Are YOU Buying What Elon's Selling Regarding Robotaxis, Or Is It ANOTHER Distraction From Today's Earnings Call?

Boy, Tesla's Elon Musk makes it really hard to keep rooting for the American electric vehicle manufacturer. Why?

Because Musk continues to make increasingly bold claims that are exceedingly out of touch with reality. His latest came at Monday's Autonomy Investor Day.

The timing of this Investor Day is a bit fishy. It was a couple of days ahead of a critical earnings call set to happen today (Wednesday). Was this a ham-fisted attempt to get out ahead of what's expected to be a rather disastrous call? Seems like it.

That's because when the going gets tough, Musk pulls a trick from the General Motors playbook by utilizing distraction.

So, I've got to ask: Are YOU buying what Musk is selling regarding full autonomy and 1 million robotaxis by 2020? Or, do you suspect this is yet another series of bold claims that have no merit?

...Plenty of observers agreed that 1 million Tesla robotaxis by 2020 is probably not a thing that’s going to happen.

“It’s totally off-base. There’s just no way that that is going to happen the way it was presented. They’re not even close,” Steven Shladover, a retired research engineer at the University of California Berkeley, told me.

“To be polite, I think we saw their vision of the best-case scenario. I think that’s what they rolled out. And their track record would suggest that that best-case scenario doesn’t always pan out the way they hope,” said Lou Whiteman, a contributor at the investment site Motley Fool and a veteran transportation reporter.

“The Tesla Network robotaxi plans seemed half baked, with the company appearing to either not have answers to or not even considered pretty basic question on the pricing, insurance liability, or regulatory and legal requirements,” Cowen analyst Jeffrey Osborne said in a note to clients...

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Hauerg - 4/24/2019 3:36:22 AM

+2 Boost

He did NOT sell "1 million Robotaxis by 2020".
He said 1 million cars by 2020 (Q3ish IIRC) that COULD be used as Robotaxis.

SanJoseDriver - 4/24/2019 4:16:35 AM

-5 Boost

The timing is suspicious (combined with the big Model S/X upgrade today). I have a bad feeling about the earnings announcement.

However, having 1 million cars on the road in 2020 capable of FSD is realistic if Tesla can build 600,000 cars in the next 20 months. They have a run rate of about 25,700 cars a month right now... that is 500,000 cars assuming no improvement in output in the US. Gigafactory 3 in China is going up insanely fast. Even if they do a modest 2k cars a week next year, that would take Tesla to 1 million cars with FSD capability by the end of 2020.

The newest version of Autopilot is pretty damn amazing on the highway, so much better than even 7 months ago when I got the Model 3. With 21x the processing power in the FSD computer, taking that to city streets should be possible this year. The software is already there and all new cars coming off the line today are already training the new CPU with every drive. The chip is not hypothetical, it is in cars right now. The software is not hypothetical, 100+ investors got FSD rides yesterday with no hands on the wheel in PRODUCTION cars.

Brace yourselves if Tesla pulls this off, the automotive world will never be the same ;)

TomM - 4/24/2019 3:50:22 PM

+3 Boost

Until the situation of Liability is settled - and that will take YEARS - I do not see how this can be a plus. There is potential huge liability in taking complete control of the car. IF you can convince a Jury that it was caused by faults in a program - or happened with a car over which you cannot even STEER it by yourself - will put the overall liability for even SMALL fender benders in the manufacturers corner. They will either have to have some type of contract that relieves them of responsibility (That does not always work too) - or the cost of liability will have to be added to the price of the car and hope the Insurance company that underwrites it does not go out of business.

SanJoseDriver - 4/25/2019 2:02:26 AM

+3 Boost

I think the manufacturer will need to accept 100% liability when in full autonomous mode.

skytop - 4/24/2019 7:59:30 AM

+7 Boost

P.T. Barnum Musk is a hustler and hoaxer. The liberal media are his spokesmen. I wonder when his multi dimensional time machine is ready to be unveiled?

Vette71 - 4/25/2019 9:40:09 AM

0 Boost

Interesting thought. Maybe the time machine is being held in reserve to be brought out if Q2 or Q3 don't demonstrate that Q1 was a fluke.

MDarringer - 4/24/2019 8:18:28 AM

+5 Boost

100% BS from his mouth. He needs to be forced out of Tesla for the good of the company.

supermoto - 4/24/2019 10:58:21 AM

+2 Boost

Total desparation. Q1 earnings must be horrible. There is no way regional/federal governments or insurance companies are going to get behind this idea. Who is responsible when the car, driving by itself, runs over and kills a kid? Tesla? The car owner?

Also it was hilarious that Musk said in the presentation that he just totally invented the profitability numbers for the robo-taxi service.

SanJoseDriver - 4/25/2019 2:05:00 AM

+2 Boost

Fred has been a little more pessimistic lately, after writing 4000 pro-Tesla posts I can't blame him.

Truthy - 4/24/2019 2:22:12 PM

0 Boost

He also went after Panasonic. The earnings are being reported after close of business.
The fat lady is clearing her throat.