If Sales Are In The Tank For Tesla, What Hope Is There For ANY Upcoming Competitor’s Models?

If Sales Are In The Tank For Tesla, What Hope Is There For ANY Upcoming Competitor’s Models?
Today wasn't a good day for Tesla or stockholders holding shares. The company badly missed expectations on deliveries and the world panicked.

And then of course when that happens the stock goes in the gutter.

Sharp, radical volatility is nothing new for Tesla shares.

But it got me thinking about what is happening.

I don't have all the answers, but I do think I have a history of knowing where a market is going or if a product is a winner or a loser.

I hear the calls from the bleachers...

"So tell us oh esteemed number one...what does this blip mean to you?"

Let me first make a disclaimer. I don't own a Tesla, won't be buying one anytime soon and don't receive any ad dollars from Tesla. But I like dreamers like Musk. I think the S and the 3 are attractive and if I WERE to go electric, I'd buy a Tesla. I agree with Bob Lutz, the Model X looks like a loaf of white bread. But I GET why people like it.

1. Tesla stock will come back and I will probably buy tomorrow am. It always does and MOST of the media (which we all know has a heavy liberal bias) WANTS Elon to win and for electrified cars to reach critical mass in the USA and around the world.

2. An even MORE important slice of wisdom I'm seeing out of this is that....wait for it....something we've said for a long time that the mainstream media REFUSES to acknowledge. The market and pool of buyers who REALLY want electric cars is still INCREDIBLY small and until battery tech has a revolutionary change in both cost and capacity, we are ion's away from these cars being more than 1/2% of the market.

3. Tesla has the market cornered on this market and 95% of the people who will want an electric car will ONLY want a Tesla. These pipe dreamers in Europe who think they have even a CHANCE of success in this market are DELUSIONAL and they will ALL fail against Elon. Example, Jaguar i-Pace. Got get yours right now for a huge discount AND ZERO PERCENT financing. I've seen ONE driving in SoCal since the release of the car. That's NOT a great sign. READ MY LIPS. THE DEMAND JUST ISN'T THERE NO MATTER HOW MUCH YOU WANT IT TO BE.

4. I still don't know WHY ON EARTH companies like Porsche are developing electric SEDANS when the only thing selling outside of their 911 are SUV'S! The world has announce the DEATH of the sedan and you're trying to get people to buy into the hype that in a year or TWO, you'll FINALLY have a Model S competitor that won't beat Tesla's range and tech interface? WHAT, could go wrong there?!

5. NO European or Asian company will BEAT an American company like Tesla in the tech world. JSUT NOT GONNA HAPPEN.

So, in closing...call your financial advisor in the AM and if they say take a risk BUY TESLA. And then on a couple months, you can thank me in the comments.

Spies...Am I RIGHT ON here or do you DOUBT THE GREAT AND POWERFUL 001?!

Discuss...










SanJoseDriverSanJoseDriver - 4/5/2019 12:58:21 AM
-5 Boost
I am disappointed with the quarterly sales, especially the S/X. Year over year, it is still something like a 110% improvement in car sales, but the drop q over q was bad. Q1 is historically a bad quarter for car sales and the federal incentive was cut in half. Even then, I thought the drop would be more subtle, especially given the deliveries to Europe/China. I don't think they were logistically prepared for the international expansion and probably should have been shipping more cars last year overseas to work out the kinks before mass deliveries.

Now is probably a great time to get stock. Q2 starts with an extra half billion dollars worth of inventory in transit and they will probably get their Sh** together by the end of the quarter and not have as many "in transit" vehicles. The $35k model will be available this Q and there is a compelling buying event since the federal subsidy drops $1800 again at the end of the quarter.

Also, the next version of Autopilot is rolling out now (my Model 3 is literally upgrading right now). It allows lane changes for moving between freeways and passing slow cars without confirmation--which is significantly more advanced than anything else out there. On April 19th there will be an event in Silicon Valley showing off AP3.0, a brand new CPU that is 10x more powerful and enable truly autonomous driving without the driver having to pay attention. I'm hoping to attend and test it out. I did buy the full self driving option, so will be one of the first to get the upgraded cpu on the car.

Q1 sucked, but Q2 will almost definitely be better.





TruthyTruthy - 4/5/2019 8:21:58 AM
+4 Boost
Quarter 2 will be better, however you mentioned another "demand lever" which is the federal incentive disappearing. This artificially pulls sales forward, but it does not change the overall demand. Analysts are noticing the demand is not waht it needs to be to make Tesla a viable business. Add to this the capital needed to refresh old models, ramp up new ones, warranty costs, expected insurance increases, Carbon gas credits disappearing and the outlook is not good.
All of this is why traditional automakers have steeped in cautiously into this market.


SanJoseDriverSanJoseDriver - 4/5/2019 1:33:34 PM
-1 Boost
I think a lot of people are starting to see the benefits of EVs... better performance, lower maintenance, OTA updates, and eventually lower costs. I think with no incentives they will eventually take over and all manufacturers except for Toyota agree.

