybrid in 2014 when it pays for itself!

1970toyotamarc - 11/9/2006 3:11:48 PM

+6 Boost

"Enjoy that 2006 Camry Hybrid in 2014 when it pays for itself!"

Or enjoy the cleaner emissions, good power, and high quality workmanship everyday. For a pretty decent price, I might add.

1970toyotamarc - 11/9/2006 3:12:48 PM

+6 Boost

And then enjoy the high resale value when you trade it in.

Homer008 - 11/9/2006 7:13:23 AM

+4 Boost

There was an article about a hybrid, a few months ago in here...I believe it was called "Tesla". Tesla was an hybrid car that goes 0-60 in around 4-5 seconds while maintaining a healthy 100mpg!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This "Tesla" car cameout of absolutely nowhere..much like Bill Gates and Steve Jobs back in the 80's.

Small car builders ie "Tesla" and MIT dropout teens (I'll write this claim with my blood) eventually hit the jackpot inside their parent's garage at the least expected place and time..and that my friends..is when you'll realize that all these Anti-hybrid turds will again realize we've been right all alone.

Anti-hybrid rhetoric must stop because its simply WRONG.

oh, btw..Honda Insight is making a comeback! Autospies are taking a nap again :)


Sheepdog

Homer008 - 11/9/2006 7:23:04 AM

+4 Boost

Another thing about hybrids...

Yes, Germans (all of them including yes, your adorable MB too) are coming out with a hybrid. All of them. I don't give a shit what excuse some fake hybrid haters will post on here..as to why this is happening...and of course bring up the issue of Diesels and Dialithium crystals from star trek Enterprise crap..but let's get real here, folks.

1) Hybrid is here to stay.
2) Hybrid will expand.
3) Hybrid will improve.
4) An Unknown Pimple ridden 16 years old kid will accidently build a hybrid go-cart from his daddy's garage and say "I'll name it .. Big Blue? nah..Apple..??" you get the idea..heck, the Wright brothers built a first flyable airplane from a bicycle shop and only 100 years later we now have supersonic jets to Boing 747!

The hybrid car is exactly same damn thing. Only thing you have realize is that..if we want something to be built, it'll happen if given time.

sheepdog

Homer008 - 11/9/2006 7:26:29 AM

+4 Boost

Another thing..If you are a Anti-hybrid or Does not Believe that a hybrid has no potential, go ahead and post all your little commments, NOW!!!!!!!!!!

I'M WAITING.....

Homer008 - 11/9/2006 7:34:02 AM

+2 Boost

Another thing...
Tesla Roadster..(most of you hybrid/elctric car haters are probably saying..Tesla??? what is that? a rock group?) Yes, it was also the name of a rock group but..here are some datas to go with car not the band.
1) 100%
2) 0-60 in about 4 seconds! whooo wheeeeeeee it flies!
3) 135 mpg! More of these to come, I guarantee it.
4) 250 miles per charge or penny a mile.

You and I look at these numbers and are impressed right?? Ha ha...wait just a few more years...patience patience...

Still waiting on the posts....waiting....

Homer008 - 11/9/2006 7:37:14 AM

+2 Boost

typo

1) 100% electric

bigslick83 - 11/9/2006 10:44:08 AM

-4 Boost

um...nicehomer your comparing a 100% electric car to a hybrid car. you point out all the good things about the electric car, and try to focus on those to prove your point about hybrids. if the engine is 100% electric then why do you talk about the fuel economy? i think you have some mis-information. and while i dont think many people HATE hybrids, i do think that they are a waste of time and holding up companys from spending money to make the real futre product, whatever that may be. hybrids are just like the nasty hard candy around the chocolete in a tootsie roll pop. you have to get through them to get the advancments to get to the good stuff.

Rupert - 11/9/2006 11:29:18 AM

+3 Boost

bigslick, it is the equivalent fuel economy based on electricity prices.

Homer008 - 11/9/2006 11:40:30 AM

+4 Boost

My commentaries are very straight forward response to the subject's title: Has the hybrid time has come and gone?
My response was basically, that hybrids have
POTENTIAL.
You are correct for my mistake in regards to the mpg for TESLA..it should have said "Fully Charged ??? "

You my friend, tell me what the real future product is? You can give my hype about Diesels and Dialithium Crystals but fact is that hybrid is here and now..and EVOLVING. Do you not see that? Take off your hannibal Lector's mask and let's get real for once..I have NOT READ A SINGLE thread where it makes me think for once...hmmm perhaps Hybrids are perhaps waste...NOT ONCE!

I'm still waiting for your posts..Give me 1 reason why you or anyone in here thinks we should give up on hybrid technology.....

I'm waiting....

audiot - 11/9/2006 11:40:36 AM

-4 Boost

What's there to hate about a hybrid? It's just an expensive option that lots of people aren't willing to pay for. That's a fact. Not an emotion.

Homer008 - 11/9/2006 11:54:05 AM

+2 Boost

Fact #1: Are hybrid's prices have steadly dropped. The weight is getting lighter and battery is becoming smaller. Miles per charge or in case of hybrids..mpg are also increasing as we'll soon see on the 2nd generation Honda Insight looms overhead..and others.

Fact #2: You claim people aren't willing to pay for? Not true..People love Hybrids for getting upto 60mpg in the city (realistic number is probably around 50mgp, guessing) and still on the waiting lists for some..So You are 100% Wrong bud. That's a fact. Not an emotion.

audiot - 11/9/2006 1:35:13 PM

-4 Boost

"People love Hybrids for getting up to 60mpg in the city"

What people? 5? 500? That's not very factual of you. Just your emotional argument again.

Homer008 - 11/9/2006 1:50:44 PM

+5 Boost

I will stop responding to you Ms.audiot b/c you just want a cat-fighting here..

IM WAITING ON SOMEONE TO TELL ME THIS:

WHY SHOULD WE NOT DEVEOLOP A HYBRID TECHNOLOGY!!! Its that simple. I want someone to convince me, why don't we just quit and we all focus on a Diesels or Dialithium Crystals?

I'm waiting....

sheepdog

audiot - 11/9/2006 11:59:36 PM

0 Boost

That wasn't the focus of this post, "why should we not develop hybrid technology" (nice English, btw). I won't insult you by typing out what it says at the top of your browser window.

Homer008 - 11/9/2006 11:45:31 AM

+4 Boost

Someone keeps - Boosting my posts..

Shit, Like I care..I got kicked off Autospies.com 4 times in lessthan a single year....Please don't try to tickle my left nuts w/that -+ Boost bullshit, thank you.

Rupert - 11/9/2006 6:06:03 PM

-1 Boost

what names did you have before?
and do you think a reason you got kicked off was your language?

Homer008 - 11/9/2006 2:15:39 PM

+4 Boost

WHY AM I KEEP HEARING CRICKETS, DAMMIT!

answer - 11/9/2006 6:45:37 PM

+2 Boost

Yeah, hybrid technology is stupid. We should pass on that and wait till hydrogen takes off.

Wait. Forget that hydrogen stuff. What we need is cold fusion reactors in our cars. Now.

Screw all this in-between technology crap that just reduces emissions and consumes less fuel.

Homer008 - 11/9/2006 10:33:14 PM

+1 Boost

So what I have is following:

1) hybrid technology is stupid.
2) wait til hydrogen takes off
3) Screw cars
4) need hovercrafts that run on cryptonite
5) It's just an expensive option
6) hybrids are just like the nasty hard candy around the chocolete in a tootsie roll pop.
7) i do think that they are a waste of time

All these very intelligent comments are comprised of hybrid haters.

Enough said.

audiot - 11/10/2006 12:02:44 AM

-1 Boost

1) it is currently an expensive option that does not pay for itself
2) it may be supplanted by better options before it finds its way into every car
3) it's a good idea that hopefully will become a real cost-effective technology that proves itself by hard figures and not its rabid fan-base.

XYZZ - 11/10/2006 5:02:08 AM

+3 Boost

"it is currently an expensive option that does not pay for itself."

NOT true.

consumer reports did an extensive study earlier this year, to find out exactly how long the "payback" period was.

initially, they said 3 years. however, they had used a faulty figure on trade-in value (from another source), so that had to be revised.
further, the comparison was made between the Prius and the Corolla. many have pointed out, the prius was more comparable to the Camry.

i revised the CR table of costs, substituting the camry. as there are several trim levels, i simply took the 1/2 way point bet'n the cheapest and most expensive camry.

the payback period was consequently CONSIDERABLY shorter.

when you further added the fed. tax credit (since reduced by 50%), the payback period became NEGATIVE. i.e., you were AHEAD from the START.

all the ADDITIONAL savings, whether 1 year, 3 years, 5 years or whatever, WERE ADDITIONAL GRAVY. SAVINGS not only STARTED FROM DAY ONE, but with the tax credit, you even got an effective REBATE.

apparently, enuff people became aware of this that it wasn't long before toyota moved 60,000 hybrids. which means the tax credits are only 50% now. so no more "rebates," but there is still a far shorter payback period than most think.

audiot - 11/10/2006 11:34:54 AM

+1 Boost

Alex, thanks for providing some hard data to back up the stance that hybrids pay for themselves. I'm not convinced, still, but do appreciate hearing that even hybrid fans know there is a "payback period."

One wonders what the MSRP situation is with a Camry hybrid. Are there still mark-ups? A $1,000+ markup on a hybrid vehicle makes the payback period that much farther away.

I don't hate hybrids. I just don't want to spend my money simply to reduce global emissions while paying thousands more in the process. I just can't afford it. But I would welcome the news that hybrids are just the same price as a gas-only car. Who wouldn't.

audiot - 11/10/2006 1:17:20 PM

0 Boost

Hybrid tech is supposed to save gas for the average person. It's not a high-end tuning division. Toyota would be happy to make it the lowest-possible price.

Your analogy makes absolutely no sense. If you want to show me up, read my comment and then outdo it. You are grasping at straws. I really don't think you're as dumb as you're sounding.

audiot - 11/10/2006 4:42:39 PM

+1 Boost

We're saying 2 different things. Yes, currently hybrid cars are justifiably more expensive given the technology. At the same time, Toyota and others are working to make hybrid cars more affordable than they currently are. Everyone has their price they'll pay for this technology. For some, that time is now. For others, like me, the price will need to come down. You're obviously sold on hybrids as they stand. I'm not. There are points to be made on either side. The focus of this post was, has hybrid's opportunity to dominate come and gone. No one knows, but we obviously fall on different sides as to the speculation. I'm not an idiot for anything I've posted here, and have not said hybrids make no sense to anyone. I'm simply waiting for the payback period to be shortened considerably before shopping hybrid. You're definitely out for blood, though. Here. Have some!!