Autonomy is the next step which will again reduce transportation costs, give people back productive time on commutes, and save a lot of lives.

I think at some point the adoption curves of those will intersect and most cars built will be both EVs and AVs. This has nothing to do with politics or propaganda, both technologies will eventually make people's lives better.

If you are concerned about privacy, I'm guessing you already forgot that you are carrying around a tracking device with cameras and all your communications with you everywhere you go.


TruthyTruthy - 4/5/2019 5:52:48 PM
+1 Boost
SJD, "and eventually lower costs." This is quite an assumption. Most vehicles that offer both an ICE and and EV version the EV costs twice as much. The batteries and technology are expesive. In markets where tax incentives end the market dries up. Not included in this is the carbon gas credits tesla sells to other automakers, mostly FCA and MB. This is a huge source of revenue for Tesla that will likely end by the end of 2019. Add to this the raw materials are more likely to increase in price - supply and demand and limited supply - along with China's near control of this market as FAQMD mentions, it will be a long, long time before EVs have even cost parity with ICE.
Plus EVs lose a lot of range in cold weather. The ICE is with us for a long time.


SanJoseDriverSanJoseDriver - 4/7/2019 11:11:44 PM
+1 Boost
@FAQMD - You're right. I think that's important to share all the counter-perspectives. Also, please tell me you watch Black Mirror, you would probably love that show (it scares the crap out of me).

@Truthy - Most manufactures play a lot of lip service to going the EV route, but know it will decimate their ICE sales when they do. The transition period will be rough for most, but eventually it will be a no brainer. I would argue the $37k Model 3 is the best car you can get at that price with no incentives. One of my coworkers just got one and it is near identical to what was $46k last year minus 20 miles of range. Now, I don't know how much profit Tesla is making off the $37k version, but I'm guessing it is low. This will force other companies to compete...

BTW, despite all of our back and forth on crashing sales, the Model 3 was 60% of all US EVs sold in Q1. That should be pretty scary to traditional automakers trying to get into the market.


runninglogan1runninglogan1 - 4/5/2019 4:11:52 AM
-2 Boost
You're right 001. When it comes to electric, Tesla is the only game in town.

The Taycan will do well - maybe 40k per year if they hit it out of the ballpark. Still only a blip compared to Tesla sales.

I bought some TSLA too. Get ready to make some $$$.

BTW, what's up with these hacking attacks? You guys need to get a handle on it.


TruthyTruthy - 4/5/2019 11:21:13 AM
+1 Boost
Only buy Tesla stock in the near term if you are shorting it. Analysts are lowering the target price for this year to $200/share. One has it at $180 for an abundance of reasons.


SanJoseDriverSanJoseDriver - 4/7/2019 11:13:26 PM
+1 Boost
The Leaf sold 2,685 units in Q1 in the US, the Model 3 sold 24,003.


TomMTomM - 4/5/2019 5:01:22 AM
+5 Boost
Sorry 001 - but YOU are not correct

And it has to do with your statement that most people will not want a different EV, they will want a TEsla. ANd that is absolutely against what the markets of pseudo Luxury goods have shown over the years.

The fact is - one part of owning a higher priced car - is Exclusivity. A Rolls Owner takes comfort is knowing that it is highly unlikely that he will see a Phantom in every driveway. In the USA - where Tesla sales are predominant - people will be looking for the next NEW model - and they always did with OTHER cars.



In Other countries - since Tesla was not generally available around the world in volume - there is NO allegiance to Tesla - and they are more likely NOT TO BUY AMerican, and they will simply purchase the local brands. THis is especially true in Japan and Europe where American Brands are actually SHUNNED. THAT is also because the Sales method Tesla has chosen is simply not in line with what people believe is the way they buy cars - ie - through dealers.

And it is THAT fact - that Local dealers will be selling to the market they know - that Tesla is WAY WAY BEHIND in all markets. People accustomed to buying through dealers that COMPETE on price - which Tesla Does not currently - will be put off by the heavy handedness of the Tesla Sales model.

THe real question - however - is WHY did sales dip. IF it is because the demand for EVS has been saturated to date - and that there is no real pent up demand for them. In that case - the other brands WILL compete on price - where Tesla doesn't. WHo is going to get the sale? - This also means that the market WILL then be fragmented by the cars coming online and splitting the current share means that VERY HIGHLY leveraged company like Tesla simply will not have enough people to sell cars to - and Goodbye Tesla. THAT is the big question - Just how many people WILL but EVs - it is 5% of the market - is it 10% of the market.

However - you are correct about the price of the shares - it will rebound some and for a while - but when other mass produced EVS are readily available - depend on it to go south.


qwertyfla1qwertyfla1 - 4/5/2019 7:16:56 AM
+4 Boost
Hey what is with the fire in the picture? Is that another Tesla battery lighting up for a third time or is it the stock price burning up -so confusing???

I'm not a gambler anymore(I'm a sore loser) but Vegas odds don't look good for TSLA long term and I think Porsche and the other big dog OEMs are going to have Tesla's breakfast, lunch and dinner minus all the ridiculous PR stunts and PT Barnum theatricals.

The electric car market is a small niche market and TSLA doesn't have the capital resources, product pipeline or leadership to play the long game and survive the mainstream transition timeline. TSLA is the Pioneer but like actual Pioneers they always do all the heavy lifting and get killed off only to have the second wave come along to mop up and enjoy the spoils. Tesla will be no different.


mre30mre30 - 4/5/2019 8:11:15 AM
+4 Boost
001 is correct...

"The market and pool of buyers who REALLY want electric cars is still INCREDIBLY small and until battery tech has a revolutionary change in both cost and capacity, we are ion's away from these cars being more than 1/2% of the market."

Tesla is still a novelty product, nothing more, nothing less. We are rapidly reaching the point where everybody who wanted one, got theirs, and has moved onto something else.

Prediction - sales will keep withering.

#Enron2.0


MDarringerMDarringer - 4/5/2019 8:14:58 AM
+2 Boost
To believe this: "5. NO European or Asian company will BEAT an American company like Tesla in the tech world. JSUT NOT GONNA HAPPEN." is asinine. The Germans and the Japanese in particular have routinely demonstrated their engineering prowess.


TruthyTruthy - 4/5/2019 8:39:27 AM
+4 Boost
Agent001, your assumptions are flawed. The vast majority of people may want an electric car, where is your data? and even if this is true, at what costs? Lots of people want to live in a large home and drive a luxury car too. As of now, electric cars on a mass scale are not viable. Tesla only exist due to generous tax incentives, the ability to sell carbon gas credits ( a huge source of revenue that is drying up this year) and the irrational exhuberance of investors.
Electric cars are too expensive compared to similiar ICE. None of the technology Tesla uses is unique. It is all available to other automakers. They have not jumped into the market due to concerns about the profitability with current technoogy. The problem with Elon is his assumption (or con, depending on your point of view) of forever growth of demand.
It seems most Tesla supporters are smug. We are smarter than you for buying one and Elon is smarter than all the other automakers.
And don't blame the messenger. This seems to be popular to blame the MSM when they don;t say what you believe.


atc98092atc98092 - 4/5/2019 8:50:07 AM
+5 Boost
"Tesla has the market cornered on this market and 95% of the people who will want an electric car will ONLY want a Tesla."

I don't buy that statement at all. Yes, they had the market initially, but there are now more players in the market, some with very good range and reasonable prices. And that's going to go even further in the next 18-24 months, with the VW ID range coming out and other players as well. For me, Tesla isn't even on my radar. I don't care for the minimalist interior, and their prices are still more than I'm willing to pay.


mre30mre30 - 4/5/2019 9:49:03 AM
0 Boost
The Tesla is a luxury/status/fashion product. People are buying it because its cool but they generally want only one and when they tire of it, they are on to the next cool thing.

People who really want to save the planet just buy a Toyota Prius or other hybrid product because that is the rational choice


TruthyTruthy - 4/5/2019 5:59:42 PM
+1 Boost
Blackberry once had 95 % of all smartphone sales. Sony's beta once had the dominate position in VCRs. There are plenty of examples of one company dominationg a new technology only to see their positin whither with better competition. Tesla does not have the financial wherewithall to compete with the other manufacturers. Toyota has more cash reserves than most banks.


IVANURI97IVANURI97 - 4/5/2019 12:26:18 PM
+2 Boost
Sales lagging maybe because the S sedan has been out with little styling change for several years, now the 3 looks similar. I think it needs an update in styling. Sales could be down too based on other car companies with better built cars that are either electric/hybrid or just getting better MPG's. EV's are for a small market, and the appeal of the same looking models is growing stale.



SanJoseDriverSanJoseDriver - 4/7/2019 11:15:16 PM
+1 Boost
Yeah, I think the 3 is cannibalizing some sales as well. I have no idea why anyone would buy a base Model S versus a less expensive Model 3 performance. As someone who has both, the size difference is not as dramatic as you would think and the 3 is a lot more fun to drive.


SanJoseDriverSanJoseDriver - 4/7/2019 11:16:21 PM
+1 Boost
Slight correction, have a Model 3 AWD... but if I could afford a base Model S at today's prices I would go for the Model 3 Performance edition.


supermotosupermoto - 4/5/2019 12:48:07 PM
+1 Boost
Tesla gets closer to BK every day. Telsa has $20 billion in debt and payables that will never be paid.

Model S and X are dying quickly and will be totally dead once the Taycan is released. Who wants to be seen in a Model S which was first shown to the press in 2009?
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